
Dollar under pressure as US fiscal anxiety rises
The dollar is heading for its first weekly fall in five weeks against major currencies and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated as US debt concerns that have mounted for years start driving moves in currencies and global debt.
Investor attention has switched from tariff anxiety to US fiscal concerns in a week where Moody's downgraded the US credit rating and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday passed a sweeping tax and spending bill.
Futures contracts tracking Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 share index were steady in European trade on Friday morning as investors balanced the tax-cut boost to corporate earnings with longer-term concerns about the US economy.
"It's good for corporates initially, and clearly you're seeing the flip side of that in Treasury markets," Netwealth CIO Iain Barnes said.
But with long-dated debt yields' tendency to affect valuations of other assets, from global currencies to stocks, he said investors were nervous that any further volatility in 30-year Treasuries could start rippling across global markets.
With the US debt pile already at $US36 trillion, President Donald Trump's plans to slash taxes, cut federal budgets and boost military and border enforcement spending has sparked rollercoaster moves in the long-term debt yields that set the nation's borrowing costs.
The 30-year Treasury yield was four basis points lower but held just above five per cent after hitting a 19-month high in the previous session.
Yields on 30-year Japanese bonds, which hit record highs earlier in the week as selling driven by domestic fiscal and inflation concerns was exacerbated by moves in US debt, recovered slightly, declining by 5 bps to about 3.10 per cent.
Data on Friday showed Japan's core consumer price inflation climbed 3.5 per cent in April in its steepest annual increase for more than two years, raising pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking interest rates.
In the euro area, German Bund yields dipped on but stayed on track for their fifth straight weekly rise, tracking US Treasuries.
The benchmark European debt has sold off despite money markets showing that traders anticipate the European Central Bank cutting its main deposit rate to about 1.75 per cent by year-end.
In currency markets, the euro firmed 0.5 per cent to $1.1335 .
An index tracking the US currency against a basket of peers including the euro and Japan's yen, was 0.2 per cent lower and down 1.3 per cent on the week in its first weekly drop since late April.
Despite the euro's gain, which tends to knock exporters' shares, Europe's Stoxx 600 share index gained 0.3 per cent in early dealings and Germany's Xetra Dax added 0.4 per cent, as traders stayed cautious towards US assets.
Japan's Nikkei also gained 0.5 per cent on Friday, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising by the same amount.
Bitcoin prices dipped from its record high but it was still set for a weekly gain of 6.4 per cent to $US110,796.
Oil prices dropped for a fourth consecutive session and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks, weighed down by renewed supply pressure from another possible OPEC+ output hike in July.
Brent futures fell 0.85 per cent to $US63.89 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.9 per cent to $US60.65.
In precious metals, gold prices rose just more than one per cent to $US3,321 an ounce.
The dollar is heading for its first weekly fall in five weeks against major currencies and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated as US debt concerns that have mounted for years start driving moves in currencies and global debt.
Investor attention has switched from tariff anxiety to US fiscal concerns in a week where Moody's downgraded the US credit rating and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday passed a sweeping tax and spending bill.
Futures contracts tracking Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 share index were steady in European trade on Friday morning as investors balanced the tax-cut boost to corporate earnings with longer-term concerns about the US economy.
"It's good for corporates initially, and clearly you're seeing the flip side of that in Treasury markets," Netwealth CIO Iain Barnes said.
But with long-dated debt yields' tendency to affect valuations of other assets, from global currencies to stocks, he said investors were nervous that any further volatility in 30-year Treasuries could start rippling across global markets.
With the US debt pile already at $US36 trillion, President Donald Trump's plans to slash taxes, cut federal budgets and boost military and border enforcement spending has sparked rollercoaster moves in the long-term debt yields that set the nation's borrowing costs.
The 30-year Treasury yield was four basis points lower but held just above five per cent after hitting a 19-month high in the previous session.
Yields on 30-year Japanese bonds, which hit record highs earlier in the week as selling driven by domestic fiscal and inflation concerns was exacerbated by moves in US debt, recovered slightly, declining by 5 bps to about 3.10 per cent.
