SP 500 Futures Analysis & Targets

Globe and Mail

18-05-2025

S&P 500 Futures
The chart is key to this analysis.
(ESM25)
From 4/7/25,
The big plunge overnight took it to 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4850.00.
Here is what is possible on a failure to get back above 38.2% back to the 2022 low at 5153.50 and what to look for if it does.
You can use 5153.50 as the swing point for the day and longer term.
This is now 23.6% back to the ATH as well as a major Gann square. Not getting back above this level and taking out 4850.00 can send this market a lot lower. The first target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target area is 4075.00 to 4036.75, this is 38.2% back to the 2009 low, 78.6% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square.
Holding 4850.00 and then closing back above 5153.50 would be a very positive sign and a new ATH could eventually follow. As always the first real test will be 38.2% back at 5340.00, a failure to get above here keeps the short term trend negative and a new low can quickly follow. The longer term targets are 61.8% at 5652.00 and then the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square, 78.6% back to the ATH at 5877.00 and the 200 day average at 5896.00.
ESM25
5/18/25
From last week,
The rally from 4850.00 (23.6% back to the 2009 low) has now taken out 61.8% back to the ATH at 5652.00, this will be the key level for the next week. The long term target remains a new ATH, however you always have to watch the 78.6% level, as this can cause a sharp setback.
Use 4652.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the long term target is a new ATH. The short term target area is the 5850.25 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the ATH at 5880.00, a setback from this area can cause a quick selloff. Following the ONE44 78.6% rule, the setback could be 78.6% the other way, however as always we will be watching every retracement to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the long term target. The 200 day average is at 5775.00. Above 5880.00 there is the 5996.50 major Gann square and then the cluster of major Gann squares that sent this market lower between 6102.00 and 6142.00.
The big rally this week took it through the 5850.25 major Gann square and 78.6% at 5880.00 without any hesitation and it now has 4 closes above it, so this will be the key level for next week.
Use 5877.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next few are 5996.50, then the cluster of major Gann squares that already sent this market down to 23.6% (4850.00) to the 2009 low between 6102.00 to 6142.00 and then 6290.75. We will be watching the retracements below for any sign that the current trend is changing.
Below it, The short term target is 23.6% back to the 4/7/25 low at 5706.00, this is also a major Gann square, holding this area keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow. The longer term target area is the 5566.00 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the same low at 5540.00, taking this level would turn the short term trend negative.
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