UFC Atlanta predictions, odds: Full Fight Night picks for prelims, main card
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After one of the biggest fight cards of the year in Newark, the UFC heads to Atlanta for a Fight Night.
Thirteen UFC fights are getting primetime treatment on ESPN, beginning at 10 p.m. ET.
Last week's card, though highly entertaining, didn't go great from a betting perspective with a 4-8 mark that included a loss on the main event with a bad bet on Sean O'Malley.
We look to turn things around this weekend in Atlanta.
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman has been dealing with physical issues for most of his career, unable to run due to the accumulation of knee injuries dating back to his college wrestling days.
Usman once won 19 straight fights, resulting in a lengthy title reign that spanned nearly three years and included five title defenses.
All of this is to say that Usman is a legend, and seeing him as a +220 underdog to fifth-ranked Joaquin Buckley is a tough reality for him.
Usman is unlikely to win any striking exchanges in this fight, and the only hope is that his cardio can outlast Buckley's. But even there, I don't have much hope for Usman.
Buckley's takedown defense has improved dramatically, stopping wrestling attempts from fellow college wrestler Colby Covington last time out.
If Buckley is as improved as we've seen in recent fights, I suspect he wins this fight rather easily, especially if Usman is getting hit with hard punches.
Buckley wins this one, potentially by knockout, but I'll again go to a same-game-parlay to lower the price of a big favorite at the top of the card.
Recommendation: Buckley wins in Over 5.5 minutes (-150, DraftKings)
Edmen Shahbazyan weighs in.
Zuffa LLC
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski
The 'Golden Boy' is back in the Octagon after previously being on the fast track to welterweight title contention.
Edmen Shahbazyan then fell on hard times, unable to stop a takedown, seemingly even if his life depended on it.
At one point early in his career, Shahbazyan was headlining fight cards, but his 65 percent take-down defense rate is simply not going to cut it at this level.
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From a fight promotion perspective, I hate this booking for Shahbazyan, as Petroski is a college wrestler from the University of North Carolina and Bloomsburg University.
Petroski is always game and trains at Marquez MMA in Philadelphia, home of Joe Pyfer and Sean Brady.
Shahbazyan has the better striking, but we have zero proof he's improved his takedown defense enough that he can compete on the ground with a college wrestler.
Back Petroski here as the underdog, as Shahbazyan's suspect takedown defense makes him a major liability as a favorite.
Recommendation: Andre Petroski ML (+154, FanDuel)
Joaquin Buckley reacts to winning a fight in May 2023.
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
More UFC Atlanta picks
Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick: Maverick ML (+200, Caesars Sportsbook)
Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos: Fight goes to decision (-102, FanDuel)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (+110, BetMGM)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy: Sy by KO/TKO in Round 2 or 3 (+650, FanDuel)
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato: Bellato by KO/TKO (-125, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee: Chiesa by submission in Round 2 or 3 (+460, FanDuel)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho: Wellmaker by KO/TKO in Round 2 or 3 (+210, FanDuel)
Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa: Pass
Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman: Over 2.5 rounds (+105, DraftKings)
Phil Rowe vs. Ange Loosa: Loosa by decision (+125, FanDuel)
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Vanessa Demopoulos: Horth inside the distance (+400, BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he's showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley - Welterweight Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick - Women's Flyweight Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos - Bantamweight Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage - Middleweight Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski - Middleweight Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy - Light Heavyweight Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato - Light Heavyweight Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee - Welterweight Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho - Bantamweight Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa - Flyweight Ricky Simón vs. Cameron Smotherman - Bantamweight Phil Rowe vs. Ange Loosa - Welterweight Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Vanessa Demopoulos - Women's Flyweight ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 13: (L-R) Kamaru Usman of Nigeria and Joaquin Buckley face off during the ... More UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at State Farm Arena on June 13, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Kamaru Usman (20-4) , the former UFC welterweight champion, enters UFC Atlanta on a three-fight losing skid. The 38-year-old last fought in October 2023, when he dropped a split decision to Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight matchup. Usman lost his 170-pound crown