Vietnam ends two-child policy to tackle falling birthrate
A state-run media report said the National Assembly had passed the amendments on Tuesday. The old ordinance limited families to no more than two children.
Vietnam's population is still on the rise, but birth rates are declining in Ho Chi Minh City and other urban areas. Experts project the working population will peak around 2040. Policymakers are concerned an ageing society will put future economic growth at risk.
A similar decline in birth rates is happening in other parts of Southeast Asia. Social empowerment of women is one reason that's often cited, along with the rising cost of raising children as economies develop.
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Japan Times
a day ago
- Japan Times
Winning warship bid gives Japan confidence boost as Tokyo eyes more exports
Japan's successful offer of state-of-the-art warships to Australia is seen as a "model" case for the future export of entire military systems, senior defense officials say, as Tokyo eyes Southeast Asian nations as possible destinations. Australia's decision to select a Japanese warship for its next frigate class has been 'well received across Japanese industry, so we feel this will have positive ramifications and generate momentum as local companies look at the Mogami case as a model," a Defense Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Japan Times. Canberra plans to buy 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates, choosing Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) over Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems as its preferred partner to replace the Australian Navy's aging Anzac-class warships in what is set to be Tokyo's largest-ever defense contract. The decision marked a breakthrough for Japan's defense industry and helped erase memories of Tokyo's failed submarine bid to Australia in 2016. 'We hope this success will give confidence to the broader Japanese industry to explore future transfer opportunities,' the official added, as domestic companies look to overcome their comparative inexperience in delivering on large-capability contracts for customers other than the Self-Defense Forces. This confidence boost could prove critical as Tokyo aims to step up defense-industrial cooperation with allies and key partners, including Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam. 'Our way of thinking is the same when we look at Australia or at regional partner nations in Southeast Asia,' the official said. 'Our ultimate goal is to create a desirable security environment in this region, and we see equipment transfers as important tools in this endeavor. 'Sharing the same type of assets means we can rely on each other and work more closely together,' the official added. Manila has expressed interest in acquiring used Maritime Self-Defense Force Abukuma-class destroyer escorts in what would be another export of a major naval platform as Japan aims to boost the defense capabilities of like-minded neighbors. Tokyo is set to decommission the first of six Abukuma vessels in 2027. Meanwhile, Jakarta, which has also expressed interest in the upgraded Mogami, is also known to be considering acquiring decommissioned Soryu-class submarines. It is still unclear, however, how Japan will be able to export entire secondhand military platforms under its strict arms export regulations, formally known as the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, or if further revision to the regulations would be required. The Maritime Self-Defense Force's Abukuma-class destroyer escort Chikuma (front) sails with the Australian Navy's Hobart-class guided-missile destroyer Brisbane during joint exercises in the Pacific Ocean in November 2023. | U.S. NAVY The transfer of the upgraded Mogami is only possible under the current guidelines because it fits into the category of 'joint developments and production,' which is normally reserved for new equipment. This still requires National Security Council approval and is determined on a case-by-case basis. Australia's selection of MHI, however, doesn't mean the process is over. 'The decision means we can now concentrate on securing the contract rather than on the competition itself,' the Japanese official said. Much remains to be discussed, officials said, including technology transfers, integrated supply chains, maintenance arrangements and the overall level of Australian participation. 'The Mogami's selection was a wonderful announcement, but there is still a challenging way ahead to get to the contract,' the official added. Canberra aims to enter into binding and commercial contracts with MHI and the Japanese government early next year. The decadelong, 10 billion Australian dollar ($6.48 billion) frigate plan, known as Project Sea 3000, requires the first warship to be delivered by 2029 and become operational the following year. The three initial vessels are to be constructed in Japan, with manufacturing of the remaining ships set to transition to the Henderson area of Perth, where they will be built by Australian company Austal. The first three are likely to be made at MHI's Nagasaki shipyard alongside those already on order for the MSDF. Should additional capacity be required, the Japanese officials said MHI has already transferred Mogami