New Jersey governor's race: Democrat Sherrill leads Republican Ciatterelli by six points in 2026 bellwether
The November gubernatorial election is among those considered a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections. Congressional Republicans currently cling onto a razor-thin majority nearly eight months into President Donald Trump's second term.
With just three months until the general election, Sherrill has 48% support and Ciattarelli has 42% support, according to a StimSight Research Poll for InsiderNJ released Monday.
Just 32% of respondents said they were definite about voting for Sherrill and 31% said they were definite about Ciattarelli, suggesting there's room for movement on either side.
The survey – conducted July 18-24 – had 1% of probable voters saying that they would vote for a third party. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.
New Jersey voters consider affordability and taxes the top issues in this contest. The poll had 53% of respondents say affordability was the top issue and 43% said it was taxes.
Out of those who answered affordability as their main concern, 36% said Sherrill and 34% said Ciattarelli when asked which candidate would best address the problem.
The Republican candidate was overwhelmingly seen as the best candidate to lower taxes: 50% answered Ciattarelli, while 15% said Sherrill.
The poll showed 54% believed Sherrill would be able to provide economic opportunities for New Jersey families, while 49% said the same of Ciattarelli.
Protecting Social Security and Medicare remains a top concern among New Jersey voters, with 30% citing it as part of the broader affordability crisis gripping the state. Just 36% of respondents said they support Trump's "big, beautiful bill," while a majority – 51% of respondents – said they believe it would hurt New Jersey families. Coming in fourth place, "stand up to Trump" was considered the top issue in November's contest by 27% of respondents.
Trump and incumbent Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy received near-identical job approval ratings from Garden State voters, at 44% and 45% respectively, according to the poll. As for who's to blame for the state's current challenges, opinions are split: 37% of respondents pointed to state leadership in Trenton, 27% blamed the federal government in Washington, and 34% say both are at fault.
"The Murphy and Trump numbers are basically a wash. That suggests voters are looking for someone they can trust to address their economic worries, and not someone who just takes swings at the leadership of the opposite party," Patrick Murray, of StimSight Research, said in a statement.
The poll showed 54% of respondents strongly agree and 12% somewhat agree when asked whether the Republican Party today seems too concerned with catering to Trump.
The poll was commissioned by InsiderNJ, which lists Democratic National Committeeman John F.X. Graham as the publisher.
Sherrill, a sitting U.S. congresswoman representing New Jersey's 11th district, leveraged criticism of Trump and former Department of Government Efficiency chief Elon Musk to emerge from a field of five experienced rivals in the June primary. She is a former Navy helicopter pilot and former federal prosecutor and has held her House seat since 2019.
Ciattarelli, a Trump-endorsed former state lawmaker and businessman, defeated four rivals to earn the Republican nomination. He ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2021.
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