Data on Friday showed Japan's core consumer price inflation climbed 3.5 per cent in April in its steepest annual increase for more than two years, raising pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking interest rates.
In the euro area, German Bund yields dipped on but stayed on track for their fifth straight weekly rise, tracking US Treasuries.
The benchmark European debt has sold off despite money markets showing that traders anticipate the European Central Bank cutting its main deposit rate to about 1.75 per cent by year-end.
In currency markets, the euro firmed 0.5 per cent to $1.1335 .
An index tracking the US currency against a basket of peers including the euro and Japan's yen, was 0.2 per cent lower and down 1.3 per cent on the week in its first weekly drop since late April.
Despite the euro's gain, which tends to knock exporters' shares, Europe's Stoxx 600 share index gained 0.3 per cent in early dealings and Germany's Xetra Dax added 0.4 per cent, as traders stayed cautious towards US assets.
Japan's Nikkei also gained 0.5 per cent on Friday, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising by the same amount.
Bitcoin prices dipped from its record high but it was still set for a weekly gain of 6.4 per cent to $US110,796.
Oil prices dropped for a fourth consecutive session and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks, weighed down by renewed supply pressure from another possible OPEC+ output hike in July.
Brent futures fell 0.85 per cent to $US63.89 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.9 per cent to $US60.65.
In precious metals, gold prices rose just more than one per cent to $US3,321 an ounce.
The dollar is heading for its first weekly fall in five weeks against major currencies and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated as US debt concerns that have mounted for years start driving moves in currencies and global debt.
Investor attention has switched from tariff anxiety to US fiscal concerns in a week where Moody's downgraded the US credit rating and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday passed a sweeping tax and spending bill.
Futures contracts tracking Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 share index were steady in European trade on Friday morning as investors balanced the tax-cut boost to corporate earnings with longer-term concerns about the US economy.
"It's good for corporates initially, and clearly you're seeing the flip side of that in Treasury markets," Netwealth CIO Iain Barnes said.
But with long-dated debt yields' tendency to affect valuations of other assets, from global currencies to stocks, he said investors were nervous that any further volatility in 30-year Treasuries could start rippling across global markets.
With the US debt pile already at $US36 trillion, President Donald Trump's plans to slash taxes, cut federal budgets and boost military and border enforcement spending has sparked rollercoaster moves in the long-term debt yields that set the nation's borrowing costs.
The 30-year Treasury yield was four basis points lower but held just above five per cent after hitting a 19-month high in the previous session.
Yields on 30-year Japanese bonds, which hit record highs earlier in the week as selling driven by domestic fiscal and inflation concerns was exacerbated by moves in US debt, recovered slightly, declining by 5 bps to about 3.10 per cent.
Data on Friday showed Japan's core consumer price inflation climbed 3.5 per cent in April in its steepest annual increase for more than two years, raising pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking interest rates.
In the euro area, German Bund yields dipped on but stayed on track for their fifth straight weekly rise, tracking US Treasuries.
The benchmark European debt has sold off despite money markets showing that traders anticipate the European Central Bank cutting its main deposit rate to about 1.75 per cent by year-end.
In currency markets, the euro firmed 0.5 per cent to $1.1335 .
An index tracking the US currency against a basket of peers including the euro and Japan's yen, was 0.2 per cent lower and down 1.3 per cent on the week in its first weekly drop since late April.
Despite the euro's gain, which tends to knock exporters' shares, Europe's Stoxx 600 share index gained 0.3 per cent in early dealings and Germany's Xetra Dax added 0.4 per cent, as traders stayed cautious towards US assets.
Japan's Nikkei also gained 0.5 per cent on Friday, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising by the same amount.
Bitcoin prices dipped from its record high but it was still set for a weekly gain of 6.4 per cent to $US110,796.
Oil prices dropped for a fourth consecutive session and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks, weighed down by renewed supply pressure from another possible OPEC+ output hike in July.
Brent futures fell 0.85 per cent to $US63.89 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.9 per cent to $US60.65.