manufacturing technologies to other shipyards, including in Yokohama and Tamano, Okayama Prefecture. Japan's successful bid not only highlights how far its domestic industry has come over the past decade, but also how critical close cooperation with the government has become for companies to succeed on the international defense market. The Mogami bid marked the first time that Japan launched a joint public-private promotion committee exclusively to support a defense export project — an approach that officials say might be considered for similar endeavors in the future. But why did Tokyo step up its involvement? While shaping the regional security environment and deepening security relations are among the reasons why governments export military equipment, such transfers play another key role: they help maintain a sovereign and innovative defense industry, something that Japan has recognized as a matter of national security. The argument is that in the event of a conflict, Japan's defense-industrial capacity must be able to meet a rapid increase in demand, something that can only be done with a robust defense-industrial base. Should Japan lose this capacity, or its ability to develop cutting-edge tech, it could eventually become too dependent on foreign governments and defense industries. Australia's pick of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries as as its preferred partner to replace its navy's aging Anzac-class warships highlights how far Japan's defense industry has come over the past decade, | REUTERS While the upgraded Mogami was deemed the better fit for the Australian Navy based on its capabilities, it's almost certain that elements such as Tokyo and Canberra's growing geostrategic alignment, the need for greater interoperability with regional allies and partners as well as plans to further deepen defense-industrial cooperation also weighed heavily in the decision-making. While not directly related to the warship, these aspects are nonetheless significant in terms of collective defense posturing and strategic messaging, signaling to rivals such as China and North Korea that Tokyo and Canberra will be working together for the foreseeable future. But the government's role was also important in another way, with experts saying that the most persuasive factor in Tokyo's bid was its promises that the first three frigates will be delivered on time. This commitment only became possible after the Japanese government explicitly allowed the joint development and production of the frigates, allaying concerns about restrictions under its arms export controls. 'Compared to 2016, this time around the government and MHI were much more proactive,' said James Schoff, a Japan defense expert at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA. 'They understood what was important to the client, in terms of delivery schedule, ship performance, life cycle costs, etc., and they marketed themselves more successfully," he said. Japanese officials also said there was more clarity from an early stage about the Mogami's exportability, something that wasn't the case in 2016, when Japan pitched its Soryu subs to Australia. 'The submarine competition took place not long after the government's 2014 revision of Japan's three defense transfer principles,' a second Japanese official said. 'Back then, our companies weren't really sure about what they were allowed to transfer abroad, and I believe this lack of confidence somehow contributed to us losing that bid.' Once the Mogami contract is signed, the export of these advanced warships to Australia will mark just Japan's second transfer of a complete defense system since 2014, following the sale of several air-surveillance radars to the Philippines in 2020. 'Many companies in Japan are therefore watching this case very closely, not only those directly involved with Mogami frigates, but also those outside the project,' the first Japanese official said. These firms, the official added, want to understand the unprecedented whole-of-government approach Tokyo has taken and how its involvement with industry will continue going forward.
The Diplomat
3 days ago
- The Diplomat
A Vietnamese Dissident Marks One Year of Unjust Imprisonment
This year, the U.S. marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Vietnam. It should not forget the scores of dissidents who have been deprived of their freedom. Vietnamese political activist Nguyen Chi Tuyen, aka Anh Chi, as seen in a photograph that was posted to his Facebook page on December 2, 2022. Nguyen Chi Tuyen just wanted to raise his voice. Like a citizen. Like a patriot. In doing so, he became one of Vietnam's most prominent activists. He spent years peacefully protesting China's maritime encroachment on Vietnam. After a Taiwanese factory spilled toxic waste into Vietnam's rivers, he organized people to livestream themselves banging pans together in their kitchens to demand transparency from the regime. He met with European Union delegates to tell them about unjustly detained dissidents and the regime's repression of indigenous rights, and posted videos suggesting ways that Vietnam could solve its corruption problem. His efforts have earned him five years in prison. A year ago today, on August 15, 2024, after a five-hour trial behind closed doors, Tuyen – known to