Labour faces electoral carnage with welfare u-turns and policy blunders
Labour could have faced electoral wipeout if it went ahead with £5billion of benefits cuts according to new research from one of the party's own MPs.
A dossier compiled by Jon Trickett and shared with the Sunday Mail details 176 seats with a Labour majority less than the number of Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claimants.
The veteran parliamentarian used House of Commons data to prepare a report comparing MPs' majorities to the number of disability benefit claimants and Winter Fuel Allowance recipients in their constituencies.
Both groups face being hit by cuts aimed at rebalancing the country's finances.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has performed a partial u-turn on winter fuel, and last week agreed to limit changes to PIP in the face of a backbench rebellion, however serious concerns remain within the party.
According to Trickett's research deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, health secretary Wes Streeting and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper are among those whose majority was smaller than the number of PIP claimants.
In Scotland - where the Scottish Government controls the equivalent benefit to PIP - all but one Labour MP has more winter fuel claimants than their majority.
Trickett, said his report 'shows the enormous damage which the welfare changes would inflict on thousands of disabled including some of the most unfortunate people in every single community.'
The MP added: 'It also shows clearly the potential political damage to the Labour Party from policies that make people worse off, are unjust and which fail to deliver the positive change people need.
'The PM finally saw that he needed to find reverse gear. However the current proposals don't go far enough and we need wiser counsel to put matters right.
'The battle for justice is not yet over.'
The Prime Minister had to make concessions to the welfare bill as more than 100 of his own MPs backed an amendment that would have effectively killed it.
Speaking to the Welsh Labour conference yesterday Starmer promised to reform welfare 'in a Labour way' and said his party wouldn't 'take away the safety net that vulnerable people rely on'.
DWP Secretary Liz Kendall confirmed on Friday that existing PIP claimants wouldn't be affected by new eligibility criteria due to come into force in April 2026.
The health element of Universal Credit, given to those with disabilities or health problems affecting their ability to work, will be halved to around £200 a month for new claimants.
Existing claimants and those with terminal or life-long and severe illness will be exempt.
Despite the changes some Labour MPs are still not satisfied and will continue to oppose the plans when they come before the Commons on Tuesday.
Grangemouth MP Brian Leishman said: 'It sounds to me like it will be the creation of a two-tier welfare system. That is completely unacceptable. There has not been any consultation with organisations and charities.
'We've got to have a proper system that is caring and compassionate and meets people's needs. That is not what they are offering with these concessions.
'I have not changed my mind. I hope the reasoned amendment will still be there and it gets selected. If not then I will be voting against the government.'
Disabled people in Scotland don't receive PIP, instead getting Adult Disability Payment directly through the Scottish Government although it is funded via the block grant from Westminster.
Labour's changes would have a direct impact on the Scottish Government's funding with Holyrood ministers likely to have to make cuts to Scotland's benefits bill as well.
Senior Scottish Labour sources fear the government's very public concessions on the welfare reforms and winter fuel payments as well as their refusal to compensate WASPI women could damage them at the next Holyrood election.
One MSP said: 'This has been a disaster and makes us look completely incompetent. When the Prime Minister is lurching from one position to another on major policies it looks as though he doesn't know what he's doing.
'I'd be surprised if this mess didn't have an effect next year for us.'
Trade unions have also spoken out against the reformed welfare bill, with Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham calling for it to be scrapped completely.
Scotland's most senior trade union leader, the STUC General Secretary Roz Foyer told the Sunday Mail the plans were a 'pernicious attack' on vulnerable people.
She said: 'These welfare reforms from Labour might as well have been typed on a Tory letterhead.
'In no way is this the 'change' that voters were promised during the election. 'Irrespective of the Bill's fate, with inequality growing, billionaires getting richer and working people finding it harder to keep their heads above water, it's incredulous that a Labour Government would make carers, the sick and disabled their first targets for so-called reform.
'Almost 400,000 people look set to fall into poverty as a result of this pernicious attack, 50,000 of whom are children.
'There will also be a clear knock-on effect to the Scottish Government's ability to mitigate yet more UK Government austerity.
'These are neither Labour values nor the values of the Labour movement.'
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn called for Scottish Labour MPs to vote against the plans while Citizens Advice Scotland said the government's concessions were 'nowhere near enough'.
Of Scotland's 37 Labour MPs, 10 signed an amendment to the original bill which would have stopped it progressing. Since the concessions were announced, only Leishman has declared he will continue to oppose the bill with the other nine Labour MPs failing to respond to requests from the Sunday Mail.
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