In precious metals, gold prices rose just more than one per cent to $US3,321 an ounce.
The dollar is heading for its first weekly fall in five weeks against major currencies and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated as US debt concerns that have mounted for years start driving moves in currencies and global debt.
Investor attention has switched from tariff anxiety to US fiscal concerns in a week where Moody's downgraded the US credit rating and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday passed a sweeping tax and spending bill.
Futures contracts tracking Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 share index were steady in European trade on Friday morning as investors balanced the tax-cut boost to corporate earnings with longer-term concerns about the US economy.
"It's good for corporates initially, and clearly you're seeing the flip side of that in Treasury markets," Netwealth CIO Iain Barnes said.
But with long-dated debt yields' tendency to affect valuations of other assets, from global currencies to stocks, he said investors were nervous that any further volatility in 30-year Treasuries could start rippling across global markets.
With the US debt pile already at $US36 trillion, President Donald Trump's plans to slash taxes, cut federal budgets and boost military and border enforcement spending has sparked rollercoaster moves in the long-term debt yields that set the nation's borrowing costs.
The 30-year Treasury yield was four basis points lower but held just above five per cent after hitting a 19-month high in the previous session.
Yields on 30-year Japanese bonds, which hit record highs earlier in the week as selling driven by domestic fiscal and inflation concerns was exacerbated by moves in US debt, recovered slightly, declining by 5 bps to about 3.10 per cent.
Data on Friday showed Japan's core consumer price inflation climbed 3.5 per cent in April in its steepest annual increase for more than two years, raising pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking interest rates.
In the euro area, German Bund yields dipped on but stayed on track for their fifth straight weekly rise, tracking US Treasuries.
The benchmark European debt has sold off despite money markets showing that traders anticipate the European Central Bank cutting its main deposit rate to about 1.75 per cent by year-end.
In currency markets, the euro firmed 0.5 per cent to $1.1335 .
An index tracking the US currency against a basket of peers including the euro and Japan's yen, was 0.2 per cent lower and down 1.3 per cent on the week in its first weekly drop since late April.
Despite the euro's gain, which tends to knock exporters' shares, Europe's Stoxx 600 share index gained 0.3 per cent in early dealings and Germany's Xetra Dax added 0.4 per cent, as traders stayed cautious towards US assets.
Japan's Nikkei also gained 0.5 per cent on Friday, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising by the same amount.
Bitcoin prices dipped from its record high but it was still set for a weekly gain of 6.4 per cent to $US110,796.
Oil prices dropped for a fourth consecutive session and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks, weighed down by renewed supply pressure from another possible OPEC+ output hike in July.
Brent futures fell 0.85 per cent to $US63.89 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.9 per cent to $US60.65.
In precious metals, gold prices rose just more than one per cent to $US3,321 an ounce.
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News.com.au
16 minutes ago
- News.com.au
Coalition ‘ready to work with' Labor on Trump tariff deal, Sussan Ley says
Sussan Ley says she is 'ready to work with' Labor to get a US tariff carve out after Donald Trump doubled duties on steel and aluminium. The US President signed an executive order on Tuesday afternoon (Washington time), raising the levies from 25 per cent to 50 per cent, following through on his vow to do so last week. Only the UK was spared from the new imposts due to a deal inked in May. The tariffs have effectively blocked Australian-made steel from the US market. Reacting to the order on Wednesday, the Opposition Leader said Australia's inclusion was 'not in the spirit' of the Australia-US alliance. 'We note that the United Kingdom has been able to secure an exemption from the latest American steel tariffs and we stand ready to work with the Albanese government to ensure Australia can achieve the same outcome,' Ms Ley said in a statement. 'President Trump's tariffs on our steelmakers are not in the spirit of our century-old partnership and we urge the Americans to give Australia a fair go and remove them. 'The Coalition wants the government to succeed here because that is in our national interest.' Analysts have questioned the merits of the UK's deal, which has still not come into effect. While it was not included in the latest round, British steel and aluminium have been slugged with the original 25 per cent tariffs. The White House has also said it would slap a quota on UK imports. In exchange, the British government gave US firms greater access to parts of the UK economy, including its agricultural industry. Mr Trump included Australia in the blanket tariffs in March after telling Anthony Albanese an exemption was 'under consideration'. Australia was also hit with 10 per cent levies on most goods as part of Mr Trump's 'Liberation Day' imposts. The Prime Minister said on Tuesday he would raise the duties when he meets the US leader on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada later this month. Mr Albanese said it was 'an act of economic self-harm, and it's not the act of a friend, and this just pushes up prices for American purchasers and consumers'. NewsWire understands the details of the leaders' first face-to-face have not been set but both sides expect them to meet. The Albanese government said a deal was before the Trump administration and the ball was in Washington's court.

