NY Cocoa Erases Early Gains on Signs of Weak Chocolate Demand
Cocoa prices today are mixed. NY cocoa gave up an early advance today and turned lower, while London cocoa fell from its best levels due to concerns about cocoa demand. Chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG today lowered its margin guidance for the year due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales.
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Cocoa Prices Rally as the Pace of Ivory Coast Cocoa Exports Slows
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Cocoa prices today initially moved higher on carryover support from Monday, when coffee found support from a slower pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.74 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to July 20, up +6.1% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December.
An excessive short position by commodity funds may add fuel to a short-covering rally. Last Friday, ICE Futures Europe reported that funds boosted their net-short London cocoa positions by 1,010 to 6,361 short positions the week ended July 15, the most in more than two years.
Cocoa prices sold off last week, with NY cocoa sinking to an 8-month nearest-futures low last Thursday and London cocoa slumping to a 17-month nearest-futures low. Weakness in global cocoa demand has hammered prices. The European Cocoa Association reported last Thursday that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell by -7.2% y/y to 331,762 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -5% y/y. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings fell -16.3% y/y to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for a Q2 in 8 years. North American Q2 cocoa grindings fell -2.8% y/y to 101,865 MT, which was a smaller decline than the declines seen in Asia and Europe.
Demand concerns are weighing on cocoa prices after chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance earlier this month for a second time in three months, citing persistently high cocoa prices. The company projects a decline in full-year sales volume and said there was a -9.5% drop in its March-May sales volume, the largest quarterly drop in a decade.
In a bearish factor, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports climbed to a 10-month high of 2,363,861 bags on June 18 and were just below that high at 2,351,269 bags as of Monday.
Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8.3% y/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024/25. Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer.
Cocoa prices have support from quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.
On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT. ICCO said the 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio fell to a 46-year low of 27.0%. Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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