to Edwards via a head-kick knockout at UFC 278 in August 2022. He dropped the rematch at UFC 286 in March of 2023 via a majority decision. Before his loss, Usman had defended the title five times. Usman is the No. 5 ranked fighter in the UFC's welterweight weight class. He has a career record of 20-3. Joaquin Buckley (21-6) is the No. 7 fighter in the UFC's 170-pound weight class. The 31-year-old Buckley is one quite a run since dropping to welterweight in 2023. Buckley is 6-0 during his current welterweight run with four knockouts and two decision wins. He fought four times in 2024, picking up a knockout win over Vicente Luque, a decision victory over Nursulton Ruziboev, a knockout over two-time UFC title challenger Stephen Thompson. Buckley finished the year with a doctor stoppage TKO win over former interim UFC welterweight champion Colby Covington in December. ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 13: (L-R) Rose Namajunas and Miranda Maverick face off during the UFC Fight ... More Night ceremonial weigh-in at State Farm Arena on June 13, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) Rose Namajunas (13-7) was 2-1 and had under two years of professional MMA experience when she fought Carla Esparza for the UFC women's strawweight title on the season finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 20. Esparza won that December 2014 bout by submission, claiming the inaugural 115-pound title. Over the next few years, Namajunas was essentially learning on the job, and she learned well, running up a record of 4-1 between October 2015 and April 2017. In November 2017, Namajunas stepped into the Octagon to face then-UFC strawweight titleholder Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The champ was a -700 favorite on fight night, while the challenger checked in at +500. Namajunas stunned the MMA world that night, scoring an upset first-round knockout win to become the champ. Proving her victory was not a fluke, Namajunas defeated Jedrzejczyk by decision in their rematch in April 2018. Namajunas lost the title in her second attempted defense when Jessica Andrade scored a slam knockout win at UFC 237. A non-title fight victory over Andrade, who dropped the belt in August 2019 to Zhang Weili, followed. That win earned Namajunas another shot at the title. In April 2021, Namajunas regained the belt with a perfectly timed head kick to stop Weili in the first round. She defeated the former champ by decision in their rematch in November 2021. Namajunas surrendered the title to Esparza in May 2022 in a tepid performance. Since losing the title, Namajunas is 2-2 at 125 pounds, losing a decision to Manon Fiorot in September 2023, defeating Amanda Ribas by decision in March 2024 and beating Tracy Cortez by decision in July 2024. In her most recent outing, Namajunas dropped a decision to Erin Blanchfield in November. Namajunas is the No. 7 ranked UFC women's flyweight fighter. Miranda Maverick (15-5) joined the UFC in 2020 after spending most of her time with Invicta FC. At the time, she was 7-2 and coming off a 'Performance of the Night' bonus-winning decision win over Pearl Gonzalez. Maverick opened her UFC career with two wins. The promotion then matched her against another young fighter, Maycee Barber. Barber was on a two-fight losing skid at the time. She ended that run of defeats with a split-decision win over Maverick. Things did not get any easier for Maverick in her next matchup, as the UFC booked her opposite Erin Blanchfield, who was 1-0 in the UFC, but riding a four-fight winning streak. Blanchfield kept that winning streak intact with a unanimous decision win over Maverick. Since those back-to-back setbacks, Maverick has gone 6-1 with her only loss being a June 2023 decision to Jasmine Jasudavicius. She is 4-0 in her most recent bouts, and coming off a unanimous decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth in December. Maverick is ranked 11th in the UFC's 125-pound division. ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 13: Joaquin Buckley is interviewed by Brendan Fitzgerald on stage during the ... More UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at State Farm Arena on June 13, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) When the betting lines opened for the UFC Atlanta main event, Usman was a +220 betting underdog to the -275 Buckley. Today, Buckley is the -285 betting favorite, while the former UFC champ is a +225 betting underdog. Usman has received 70 percent of the bets on this fight, while 56 percent of the handle has come in on Buckley. The betting pick is for Buckley to win via decision, but there's a chance of a Buckley knockout victory. ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 13: Rose Namajunas poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial ... More weigh-in at State Farm Arena on June 13, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC) When the betting opened for the UFC Atlanta co-main event, Namajunas was a -275 favorite over Maverick, who came in at +220. Those odds have shifted slightly. Today, Namajunas is listed at -250, while Maverick is the +200 betting underdog. Bettors have placed most of their wagers on Maverick (75 percent), while most of the money is on Namajunas (85 percent). The betting pick is for Namajunas to beat Maverick by decision. *Odds via BetMGM UFC Atlanta results, winners and losers and more will be updated live throughout tonight's pay-per-view card.