The Age
21 minutes ago
- The Age
The moment lunch with Tim Wilson turned into an ambush
Wilson's tanned skin turns a deeper shade. I notice our unexpected guest has a plastic loop on her mobile phone case around her middle finger, making it very easy to film us as she fires questions. She's feisty, but her hands are trembling slightly. 'You want nuclear in Australia, and you are a Zionist?' she asks for a third time, not waiting for an answer. 'And you want people killed, and you want babies killed?' Wilson tells her that he is having lunch, and this is grossly inappropriate. Nevertheless, she persists – for a full five minutes. This being Brighton, a well-do-to suburb south-east of Melbourne's CBD with a strong sense of self-worth (think Mosman in Sydney), the discourse soon turns to housing. Our anti-Wilson activist is bitter that her daughter and granddaughter ('who went to Brighton Primary') were forced to move two hours away because of housing affordability. She also says Wilson was invisible on the streets of Goldstein. The antagonists start to align on criticism of the Victorian state Labor government's massive underinvestment in local education. The temperature calms. Wilson masterfully suggests a visit to the local state MP, James Newbury, just down the road. But he can't help himself, slyly querying if bowling up and filming people without permission and verbally abusing them is really the best way to win friends and influence. 'No, no, I do need to do more letter writing, yes,' is her withering rejoinder. A man at the next table decides enough is enough and in a thick European accent tells the local activist to move on. She disappears down the side street. 'Save my love to Zoe,' is Wilson's slightly garbled postscript to break the tension. It's a joking reference to teal independent Zoe Daniel, from whom he has just regained the affluent seat with a significant Jewish community situated on Port Phillip Bay. Wilson asks his cafe neighbour for validation – he is indeed a recognised local face. 'I don't know who you are,' the man replies. 'I just don't like people bothering each other.' The whole thing was excruciating. Who would be a politician? Tim Wilson, that's who. Wilson is 45, a Liberal, and a liberal, one-quarter Armenian, a happily married gay man, carrying a few extra kilos but, frankly, for someone who has just engaged in a gruelling election campaign, a man with pretty great skin. 'It's politics, right,' Wilson says a short time later between mouthfuls of the cafe's signature Abundance Bowl, an enormous pile of salad greens, sweet potato, quinoa, seeds and a fried egg, to which he has deleted the halloumi and added not just avocado but pan seared salmon. He ordered it almost every day of the campaign. I have the similar salmon bowl. The flavour mix is terrific, the mouthfeel excellent. But wine is waved away – it's a Monday – in favour of a double espresso, which sits largely untouched. Today Melbourne feels on the precipice of winter. It is allegedly going to reach 18 degrees, but locals are mistrustful. One passer-by is in a puffer jacket, the next in T-shirt and shorts. Wilson is wearing his campaign uniform: jeans, blue blazer, a crisp shirt, bright-yellow pin lapel. And to be fair, during our 90 minutes together, 14 well-wishers come up to congratulate him. Earlier in our conversation, he says going from civilian life to winning an election and straight into the shadow ministry is 'feeling like you're being shot out of a catapult and haven't quite hit the ground yet. Still from election night there are SMS that I haven't even read. It is not an unwillingness, it's a simple incapacity.' I want to know about winning – and losing. 'I can tell you there are two winnings,' Wilson says. For him, nothing beat the feeling of winning his first preselection in 2016 after Liberal veteran Andrew Robb had retired. 'Everybody expected me lose', but Wilson went all in, resigning from his post as human rights commissioner just to contest. 'Bold,' I venture. 'Bold, but welcome to Tim Town,' he agrees, opening his hands as if to demonstrate 'voila!' – but only for a split second. 'I remember that adrenaline rush, and also quite frankly shock.' This time, victory was not a shock but rather 'a mountain to climb'. At which point he turns to losing. 'Pretty much from the last election day I had a personal and professional purgatory. It feels violent,' he says, describing the post-loss businesslike phone call from the bureaucracy to losing MPs. 