many by his pen-name Anh Chi – was convicted of 'anti-state propaganda' and sentenced to half a decade behind bars. This year marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and Vietnam. Vietnam is crucial to the balance of power between democracies like the European Union and dictatorships like China. Democracies rely on Hanoi to counter Beijing's regional influence, even as China remains one of Vietnam's most important trade partners. While Vietnam has successfully balanced its relations with these countries, its harsh response to Tuyen's pro-democracy stance provides compelling insights into its geopolitical strategy – and a potent reason for democracies to advocate for Tuyen's release. Arrests of dissidents are nothing new in Vietnam. Vietnam is a one-party authoritarian regime that has been ruled by the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. Luong Cuong is its president (though Tuyen suffered repression mostly under To Lam, who served briefly as president prior to being appointed the CPV general secretary). The CPV rules with an iron fist. It has banned all opposition parties, arresting activists who criticize it and imprisoning members of minority groups who peacefully campaign for the right to practice their religion. Since 2011, Tuyen has protested against Vietnam's regime, mainly through YouTube videos and community organizing. In a country that suppresses all independent media, Tuyen amassed 100,000 followers on his YouTube account, Anh Chí Râu Đen, and introduced his viewers to core political issues in Vietnam. He also helped found the No-U movement, a soccer club that dissented against China's incursion into Vietnam-claimed regions of the South China Sea. He organized a campaign to support environmental protection after the Formosa water pollution crisis, helped build schools in rural areas, and assisted victims of natural disasters. He also spoke out against the regime's harsh treatment of pro-democracy activists. In an open letter on behalf of imprisoned Vietnamese dissidents, Tuyen wrote, 'The only thing we did was to act in accordance with our conscience, speak up our thoughts, our desire, our longing.' Vietnam has rewarded Tuyen's efforts with surveillance and police violence. In 2015, plainclothes police officers attacked him in the streets of Hanoi, injuring him so severely that he needed stitches on his face. In 2017, while he was driving his son home from school, more officers beat Tuyen unconscious. One February morning in 2024, when Tuyen was in poor health, three surveillance agents stationed themselves outside his home. They told his wife they just wanted to talk to him. When she opened the door, several plainclothes officers rushed inside, read a search-and-arrest warrant that they refused to show, and arrested Tuyen. To justify their acts, the police cited two videos he had posted on his YouTube channel. One video was about a $200 million donation made by the chairwoman of VietJet Air, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, to Oxford University in the United Kingdom. The second video suggested that creating multiple political parties could help solve the problem of corruption in Vietnam. After five months languishing in pre-trial detention without being allowed to contact his lawyers and family, Tuyen was brought to the Hanoi People's Court last August. Although his trial was supposed to be open to the public, only Tuyen's wife and lawyers were permitted to attend. The regime accused him of violating Article 117 of the Vietnamese Penal Code, a vague law that outlaws spreading and that Vietnam has routinely weaponized against activists. Somehow, Tuyen's videos calling for democratic reform constituted such propaganda. At the end of his five-hour trial, the judge sentenced Tuyen to five years in prison without probation. Undoubtedly, the most critical part of this story is Tuyen's ongoing suffering and that of his wife and two children. While Tuyen was held incommunicado, his family didn't know his condition. They were allowed to send him supplies two times a month, but they never learned if he received them. They also did not know if he was being treated well or if he was being tortured. Now, they live without him. But Tuyen's plight also provides insights into Vietnam's geopolitical strategy. Vietnam aims to balance its relations with countries like the U.S. and the EU with its ties to countries like China. For the U.S., Vietnam plays a vital role in countering China's regional influence, while the EU sees Vietnam as a key diplomatic partner. Vietnam has entered into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the U.S. It's poised to enter into one with the EU as well. Meanwhile, Vietnam sees China as a valuable trade partner. China is Vietnam's largest import market and second-largest export destination. In addition to forming a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China in 2008, Vietnam has supported China's transnational repression schemes, facilitating China's arrest and repatriation of at least two dissidents. Both the U.S. and the EU have regarded human rights as foundational to their existing diplomatic partnerships with Vietnam. But as Tuyen's case demonstrates, Vietnam may say it will safeguard human rights. Still, it will unerringly persist in cracking down