India eyes ‘geopolitical grand slam' with major Western trade pacts, says Vogel Group partner
Samir Kapadia, Managing Partner at Vogel Group, discusses India's diplomatic push for a "geopolitical grand slam", securing key trade deals with the U.S., U.K., and the EU despite rising tensions with Pakistan. He emphasizes India's efforts to balance tactical ties with China while pursuing transformational partnerships with Western nations.
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CNBC
4 hours ago
- CNBC
Why a pacifist Japan seems to be doubling down on arms exports
Japan, renowned for its pacifist constitution, is now setting its sights on the global arms exports market. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani earlier this month told Nikkei that he wanted to promote Japan's defense exports, signaling a clear shift in the country's arms policy, which has so far been largely restricted to catering to the Japan Self-Defense Forces, or JSDF. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also signaled sharper focus on the defense sector and became the first sitting prime minister to attend DSEI Japan, the country's largest defense exhibition. While the shift in stance comes at a time when global defense spending has been on the rise, Japan's motivations are linked more to its security concerns than profiting from the surge in global arms demand, experts told CNBC. The biggest reason behind this shift is to deepen ties and increase interoperability of Japanese forces with allies and partners, said Rintaro Inoue, research associate at the Institute of Geoeconomics, a Tokyo-based think tank. By exporting its arms abroad, a country is able to improve interoperability with the purchasing parties by standardizing maintenance processes for hardware and creating joint training opportunities. "This rationale has been the main pillar after Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe created the concept of 'proactive contribution to peace' in 2013 which aims to deepen cooperation with other Western countries in this area, and especially in security fields," he said. When the late Abe was in office, he led efforts to revise the interpretation of Article 9 of Japan's constitution to allow the JSDF to more actively contribute to international peacekeeping efforts and defend allies. Japan also wants to develop its defense industrial base, which had been in "very poor conditions" before the country moved to increase its defense budget in 2022, Inoue said. Exports will allow it to achieve the economies of scale needed to make domestic production more viable. Instead of investing in Japan's domestic defense base, the country has largely purchased weapons from the U.S., such as the F-35 fighter jets and SPY-7 radar systems. "This created a severe situation among the defense industry based in Japan, and several companies have left the industry, especially in the supply chain," Inoue said. In 2023, more than 100 companies were reported to have left the defense industry in the past 20 years. Naoko Aoki, political scientist at U.S.-based policy think tank RAND, said that Japanese defense firms have traditionally operated with limited domestic demand from the JSDF. Being able to export defense items means that companies would have a bigger customer base, helping them develop production capacities, lower costs and have more flexibility. "Even if the JSDF needed more of, for example munitions, these companies would not be eager to invest in new facilities to produce more of them, if they think that is a one-time request. If there were more stable demand at a higher level, however, they can justify the investment," Aoki said. As of 2024, Japan's arms exports stood at 21 million TIV — just 0.1% of global arms exports — according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The TIV or trend-indicator value is a measure of the volume of international transfers of major conventional weapons. In comparison, neighboring South Korea exported 936 million TIV in 2024, with 3.3% of global arms exports, while TIV for China, the largest Asian arms exporter from 2020-2024 stood at 1.13 billion, accounting for 3.9% of global shipments. Defense is attractive as a growth sector, according to veteran investor David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy. "Demand will exceed supply for a decade,he said. So, building domestic capacity is of paramount importance. Roche said that if nations such as Japan stay dependent on the U.S., the Trump administration's more transactional approach will oblige them to pay for much more of their own defense, or defense equipment supplied by the pointed to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's speech during the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, earlier this month: "We ask — and indeed, we insist — that our allies and partners do their part on defense ... NATO members are pledging to spend 5% of their GDP on defense, even Germany." "So it doesn't make sense for countries in Europe to do that while key allies in Asia spend less on defense in the face of an even more formidable threat, not to mention North Korea," Hegseth added. "If they distrust the U.S. to honor its treaty engagements, then individual nations must ensure their own security and spend a lot of money doing so," Roche said. Japan in 1967 adopted "Three Principles on Arms Exports" that restricted arms exports, and later expanded those principles to a practically impose an across-the-board ban on arms exports, except for transfers of military technologies to the U.S. The country relaxed this stance under Abe, with former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida easing the curbs further in 2023. The most recent changes allow defense equipment manufactured in Japan under license from foreign defense firms, including finished products, to be exported to the licensing country and from there to third countries. For example, Japan agreed in late 2023 to manufacture — under license — and export Patriot interceptor missiles to the U.S., whose stockpiles were depleted after supplying these missiles to Ukraine. Neighbor South Korea has seen increasing global interest in its arms industry and is striving to become a major global arms supplier. Will Japan be able to compete? Experts says that Japan has the knowledge, skills and technology to be a major arms supplier, but IOG's Inoue warns that Japan may face manufacturing issues due to its falling population and growing proportion of seniors. "I think it's very difficult for Japan to once again focus into manufacturing jobs," he said. RAND's Aoki pointed to still-strict regulations. "Japan has the technical capacity to do many things," but as export regulations remain severe, it will use exports mainly as a tool to strengthen its defense industrial base and defense relations with like-minded countries, particularly the U.S.