'You're out, this person's in, pack up the office, sort that out – bang, bang, bang, bang. 'All of a sudden nothing – and you are out.' A lot of people were very worried. A psychologist friend suggested a chat. He went. 'Part of it is just to vent and get things off your chest,' he says. 'And somebody to listen. I found that very helpful.' The morning after the loss, his husband, Ryan Bolger, a school teacher, told him: 'You can look at this as the moment that ends you – or you can look at this as a gift.' His purpose taken away from him, the couple left Goldstein so Wilson could find his space and his place, moving back to their old apartment in South Yarra, where Wilson undertook a PhD in the carbon economy. 'I don't find making money something that excites me,' he says. His voice quickens in summary mode: 'It's an awful, horrific experience. But anyone who experienced a big professional setback will know those experiences. The difference is you do it in full public glare. And of course, you are known for the last thing you did.' Which in his case, was to lose. The 2025 Goldstein campaign was controversial. The very morning of our lunch, Daniel was on ABC radio talking about dirty tricks and a personal campaign directed at her. Wilson says the campaign was intense. 'We both had very passionate supporters. No one's trying to pretend otherwise.' As to her accusations about attacks on her from groups supporting Wilson, he sits there, anger clearly rising. 'I'm really resisting in light of the difficult circumstances she is facing and living right now – fighting back.' One political commentator describes Wilson as 'charming but very egotistical'. I realise I have known him for a decade, back when I was media editor at The Australian and he was a member of the free market think tank the Institute of Public Affairs and had a higher profile than many Liberal MPs. For Wilson, liberalism – the philosophy that promotes individual rights and freedoms – is the foundation of society. 'I hate the term 'moderate', because my liberalism doesn't come in moderation. I believe in that very strongly,' he says. 'I think what people are used to is this kind of idea that you have these kind of moderates who don't fight, and then they have these conservatives who fight very aggressively, whereas I'm somebody who fights very aggressively and not afraid to.' Which included contacting The Age at 3.45am one morning to protest at one aspect of the paper's coverage, which he is a little sheepish about, explaining he couldn't sleep that night. 'I don't particularly enjoy a fight, but I definitely enjoy a crusade and to be able to go and achieve change,' he says. 'I'm also not afraid of failure.' Wilson played a key role in defeating Labor's policy to change capital gains tax under Bill Shorten; now he is fighting against Labor's proposed tax changes on superannuation. I ask if there could ever be a gay leader of the Liberal Party (subtext – him). 'It's yet to be tested,' he says. 'I don't feel anyone is sitting there thinking this is an insurmountable barrier to anybody. 'There's a time where my relationship with my husband would have found me in gaol, and now it finds me, frankly, barely able to tick a diversity box.' How did the couple – who married in 2018 – meet? 'We actually met at Liberal Party State Council.' 'How romantic,' I reply. Here, Wilson looks down to apparently study his lunch and says something softly to himself. It occurs to me that Wilson might be more confident attacking Labor's superannuation policy than discussing affairs of the heart. But he reasserts himself, not pretending it was the most romantic of settings. 'It wasn't, but nonetheless it is what it was.' Ryan and he have common values, he says, brightening. 'As he says, at least he knew what he was getting himself in for.' Wilson admires Margaret Thatcher, has a poster of Ronald Reagan on his wall, and loves Milton Friedman 'because he explained economics with a charm and a smile'. He name-checks two little known political women, Pauline Sabin, who fought against prohibition, and Katharine Stewart-Murray, a distant British relative, who tried to topple her own prime minister, Neville Chamberlain, over his appeasement of Adolf Hitler in 1938. 'I like Menzies a lot as well because, in the end, he's a man of rebirth, and perhaps like me, he's a man who failed first,' Wilson says with a smile.

