Time to send money? UAE remittances to India, Philippines surge after Trump's win
'We observed a surge in remittances to India and the Philippines,' said a representative from super app Botim. 'We have seen a three per cent increase in the transaction numbers to India and around four per cent increase in Philippines peso transaction numbers for the first 12 days of November 2024 over the same period in October 24."
"Since the Nepalese rupee moves in tandem with the Indian rupee, USD/NPR reached an all-time high of 135.79 in November 2024. Additionally, we observed a 36 per cent increase in transaction numbers from September to October. Bangladesh transactions increased also by 32 per cent month on month as well," added the representative.
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On Monday, the Indian rupee weakened to its lowest level on record with likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helping off a sharper decline.
"The recent US elections have had a profound impact on global financial markets, driving up the US dollar and leading to a sharp decline in several Asian currencies," said Adeeb Ahamed, Managing Director of LuLu Financial Holdings. "This shift has triggered an increase in remittance volumes particularly in the UAE, with customers taking advantage of favourable exchange rates to send money back home. Remittances from the UAE to India have risen, with increases observed in other corridors as well."
He explained that expats had responded positively to the market changes. 'The ability to maximize the value of funds transferred to families and communities in their home countries underscores the critical role of efficient remittance services during such economic shifts," he said.
Remit or hold?
However, according to experts, it may not be just yet time to remit. 'All in all, the election of Donald Trump significantly strengthened the bullish tale in the dollar, which has already priced in large perceived changes in the expected path of the US fiscal-monetary policy mix and the looming tariff issues,' said Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer, Century Financial. 'As 2025 approaches, the dollar seems to continue riding a confirmed bullish trend. So, it would be better to wait a while before remitting.'
His comments were supported by Naveed Ali, Director of finance at Zand Digital Bank. "The USD is likely to remain strong in the short term. Given the Federal Reserve's high interest rates and economic conditions in the US, this will potentially keep pressure on currencies like rupees, pesos and other currencies. Hold if you are willing to wait for better rates and can tolerate the risk of further depreciation.'
Market outlook
According to Naveed, the short-term outlook for several currencies including the rupees and pesos will depend on multiple factors. 'These include but are not limited to global economic trends, regional dynamics, and domestic factors such as inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and geopolitical risks. In short, a strong US dollar will continue to intensify pressure on the value of rupee, peso and other free-floating Middle Eastern currencies.'
Vijay explained how the global market is developing now. 'The aftershocks from the Trump earthquake are more obvious now,' he said. "The dollar rose further on Tuesday, to its highest since it jumped against the Euro after the threat of customs duties promised by Donald Trump. More currencies could be more affected by the entry into force of Trump's new customs tariffs, especially the Chinese yuan. The US president-elect wants to raise import taxes to 20 per cent for products entering the country, even those from the European Union, and has promised to hike it up as high as 60 per cent for imports coming from China.'
He added that the UAE dirham would benefit greatly under the leadership of Trump as the AED is pegged to the USD.
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