Tunisia:"Future inflation trajectory remains subject to upward risks"

Zawya

07-04-2025

Tunis: Tunisia's future inflation trajectory remains subject to upward risks, with rates fluctuating between 5% and 6%, despite recent success in curbing inflation over the past few months, said economic advisor and former minister Mohsen Hassan.
In an interview with TAP news agency, Hassan highlighted economic forecasts following a slight rise in the inflation rate to 5.9% in March 2025, up from 5.7% at the end of February 2025. He also assessed Tunisia's current economic situation and growth prospects amid global protectionist policies and domestic fiscal measures.
The National Statistics Institute (INS) reported on Sunday a minor inflation increase linked to heightened consumption during Ramadan, a peak month for spending.
Prices for the "food products" category rose to 7.8% in March 2025 from 7% in February, while the "clothing and footwear" group saw inflation climb to 11.7%, up from 9.7%.
Q: How do you explain this slight inflation increase?
A: INS data shows a rise in inflation in March 2025 after consecutive declines in recent months. This uptick is primarily driven by higher food prices due to increased demand during Ramadan, a predictable trend given Tunisians' consumption habits.
Beyond immediate causes, deeper structural issues contributed to this upward trend. The recent drop in inflation was achieved through restrictive monetary policies by Tunisia's Central Bank (BCT) and government efforts to stabilise supply chains.
However, inflation's resurgence reflects persistent structural flaws, such as poor management of agricultural sectors—particularly strategic stockpiling and supply shortages—which disrupt markets and drive price hikes.
Another structural issue involves supply-demand imbalances in sectors like red meat. For example, lamb prices surged by 21.9% by the end of March 2025. Addressing these challenges requires sectoral policies to resolve distribution bottlenecks, modernise market systems, and strengthen economic oversight.
Globally, inflation has declined recently, but Tunisia remains vulnerable to imported inflation due to exchange rate pressures. Maintaining prudent monetary policies and stabilising the dinar's exchange rate are critical.
Q: What are your inflation projections for the coming months?
A: Inflation risks persist due to external factors, including geopolitical shifts and protectionist policies—such as recent U.S. tariffs—that could elevate global inflation and stagnate key markets like the EU, which Tunisia relies on.
Domestically, curbing inflation demands stabilising supply-demand mechanisms by boosting production, addressing structural inefficiencies, and fostering a more attractive business climate.
Urgent reforms in distribution networks, agricultural development, and economic controls are essential to mitigate these risks.
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