India's fertility rate drops below replacement level even as population hits 1.46 billion: UN report

Time of India

3 days ago

Live Events
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel
India's population has reached 1.46 billion in 2025, cementing its position as the world's most populous nation, even as its fertility rate continues to decline, according to the United Nations Population Fund 's (UNFPA) State of World Population Report released on Tuesday.The report projects that India's population will peak at around 1.7 billion over the next 40 years before beginning to shrink. In comparison, China's population is estimated to be 1.41 billion this year. Last year, India's population stood at 1.44 billion, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the UN in July.The total fertility rate (TFR) in India has now fallen to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population across generations. The UNFPA report highlights that while the national average reflects progress, it conceals sharp disparities across regions, economic classes and social groups.This contrast has created what the report calls a 'high fertility and low fertility duality.' States such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh continue to show high fertility rates due to poor access to contraception, limited healthcare services and entrenched gender norms. In contrast, states like Delhi, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have sustained below-replacement fertility levels. In these states, many urban, educated middle-class couples are delaying or opting out of parenthood because of rising costs and work-life conflicts.India has seen a significant decline in fertility over the decades, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to around two today. The National Family Health Survey of 2019–21 recorded a TFR of 2.0 for the first time, signaling the shift below replacement level.Despite this progress, the report notes that millions in India still face barriers to making informed reproductive choices. Many women are unable to freely decide if and when to have children. The focus, the UNFPA urges, should shift from concerns over falling fertility to fulfilling reproductive intentions.'This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. The answer lies in greater reproductive agency, a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family,' the report says.Supporting this, a UNFPA-YouGov survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries, including India, found that one in three Indian adults reported experiencing unintended pregnancies. Another 30 percent said they were unable to have as many or as few children as they wanted. Notably, 23 percent experienced both.Financial constraints were the most cited barrier, with nearly four in ten respondents naming it as a reason they could not have the families they desired. Other hurdles included job insecurity (21 percent), housing issues (22 percent), and lack of access to reliable childcare (18 percent).The report calls for a fundamental shift in population policy discourse, urging governments to prioritise reproductive rights and support systems over alarmist reactions to demographic change