Indiana Pacers X-factor that will determine 2025 NBA Finals vs. Thunder

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Most view the Indiana Pacers as the heavy underdog heading into their 2025 NBA Finals clash against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and perhaps for good reason. The Thunder have scarcely struggled in this year's playoffs; they may have been pushed to the brink by the Denver Nuggets, but the Nuggets have perhaps the most difficult player to guard in the entire league in Nikola Jokic, and they play such an unorthodox, post-driven offense that only a Jokic-led team can excel with.
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Facing perimeter-based stars has not been a problem for the Thunder at all; they made light work of both the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves (teams led by Ja Morant and Anthony Edwards) — both teams that rely on dribble penetration to create easy looks either at the basket or from beyond the arc. The Pacers are perhaps more versatile offensively, but even then, they rely so much on Tyrese Haliburton's ability to create off the pick-and-roll that there is a legitimate possibility that they play into the hands of OKC's elite defense.
Nonetheless, the Pacers have relied on their entire roster it seems throughout this entire playoff run, and it's not like head coach Rick Carlisle to stop looking at his bench for someone who can turn the tide of the game in their favor. With that said, here are three players that could end up being game-changers for the Pacers as they face long odds in their quest to defeat OKC in this year's Finals.
Bennedict Mathurin could be due for a huge series
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Bennedict Mathurin can score; if there's anything he does at a high level on the court, it's find a way to get the ball to go through the hoop. Nonetheless, Mathurin has largely taken a backseat through the first three rounds of this year's playoffs. The Pacers are smart to limit Mathurin's minutes; he has mostly functioned as an instigator and not much more for his team, and the numbers tell the story of just how much the team has struggled whenever he's on the court.
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According to PBP Stats, the Pacers are nearly 17 points better whenever Mathurin is on the bench, and the eye test does not disprove this. Every time Mathurin is on the court, it seems like the team has so many breakdowns on defense all while going nowhere on offense. Is it Mathurin's fault that he's largely tasked to carry units filled with fellow bench players, which then leads to bad on-off numbers? Perhaps not.
But it is not that hard to see why the Pacers opted to mothball Mathurin for the most part, especially during the Eastern Conference Finals. He was a -37 during the entirety of the series against the New York Knicks and was a -12 in eight minutes during their closeout win in Game 6. He doesn't provide the same tenacious defense that Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard do, while his ability to get to the foul line becomes less of an asset in the playoffs where the officials referee the game more tightly.
With all of that said, it seems like giving Mathurin many minutes against the Thunder would be a recipe for disaster. His decision-making is not the best as well which could be a nightmare against OKC's turnover-forcing machine.
However, it's the chaos that Mathurin would bring that could be of value to the Pacers. His foul-drawing ability could be something to use against the Thunder's army of long-limbed defenders; when the Pacers were stuck in the mud in Game 5 against the Knicks, Mathurin ended up being a positive presence, creating offense for his team by getting to the foul line nine times.
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His free-throw drawing percentage is incredible and could be something the Pacers look towards using especially given how smothering OKC's defense is. Maybe Mathurin could help exaggerate some contact and generate easy points for Indiana as a result.
Mathurin's trickiness could be something they use to put the likes of Caruso, Dort, and Wallace in some sort of foul trouble, freeing up Haliburton to do damage.
Can the Pacers get some more Thomas Bryant magic?
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Thomas Bryant was rendered largely ineffective by the Knicks to start the ECF. In fact, he was a DNP in Games 3 and 4 of the series, with Carlisle and the Pacers opting to roll with Tony Bradley instead to combat the pressure on the glass that Mitchell Robinson was putting.
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However, Bradley ended up suffering an injury, pressing Bryant into action once more. And he was brilliant in Game 6, hitting multiple threes and being an energy guy whom the Pacers relied on to give them a much-needed jolt off the bench.
It's not quite clear if Bryant will get the same burn he did during the Knicks series. Perhaps he can be of some value to the Pacers whenever Isaiah Hartenstein is on the floor, with Bryant being the counter Indiana can rely on against someone who attacks the offensive glass relentlessly.
The Thunder, however, can simply rely on a bit of a small-ball unit, with Caruso on the court instead of Hartenstein, putting Chet Holmgren at the five. This would make it impossible for Bryant to see the floor. But if Bryant can limit Hartenstein's effectiveness to the point where OKC is reluctant to throw him out there, then it at least removes one problem from the Pacers' mind — the rebounding game.
Obi Toppin has to hit shots for Pacers' small-ball unit to thrive
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During the Knicks series, the Pacers had to bench Myles Turner in favor of Obi Toppin whenever the Knicks went to pacier lineups. Toppin is faster and more agile, allowing him to be of more utility when switching against quicker guards.
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Toppin, however, is a worse offensive player than Turner, athleticism gap notwithstanding. Turner's three-ball is much more consistent; Toppin is currently shooting 28.6 percent from three in this year's playoffs and went just 3-15 from deep against the Knicks. When the Pacers have to go small, Toppin will have to hit his shots for Indiana to be able to deploy their lineup that covers the most ground against a team that will beat them into submission.
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