Messy Democratic primaries could hurt party's chances of retaking the House

Politico

22-05-2025

Democrats are warning an unusually chaotic and expensive primary season in 2026 could hamper their efforts to retake the House.
Interviews with more than a dozen Democratic lawmakers and strategists reflect a growing anxiety that next year's primaries may be more combative and complicated than ever before — as waves of candidates frustrated with the GOP-controlled Washington and the Democratic Party's response to President Donald Trump crowd into primaries.
An increasing number of them are urging House campaign leaders to intervene to stop messy primaries from siphoning off valuable resources that they argued would be better deployed in the general election.
They may get their wish.
House Majority PAC, the super PAC closely aligned with Democratic House leadership, said in a statement that it is 'not ruling anything out' on whether to wade into both Democratic and Republican House primaries next year, 'doing whatever it takes to flip the House.' The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said in a statement if it 'see[s] a need to get involved in a Democratic primary' to win back the House, then 'we will.'
Democrats are feeling newly energized about their chances to take back the House next year. As the House GOP gears up to push through a megabill extending many of the tax cuts Democrats had used in their 2018 midterm message, they're ready to deploy the same playbook to attack Trump's domestic agenda. They've seen increased candidate recruitment and the party overperform on redder turf in recent special elections. But the surge in candidates and potential spikes in donations could be too much of a good thing for Democrats if there's an expensive, messy pileup in competitive districts before they even face a Republican.
It's prompted private debate and concerns among Democratic lawmakers who are weighing their strategies for flipping the House back. And increased action — and spending — in safe-seat districts could also complicate their strategy, Democrats said.
'There's going to be so many crowded primaries, so many people stepping up against Trump, and then so many different players throwing around real money in these primaries,' said Ian Russell, a Democratic consultant who served as the DCCC political director in 2014 and 2016. 'But that creates some tension between all the energy coming out of these primaries and the party trying to shape desired matchups.'
'Yes, it's going to be chaos,' Russell said.
Democrats have meddled in their own House primaries before — either in direct endorsements and spending or behind-the-scenes maneuvering. But some are calling for the party to be even more aggressive in shaping the outcome of primary campaigns next year.
'I think we need to start looking at how we can coalesce and consolidate behind a strong candidate in the primary,' said Rep. Derek Tran, a California Democrat who narrowly advanced through his state's top-two primary system in his 2024 run. 'I understand other people feel differently, but … I would have been able to win by bigger margins if the DCCC, anyone in leadership, chose to play in primaries.'
Doug Herman, a California-based Democratic strategist, said party leadership 'damn well better be intervening' in its own primaries and, in fact, 'should be doing more of it.'
Their urgency stems from an explosion of spending from outside groups to shape the primary landscape and a huge number of candidates eager to retake the House. Back in 2018, the last time Democrats had a shot at regaining control of the House, nearly $26 million poured into primaries from outside groups. By 2022, that figure ballooned to nearly $100 million, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Elections Commission filings.
That surge in cash has been primarily driven by cryptocurrency-backed super PACs, like FairShake, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, known as AIPAC, which formed its own super PAC, United Democracy Project, in 2021. The AIPAC-aligned super PAC and crypto-backed groups largely kept their primary spending on safe-seat districts for both Democrats and Republicans in 2022 and 2024. But it's not clear whether that will hold in 2026.
'Everything is on the table,' said Josh Vlastos, a spokesperson for FairShake PAC.
In a statement, Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for United Democracy Project, said the group is 'looking at both Republican and Democratic opportunities' to expand 'the pro-Israel bipartisan majority in Congress' and 'anticipates being highly-involved in a number of races opposing anti-Israel incumbents, defending pro-Israel Members of Congress against anti-Israel challengers, and in open seats where there is a detractor of the US-Israel relationship.'
But they're not the only players. EMILY's List, the Democratic Majority for Israel, Working Families Party, Justice Democrats, VoteVets, J Street Action, 314 Action Fund, Congressional Hispanic Caucuses' BOLD PAC and many others dropped at least $1 million, if not much more, into primaries over the last few cycles.
'I think spending [from outside groups] will continue to increase [in 2026], but the number of open seats, the number of retirements we get, that could determine whether the spending gets super-charged,' said Dan Sena, who served as the executive director of the DCCC in 2018.
And there are new groups, too. Leaders We Deserve, the super PAC co-founded by Democratic National Committee Vice Chair David Hogg, has committed to dropping $20 million on safe-seat blue districts, hoping to take out what he calls 'asleep-at-the-wheel' incumbents.
Democrats might look beyond their own primaries, too. Democratic money has gone towards boosting GOP candidates perceived to be weaker in a general election in the past. Last cycle, for example, now-Sen. Adam Schiff boosted GOP candidates to glide to victory in a general election, rather than face a one-on-one battle against another Democrat. In the 2022 cycle, Democrats elevated an election-denying GOP primary candidate who bested then-Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) in the primary.
House Majority PAC is leaving that door open again. But a DCCC spokesperson, in another statement, said it 'does not get involved in Republican primaries.'
But it is the Democratic side where strategists and lawmakers said they hope the party will focus. Those calling for more interventions from party leadership ticked through several hotspots. Atop most lists is California, where the state's top-two primary system makes it possible for two Republicans to block a Democratic candidate from making it to the general election if the field is splintered. Several Democrats flagged California's 22nd and 40th Districts, a pair of battleground seats held by Republican Reps. David Valado and Young Kim, as two examples where they could see a fragmented Democratic vote due to high candidate interest.
'We want to make sure we don't have super crowded fields split all the votes and then end up with two Republicans,' said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.). 'We obviously don't want to get boxed out.'
Democratic leaders could also step in when repeat candidates try again, while other first-time candidates are also entering the race. Democrats are already breathing easier in Michigan, where Carl Marlinga opted against a third run in a swing district in the Detroit suburbs despite some early moves towards one, opting instead to endorse a new candidate.
'To me, those races where we've had retreads are the fire alarms for national Democrats because voters already told us what the score is,' said one Democratic consultant, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. 'That's where national Democrats have to be aggressive.'
The DCCC did just that last year, when it added then-state Rep. Janelle Bynum to its 'Red to Blue' list over Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an attorney and the 2022 Democratic nominee who lost that fall.
'To give ourselves the best shot, we need our best candidates running the toughest races,' said Bynum, who ultimately won her primary and the general election contest in 2024. 'That'll take an all hands on deck approach — from the DCCC to national ideological groups to state and local groups — to ensure we uplift those candidates in the primary and get the job done in the general.'
Another district where this could present a challenge is Colorado's 8th District, where former Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who lost to Rep. Gabe Evans in 2024, has announced another run. The Colorado Sun reported earlier this month that her aides said they were mistreated by Caraveo and that she appeared to attempt suicide in situations witnessed by staffers, though she's stressed that she regretted her treatment of staff and was getting care.
'If you don't get involved, you run the risk of limiting the number of seats in the general, but at the same time, they have to be wary of the backlash,' said a Colorado-based Democratic consultant.
Jessica Piper contributed to this report.