Sydney Morning Herald
24 minutes ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
The moment lunch with Tim Wilson turned into an ambush
Wilson's tanned skin turns a deeper shade. I notice our unexpected guest has a plastic loop on her mobile phone case around her middle finger, making it very easy to film us as she fires questions. She's feisty, but her hands are trembling slightly. 'You want nuclear in Australia, and you are a Zionist?' she asks for a third time, not waiting for an answer. 'And you want people killed, and you want babies killed?' Wilson tells her that he is having lunch, and this is grossly inappropriate. Nevertheless, she persists – for a full five minutes. This being Brighton, a well-do-to suburb south-east of Melbourne's CBD with a strong sense of self-worth (think Mosman in Sydney), the discourse soon turns to housing. Our anti-Wilson activist is bitter that her daughter and granddaughter ('who went to Brighton Primary') were forced to move two hours away because of housing affordability. She also says Wilson was invisible on the streets of Goldstein. The antagonists start to align on criticism of the Victorian state Labor government's massive underinvestment in local education. The temperature calms. Wilson masterfully suggests a visit to the local state MP, James Newbury, just down the road. But he can't help himself, slyly querying if bowling up and filming people without permission and verbally abusing them is really the best way to win friends and influence. 'No, no, I do need to do more letter writing, yes,' is her withering rejoinder. A man at the next table decides enough is enough and in a thick European accent tells the local activist to move on. She disappears down the side street. 'Save my love to Zoe,' is Wilson's slightly garbled postscript to break the tension. It's a joking reference to teal independent Zoe Daniel, from whom he has just regained the affluent seat with a significant Jewish community situated on Port Phillip Bay. Wilson asks his cafe neighbour for validation – he is indeed a recognised local face. 'I don't know who you are,' the man replies. 'I just don't like people bothering each other.' The whole thing was excruciating. Who would be a politician? Tim Wilson, that's who. Wilson is 45, a Liberal, and a liberal, one-quarter Armenian, a happily married gay man, carrying a few extra kilos but, frankly, for someone who has just engaged in a gruelling election campaign, a man with pretty great skin. 'It's politics, right,' Wilson says a short time later between mouthfuls of the cafe's signature Abundance Bowl, an enormous pile of salad greens, sweet potato, quinoa, seeds and a fried egg, to which he has deleted the halloumi and added not just avocado but pan seared salmon. He ordered it almost every day of the campaign. I have the similar salmon bowl. The flavour mix is terrific, the mouthfeel excellent. But wine is waved away – it's a Monday – in favour of a double espresso, which sits largely untouched. Today Melbourne feels on the precipice of winter. It is allegedly going to reach 18 degrees, but locals are mistrustful. One passer-by is in a puffer jacket, the next in T-shirt and shorts. Wilson is wearing his campaign uniform: jeans, blue blazer, a crisp shirt, bright-yellow pin lapel. And to be fair, during our 90 minutes together, 14 well-wishers come up to congratulate him. Earlier in our conversation, he says going from civilian life to winning an election and straight into the shadow ministry is 'feeling like you're being shot out of a catapult and haven't quite hit the ground yet. Still from election night there are SMS that I haven't even read. It is not an unwillingness, it's a simple incapacity.' I want to know about winning – and losing. 'I can tell you there are two winnings,' Wilson says. For him, nothing beat the feeling of winning his first preselection in 2016 after Liberal veteran Andrew Robb had retired. 'Everybody expected me lose', but Wilson went all in, resigning from his post as human rights commissioner just to contest. 'Bold,' I venture. 'Bold, but welcome to Tim Town,' he agrees, opening his hands as if to demonstrate 'voila!' – but only for a split second. 'I remember that adrenaline rush, and also quite frankly shock.' This time, victory was not a shock but rather 'a mountain to climb'. At which point he turns to losing. 'Pretty much from the last election day I had a personal and professional purgatory. It feels violent,' he says, describing the post-loss businesslike phone call from the bureaucracy to losing MPs. 