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
SquaredFinancial turns 20: A milestone of trust, growth, and looking ahead
LUXEMBOURG, June 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- SquaredFinancial proudly celebrates 20 years in the fintech and trading industry, a milestone shaped by steady growth, lasting relationships, and a clear commitment to putting clients first. Founded in 2005 by entrepreneur Philippe Ghanem, SquaredFinancial began with a simple mission: to make trading more accessible, transparent, and human. Two decades on, the company has become a trusted platform for individual investors and a key technology and liquidity partner for brokers across the industry. "We've always believed in building for the long term," said Philippe Ghanem, Founder and CEO. "This milestone is not about looking back. It's about momentum. The brokerage industry is shifting fast, and we're leaning into that change with clarity, confidence, and a long-term vision shaped by experience." Over the years, SquaredFinancial has grown into a regulated firm with a global client base and a reputation for delivering smart, scalable infrastructure. The company has launched its proprietary trading app, introduced AI-backed tools designed to support informed decision, and developed innovative financial products like fixed-time deposits*, all while supporting brokers with deep liquidity and seamless technology integration. What sets SquaredFinancial apart is its people and its purpose, a culture rooted in performance, trust, and long-term partnership. "We've never chased hype. We've focused on building something real, something people can rely on," Ghanem added. "We're here for the professionals who demand performance. We're here for the beginners who want to learn. And we're here to stay." As SquaredFinancial enters its third decade, it continues to invest in next-generation technology, global partnerships, and tools that empower both investors and financial institutions. The goal remains clear: to simplify the trading experience, support its partners, and help clients grow with confidence. *This product is not offered to European residents. About SquaredFinancial Founded in 2005, SquaredFinancial is a fintech and multi-asset trading firm providing regulated, technology-driven investment solutions. The company serves a global client base, offering intuitive platforms for investors and professional-grade liquidity and technology services for brokers. With a focus on innovation, transparency, and long-term relationships, SquaredFinancial is built to support the future of finance. SOURCE SquaredFinancial
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bulgaria Poised to Join the Euro: An Interview with Scope Ratings' Dennis Shen
The European Commission and the European Central Bank have announced that Bulgaria meets the euro convergence criteria. Is Bulgaria now expected to adopt the euro? January 2026 appears to be the likely accession date. The process has been many years in the making, but Bulgaria has made meaningful progress. Bulgaria is on track today to join the euro but encountered delays in recent years. Were they warranted? If Bulgaria had been admitted sooner into the euro area's waiting room – the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) – the country may have finalised its euro entry sooner. But before Bulgaria's entry into the ERM II in 2020, there were political reservations within the euro area about the eastward expansion of the bloc. Since 2020, though, the further delays since entering ERM II have been warranted. The global cost-of-living crisis contributed to high inflation leading to a temporary divergence from the price-stability criterion until very recently. This contrasts with Croatia, which entered ERM II at the same time as Bulgaria but became a euro area member in January 2023. Political instability in the recent years has created economic uncertainties and delays to reforms. There have been seven general elections just since 2021, for example, and divisions remain between political parties around the subject of the euro. But divergence from the price-stability criterion alone may have ruled out euro adoption before January 2026. Is recent EU support for Bulgaria's euro entry the result of changing geopolitics and a push to deepen integration or just a reflection of the country's success in meeting the quantitative criteria? Accession may have been supported by the current geopolitics. Incentives for the EU to deepen and broaden the union have grown since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and likely grew further after the US presidential elections. Traditional post-war alliances have fractured, resulting in a more divided and less predictable world. That may have resulted in greater goodwill from Brussels on subjects strengthening the union. The fault lines in Bulgaria between pro-European forces calling for a deepening of the union, and those favouring rapprochement with Russia, are playing out daily in the nation. The EU recognises that any further delay in accession might place euro entry in fundamental doubt given anti-euro movements inside Bulgaria. But the core reason as to why Bulgaria is due to adopt the euro is because the country has undertaken the necessary reforms and now meets the criteria. How will euro adoption affect the Bulgarian economy? Joining the single currency should support the stability of Bulgaria's highly euro-ised economy, enhance monetary policy flexibility, and improve borrowing conditions. Euro adoption will anchor trend growth, which Scope Ratings (Scope) has estimated around 2.75% a year, and may accelerate convergence towards average European Union living standards. Opinion polls suggest around a half of Bulgarians oppose euro adoption. Could that be a problem? Bulgarians are not the first people of a country preparing to adopt the euro who have proven sceptical about the benefits ahead of accession. But support for the euro tends to rise after the adoption of the single currency as the worst fears of many turn out to be unfounded. Inflation is a case in point. Rather than raising inflation as some Bulgarians fear, entering the euro should reduce inflation over time as integration within the euro bloc trims transaction costs. Borrowing costs as a member state of the euro area should be lower than they would be if Bulgaria stays outside. Should the EU be concerned that Bulgarian governments might ease budgetary discipline and endanger the stability of the currency union after euro entrance? Bulgaria has a record of fiscal discipline, recording modest budget deficits and low public debt. The recent years of more elevated budget deficits of around 3% of GDP – the Maastricht Treaty threshold – and rising public debt have been partly the result of heightened political instability, including recurring general elections and the associated populist policy responses. I believe we are unlikely to see any overt slippage of budgetary discipline after euro admission. Croatia is a good example of a nation keeping fiscal discipline after it joined the euro. Euro-area member states need to meet specific fiscal rules. They must submit annual draft budgets for European Commission evaluation under the European Semester, a process that non-euro EU member states do not need to do. The EU fiscal framework, including the Stability and Growth Pact and Excessive Deficit Procedure, remains firmly in place. As the political instability associated with divisions around euro adoption is partly responsible for the recent budgetary slippage, settling the question of the euro for a generation may alleviate some of the political fault lines and curtail certain government spending risks. See also from Scope on Bulgaria's euro accession. For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macro Economic Council and Lead Global Economist of Scope Group. The rating agency's Macroeconomic Council brings together the company's credit opinions from multiple issuer classes: sovereign and public sector, financial institutions, corporates, structured finance and project finance. Brian Marly, senior analyst of sovereign ratings at Scope and lead sovereign analyst for Bulgaria, contributed to writing this Q&A. 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