on dissent, imprisoning people like Tuyen, who criticize Chinese incursion and advocate for positive societal reform. Vietnam is a dictatorship at its core, more akin to China than to the U.S. and the EU. While diplomatic relations are founded on mutual respect among partner nations for each other's sovereignty and political systems, true mutual respect can only be achieved with openness and dialogue. It is vital to understand that Vietnam will only take action to promote human rights if its diplomatic partners hold it to account. This is exactly what the U.S. and the EU must do. The EU issued one statement calling for Tuyen's release when he was first sentenced to prison, which is a promising start. While the U.S. has made statements about Vietnam's arbitrary detention of prisoners in general, it hasn't specifically called for Tuyen's release. We can't know what is happening behind closed doors, but to truly hold Vietnam to account, democracies must consistently call for his release. Without an ongoing dialogue, these countries' relations with Vietnam will remain superficial and lack the foundation of trust necessary to ensure genuine strategic security in the region. Amid all the geopolitics, it's essential to keep in mind the human lives that continue to be harmed by this reticence. Tuyen, whose only crime was suggesting ways for Vietnam to reduce corruption, remains in prison. Meanwhile, his wife and two children are marking one year of his unjustifiable absence from their lives. One year is long enough. Just as Tuyen once spoke up for imprisoned activists in his open letter, it is time for democracies to speak up and call for his release. Doing so would promote meaningful dialogue with Vietnam, advance strategic security and, most importantly, enable an innocent man to return home to his family and loved ones.
Japan Times
4 days ago
- Japan Times
Thailand's Delta sees AI boom boosting sales for coming years
Delta Electronics (Thailand), the country's most valuable publicly traded company, is predicting "double-digit' sales growth to continue for at least the next couple of years on rising demand for AI-related tech, Chief Executive Officer Victor Cheng said. The maker of components for data centers and electric vehicles is boosting investment to fuel its expansion, Cheng said in an interview. The company also says it plans to raise its sales forecast for the second half of this year, without disclosing what its estimate is. AI-related products, such as networking and data-center power equipment, will account for half of Delta Thailand's sales by the end of the year, up from 42% in the latest quarter, the company forecasts. It is among Southeast Asian suppliers benefiting as customers including Nvidia expand in the region and beyond to tap rising demand for services such as generative artificial intelligence. "All the applications involving AI will continue to grow,' Cheng said. "This business is not slowing down.' Among challenges is a U.S. tariff of 19% on Thai exports, though Cheng said he isn't too worried as the company can "pretty much pass on all the tariffs to customers.' The U.S. accounts for as much as 35% of Delta Thailand's sales, he said. Second-half performance will benefit from a refund of some of the tariffs Delta Thailand had to pay upfront to customers earlier in the year, the company says. U.S. President Donald Trump has recently set Thailand's tariff rate at 19% after previously threatening 36%. With Nvidia and its peers releasing new AI hardware at a rapid clip, Delta Thailand and its competitors are under pressure to deliver everything from power supply to thermal heating solutions to fit the advanced computing equipment. Data center capacity in the Asia-Pacific region will more than double by 2030, requiring investment of more than $800 billion, according to Moody's. "Momentum is strong,' Cheng said. "Data-center segment is the one that's propping up our both top lines and bottom lines.' Shares of the company have more than doubled from an April low, bringing its market capitalization to about $60 billion and putting it far ahead of local peers. Analysts cite it as one of just a few Thai companies well-positioned to benefit from the data center boom. In November, the local stock exchange introduced trading curbs on the company's shares after its surging price triggered a surveillance mechanism. "I continue to say that I don't like the stock price to be too high,' Cheng said. "If it's so high I don't know how well it will be sustained and somebody is going to get hurt.' The company is expanding its research and development operations in Thailand by hiring more designers and entering new areas such as thermal simulation engineering. It has recruited more than 100 engineers this year, bringing the total to about 400 in the country. Overall, it has about 20,000 employees in Thailand, its biggest global base. Its two new production facilities in the Wellgrow industrial estate near Bangkok will come online in the fourth quarter. The additional capacity will help it meet demand for power thermal solutions and other components. "In the next few years, AI and digitization being smarter and faster will support our growth,' Cheng said. "We just want to maintain this double-digit growth' and "discipline in our profit margin management.'
