Aug 16 Perth form analysis of all eight Belmont races

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7 days ago

RACE 8
(2) COUNTRY GOD is undefeated across a trial and two race starts this preparation and gives the impression the step-up to 1,400m will be ideal. He defeated Riva Aquarama (subsequent winner) and Friar's Legacy (subsequent winner) last start to strengthen his formline up even more. Looks hard to beat.
(1) CAPE LEEUWIN took full advantage of a soft lead at Pinjarra last start and only rises 1kg from the win. Steps up from 1,200m to 1,400m now but Brad Parnham has options from his inside draw.
Stablemate (3) BUNDABERG only won a Maiden last start but did it with ease and won two trials leading into it to suggest he has come back a bigger and better horse this prep.
(4) MY AUTHORITAH was not overly convincing when breaking through at short 1-2 odds first-up.
RACE 10 (BEST BET)
(3) SENSESSIONAL just about ticks every box here. His first-up win in a similar field was soft and while he meets them 2kg worse off now, he has won three from four second-up and is undefeated four from four at this track and distance. It would be a big surprise if something turned the tables on him.
(5) INVESTMENTSTRATEGY loomed in the same race before peaking on his run and should have improved since. He has never been a first-up horse but typically improves sharply second-up (won two from three) and reunites with Brad Parnham who knows him back to front for having been aboard him in all five of his wins.
(1) SENTIMENTAL HERO is first-up, no trial at 1,600m with 60kg but must still be respected. His first campaign for Peter Fernie last year was remarkable and he has a top fresh record.
(7) KAPTAIN KAOS hit the line strongly to produce his best run in a long while last start.
RACE 12
(5) HANCHI has not won a race for 616 days but also had more than 12 months off the scene in that time. He did not handle the soft-7 track last start but his efforts both two and three starts back when hitting the line powerfully without much luck were good enough to win this. Like the fact he gets back to Belmont (where two of his three career wins have come) and Chris Parnham sticks in a smaller field.
(3) MADHI GIRL is flying and will be hard to beat again. She is gunning for a winning hat-trick and drops 1kg off the seven-day back up.
(8) DEFERRED resumes off the back of a slashing trial but 1,000m looks short of his best trip.
(2) CUT THE TALK has not raced for almost 20 months but has a great record and should get the run of the race.
RACE 14
(3) IMMORTAL BLISS trialled up nicely then could not have been more impressive at his WA debut. He only defeated a moderate C3 field but they went hard and his change up speed and late sectionals were still that of a horse who has the progressiveness to go on with it. There is a stack of speed engaged here, so William Pike should be able to sit back and launch late.
(8) SNOW GOD drops back to 1,000m after hitting the front over 1,200m last start and getting gunned down in the final strides. Both of his starts back this prep have been good and he is a big danger.
(4) NONESOSPICY has won three of five (including three of three over 1,000m) and looks the likely leader but she has had four trials over the past 12 weeks and did not set the world on fire in any of them.
(1) MILITARY POWER faces much tougher opposition than his last-start win but has been in the money at six of his nine starts at this track and distance.
RACE 16
(3) ON PATROL can be tricky to catch with his negative racing pattern but he is going as well as ever. Won first-up in this grade, finished powerfully to be beaten a head second-up and was not suited making his run down the middle of the track last start when closer to the fence was the place to be, but he was a good run in review.
(5) DOCTOR JAY jumped favourite first-up but was unsuited on the wrong part of the track. He is a lightly-raced 5YO with ability who can bounce back.
(14) FORTUNE'S LUCK is a consistent mare in and around this grade. She has stuck on well at her last two starts, now gets Pike and can roll forward.
(8) KIRALUI will need luck from the gate but she was luckless first-up and hit the line better than anything last time.
RACE 18
(11) MR TALENTINO was heavily backed on Aug 9 and got the job done. He is one from one off a seven-day back up, drops 1kg and can roll forward from his sticky alley in a race where a lot of his main dangers will likely be back in the field. Could be hard to catch in the straight.
(3) COSMIC CHAOS is ready to win. He has been building into his campaign nicely and just needs some luck from a tricky draw to find a nice spot in running.
(7) TRUE PLAYER backs up off seven days and gets blinkers on for the first time which is always an important gear change with Team Williams.
(6) NOBLE CONNECTION is on trial at the staying distance but has impressed at all three starts in easier grade this prep and gives the impression he will get the trip.
RACE 19
(3) EXCELTRAIN is a model of consistency and was a bit stiff not to finish closer to Little Silver last start after he was momentarily held up behind the leader on straightening. He profiles well at the Belmont 1,400m circuit, gets a drier track which he will appreciate, should lead this time around and Clint Johnson-Porter jumps aboard. Looks a nice race for him.
(4) LITTLE SILVER is flying and meets Exceltrain 1kg better off for beating him last start. Drawn awkwardly but has the tactical speed to slide across to park in the breeze and can win again.
(2) COLD SHIZZLE does his best work at Belmont and caught the eye late last start. He should be ready at his third run back.
(10) STREET BAND is yet to tick the 1,400m box but was very good first-up. No clear run last start.
RACE 20
(4) GAGE ROADS may have been advantaged by parking up outside the leader on an on-speed day in his last-start win but he may land in the same spot again here. He is super consistent across all tracks and conditions and will look the winner again at some stage.
(1) AUTUMN REBEL made a terrific return off a lengthy layoff when second to the in-form Little Silver. Extra 200m suits, will get a lovely run parked off the speed.
(2) HOSTILE TALK backs up off seven days after hitting the line nicely over 1,300m last week and now gets Pike but also rises 300m to a mile for the first time.
(7) BECALOTTI steps up 400m at her second run back but trialled well and ran an absolute bolter first-up at odds.