Investors react to US-Russia summit reaching no agreement
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HELIMA CROFT, GLOBAL HEAD OF COMMODITY STRATEGY AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:
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CAROL SCHLEIF, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, BMO PRIVATE WEALTH, MINNEAPOLIS:
ERIC TEAL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, COMERICA, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA:
EUGENE EPSTEIN, HEAD OF TRADING AND STRUCTURED PRODUCTS, NORTH AMERICA, MONEYCORP, NEW JERSEY:
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TOM DI GALOMA, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF RATES AND TRADING AT MISCHLER FINANCIAL IN PARK CITY, UTAH
MICHAEL ASHLEY SCHULMAN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, RUNNING POINT, EL SEGUNDO, CALIFORNIA:
JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:
A highly anticipated summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday yielded no agreement to resolve or pause Moscow's war in Ukraine, despite both leaders describing the talks in Alaska as productive.During a brief appearance before the media following the nearly three-hour talks, the two leaders said they had made progress on unspecified issues. But they offered no details and took no questions, with the normally loquacious Trump ignoring shouted questions from reporters."There were many, many points that we agreed on. I would say a couple of big ones that we haven't quite got there, but we've made some headway," Trump said, standing in front of a backdrop that read, "Pursuing Peace.""It seems to be the scenario that we anticipated in our note. Soundbites signaling diplomatic progress but few concrete deal specifics. We will be watching to see whether the 'too be continued' outcome is enough to table the secondary sanctions on India for continuing to import Russian oil. Certainly will fall short of anything that will convince the Europeans to consider vacating their Russian energy sanctions.""The only news was absolutely no news out of it. Not sure there will be any market impactful portions - geopolitical issues in general do not tend to preoccupy market attention for very long if at all.""Markets are at new highs despite this conflict going on for three years. Markets care more about consumers, inflation and commentary from Wyoming next week.""The fact that there were no economic sanctions is a positive and markets should breathe a sigh of relief, but it doesn't appear as though a deal is in hand.""If anything, we see opportunity in the energy sector, as oil prices are at pretty low levels here and the prospect of sanctions on oil did not bear out. There could be a relief rally and that would be an opportunity to invest in energy as we head into higher seasonal demands and economic growth beginning to re-accelerate.""Gold and precious metals are likely to sell off because of being an asset class good for safety. Given concerns about inflation, they are a good buying point as well if any weakness.""I don't think anybody expected it to be particularly specific or substantive. It's essentially a first step towards potentially something more. They both kind of said everything diplomatically. But it's more about the significance of the meeting as a whole, as opposed to the content of what they're saying.""Again, I don't think anybody really expected them to suddenly within a couple of hours come up with a very specific set of plans or any kind of blueprint to something. It basically was just showing their willingness to have continued talks to arrive at a conclusion that is beneficial for all parties. And I think this is just the first steps, and many more to come.""Basically, President Trump needs to go back to the European Union and relay what Putin has said. And then he's got to negotiate with Zelenskiy. For the most part, I think they've laid the groundwork for a deal. And my feeling is that it will probably get done, but there's probably a couple more steps. I'm thinking one of those steps will be Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy all meeting in the next month.""They will probably reach a deal in 30 days. I was kind of surprised that they didn't take any questions. So there's a little bit of disappointment in that, but until a deal is done, you can't really take any questions.""Overall, the markets will like it marginally because I think they've made some progress. But I don't think we will be up 400 points in Dow futures on Sunday night.""At this point, it has been three years into the war, so it really shouldn't have much effect. I think markets will take it as status quo, but I think there's only upside from here.""Without Ukraine at the table, there was little chance for a peace accord. That Putin attended at all was significant, but he can't be seen ending the conflict while on American soil meeting with Trump."
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23 minutes ago
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Securing territorial concessions from Ukraine has long been one of Moscow's preconditions for any negotiations on a peace deal. Putin is likely betting that insisting on these concessions, while keeping Ukraine under sustained military pressure, plays to his advantage. Public fatigue over the war is growing in Ukraine, and Putin will be hoping that a weary population may eventually see such a deal as acceptable and even attractive. Russia launched a barrage of fresh attacks against Ukrainian cities overnight, involving more than 300 drones and 30 missiles. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who was excluded from the Alaska summit, has maintained that Kyiv will not agree to territorial concessions. Such a move would be illegal under Ukraine's constitution, which requires a nationwide referendum to approve changes to the country's territorial borders. The assumption behind a land-for-ceasefire deal is that it would enhance Ukrainian and European security. Trump sees it as the first step in bringing Putin to the negotiation table for a broader peace deal, as well as unlocking opportunities for reconstruction. In reality, such a deal would do little to diminish the longer-term Russian threat. Moscow's efforts to shore up and modernise its defence capabilities and neo-imperial ambitions would remain intact. Its hybrid attacks on Europe would also continue, and Ukraine's capacity to secure meaningful reconstruction would be weakened. Whether or not Russia ever opts for a direct military strike on a European Nato member state, it has no need to do so to weaken the continent. Its hybrid operations, which extend well beyond the battlefield, are more than sufficient to erode European resilience over time. Russia's disinformation campaigns and sabotage of infrastructure, including railways in Poland and Germany and undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland and Baltic Sea, are well documented. Its strategic objectives have focused on deterring action on Ukraine and sowing disagreement between its allies, as well as attempting to undermine democratic values in the west. Europe is under pressure on multiple fronts: meeting new defence spending targets of 5% of GDP while economic growth is slowing, reducing the dependence of its supply chains on China and managing demographic challenges. These vulnerabilities make it susceptible to disinformation and have deepened divisions along political and socioeconomic fault lines – all of which Moscow has repeatedly exploited. A land-for-ceasefire deal would not address these threats. For Ukraine, the danger of such a deal is clear. Russia might pause large-scale physical warfare in Ukraine under a deal, but it would almost certainly continue destabilising the country from within. Having never been punished for violating past agreements to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity, such as when it annexed Crimea in 2014, Moscow would have little incentive to honour new ones. The government in Kyiv, and Ukrainian society more broadly, would see any accompanying security guarantees as fragile at best and temporary at worst. The result would probably be a deepening of Ukraine's vulnerabilities. Some Ukrainians might support doubling down on militarisation and investment in defence technologies. Others, losing faith in national security and reconstruction, could disengage or leave the country. Either way, in the absence of national unity, reconstruction would become far more difficult. Making reconstruction harder Ukraine's reconstruction will be costly, to the tune of US$524 billion (£387 billion) according to the World Bank. It will also require managing a web of interconnected security, financial, social and political risks. 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Financing reconstruction would also be more challenging. Public funds from donors and international institutions have helped sustain emergency energy and transport infrastructure repairs in the short term and will continue to play a role. But private investment will be critical moving forward. Investors will be looking not only at Ukraine's geopolitical risk profile, but also its political stability and social cohesion. Few investors would be willing to commit capital in a country that cannot guarantee a stable security and political environment. Taken together, these factors would make large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine nearly impossible. Beyond fundamental issues of accountability and just peace, a land-for-ceasefire deal would be simply a bad bargain. It will almost certainly sow deeper, more intractable problems for Ukraine, Europe and the west. It would undermine security, stall reconstruction and hand Moscow both time and a strategic advantage to come back stronger against a Ukraine that may be ill-prepared to respond. Trump would do well to avoid committing Ukraine to such an arrangement in further talks with Putin over the coming months.
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Business Standard
23 minutes ago
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Alaskan encounter: Only Russian President Putin gained from the meeting
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Time of India
38 minutes ago
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