'You're out, this person's in, pack up the office, sort that out – bang, bang, bang, bang. 'All of a sudden nothing – and you are out.' A lot of people were very worried. A psychologist friend suggested a chat. He went. 'Part of it is just to vent and get things off your chest,' he says. 'And somebody to listen. I found that very helpful.' The morning after the loss, his husband, Ryan Bolger, a school teacher, told him: 'You can look at this as the moment that ends you – or you can look at this as a gift.' His purpose taken away from him, the couple left Goldstein so Wilson could find his space and his place, moving back to their old apartment in South Yarra, where Wilson undertook a PhD in the carbon economy. 'I don't find making money something that excites me,' he says. His voice quickens in summary mode: 'It's an awful, horrific experience. But anyone who experienced a big professional setback will know those experiences. The difference is you do it in full public glare. And of course, you are known for the last thing you did.' Which in his case, was to lose. The 2025 Goldstein campaign was controversial. The very morning of our lunch, Daniel was on ABC radio talking about dirty tricks and a personal campaign directed at her. Wilson says the campaign was intense. 'We both had very passionate supporters. No one's trying to pretend otherwise.' As to her accusations about attacks on her from groups supporting Wilson, he sits there, anger clearly rising. 'I'm really resisting in light of the difficult circumstances she is facing and living right now – fighting back.' One political commentator describes Wilson as 'charming but very egotistical'. I realise I have known him for a decade, back when I was media editor at The Australian and he was a member of the free market think tank the Institute of Public Affairs and had a higher profile than many Liberal MPs. For Wilson, liberalism – the philosophy that promotes individual rights and freedoms – is the foundation of society. 'I hate the term 'moderate', because my liberalism doesn't come in moderation. I believe in that very strongly,' he says. 'I think what people are used to is this kind of idea that you have these kind of moderates who don't fight, and then they have these conservatives who fight very aggressively, whereas I'm somebody who fights very aggressively and not afraid to.' Which included contacting The Age at 3.45am one morning to protest at one aspect of the paper's coverage, which he is a little sheepish about, explaining he couldn't sleep that night. 'I don't particularly enjoy a fight, but I definitely enjoy a crusade and to be able to go and achieve change,' he says. 'I'm also not afraid of failure.' Wilson played a key role in defeating Labor's policy to change capital gains tax under Bill Shorten; now he is fighting against Labor's proposed tax changes on superannuation. I ask if there could ever be a gay leader of the Liberal Party (subtext – him). 'It's yet to be tested,' he says. 'I don't feel anyone is sitting there thinking this is an insurmountable barrier to anybody. 'There's a time where my relationship with my husband would have found me in gaol, and now it finds me, frankly, barely able to tick a diversity box.' How did the couple – who married in 2018 – meet? 'We actually met at Liberal Party State Council.' 'How romantic,' I reply. Here, Wilson looks down to apparently study his lunch and says something softly to himself. It occurs to me that Wilson might be more confident attacking Labor's superannuation policy than discussing affairs of the heart. But he reasserts himself, not pretending it was the most romantic of settings. 'It wasn't, but nonetheless it is what it was.' Ryan and he have common values, he says, brightening. 'As he says, at least he knew what he was getting himself in for.' Wilson admires Margaret Thatcher, has a poster of Ronald Reagan on his wall, and loves Milton Friedman 'because he explained economics with a charm and a smile'. He name-checks two little known political women, Pauline Sabin, who fought against prohibition, and Katharine Stewart-Murray, a distant British relative, who tried to topple her own prime minister, Neville Chamberlain, over his appeasement of Adolf Hitler in 1938. 'I like Menzies a lot as well because, in the end, he's a man of rebirth, and perhaps like me, he's a man who failed first,' Wilson says with a smile.