logo
Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

Asharq Al-Awsat13 hours ago
As a Wednesday deadline approaches for steeper US tariffs to hit dozens of economies ranging from the EU to India, trade negotiations with President Donald Trump's administration are coming down to the wire.
The levies taking effect July 9 were announced in April, with the White House citing a lack of "reciprocity" in trade relations. But they were swiftly halted, allowing room for talks.
Days before their reimposition, where do things stand?
EU: 'Ready' for deal
The European Union said it is "ready for a deal" with Washington, with the bloc's trade chief meeting his US counterparts Thursday.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was targeting an "agreement in principle" when it came to the July 9 cutoff, AFP reported.
With no deal, the US tariff on EU goods doubles from the "baseline" of 10 percent to 20 percent -- with Trump previously threatening a 50 percent level.
Vietnam: A pact with uncertainties
Washington and Hanoi unveiled a trade pact Wednesday with much fanfare and few details, but it allowed Vietnam to avoid Trump's initial 46 percent tariff.
Under the agreement, Vietnamese goods face a minimum 20 percent tariff while products made elsewhere face a 40 percent levy -- a clause to restrict "transshipping" by Chinese groups.
But there remain questions on how the higher levy would apply to products using foreign parts.
There is also a risk that Beijing will adopt retaliatory measures, analysts warned.
Japan: Rice, autos at stake
Despite being a close US ally and major source of foreign investment, Japan might not escape Trump's tariff hike.
Tokyo's trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa has made numerous trips to Washington through the end of June.
But Trump recently criticized what he described as Japan's reluctance to open up further to US rice and auto exports.
"I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," Trump said, adding that the country could pay a tariff of "30 percent, 35 percent, or whatever the number is that we determine."
India: A good position
Indian manufacturers and exporters want to believe they can avoid a 26 percent tariff.
Negotiations between both countries have been going well for weeks, and Trump himself suggested at the end of June that a "very big" agreement was imminent.
Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said the feedback he received "suggests positive developments." But he maintained that the situation was fluid.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stressed that agriculture and dairy products remain "very big red lines."
South Korea: Muted optimism
Seoul, which is already reeling from US tariffs on steel and autos, wants to avert a sweeping 25 percent levy on its other exports.
Cooperation in shipbuilding could be a bargaining chip, but "at this stage, both sides still haven't clearly defined what exactly they want," said new President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday.
"I can't say with confidence that we'll be able to wrap everything up by July 8," he added.
Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan in the wings
Other Asian economies including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, which faces a 49 percent tariff, wait with bated breath.
Indonesia has indicated willingness to boost energy, agriculture and merchandise imports from the United States. Bangladesh meanwhile is proposing to buy Boeing planes and step up imports of US agriculture products.
Taiwan, for whom Washington is a vital security partner, faces a 32 percent duty without a pact.
Although both sides have faced bumps along the way, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said "negotiators from both sides are working diligently" to find a path forward.
Switzerland: Hope for delay
Switzerland's government said Washington has acknowledged it was acting in good faith, and assumes its tariff level will remain at 10 percent on July 9 while negotiations continue.
But without a decision by the president as of the end of June, Switzerland did not rule out that levies could still rise to a promised 31 percent.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

US judge briefly pauses deportation of 8 migrants to South Sudan
US judge briefly pauses deportation of 8 migrants to South Sudan

Arab News

time34 minutes ago

  • Arab News

US judge briefly pauses deportation of 8 migrants to South Sudan

US District Judge Randolph Moss in Washington made the ruling at an emergency hearing on July 4The administration has detained the men for six weeks on a military base in DjiboutiWASHINGTON: A federal judge briefly halted the Trump administration on Friday from placing eight migrants on a plane destined for conflict-ridden South Sudan, to give lawyers for the men time to make their argument to a court in Massachusetts. US District Judge Randolph Moss in Washington made the ruling at an emergency hearing on July 4, when courts are otherwise closed for the Independence Day holiday. The group of migrants had filed new claims on Thursday after the Supreme Court clarified that a federal judge in Boston could no longer require US Department of Homeland Security to hold administration has detained the men for six weeks on a military base in Djibouti rather than bring back to the United order stops the US government from moving the men until 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. They were scheduled to be removed to South Sudan on a 7 p.m. case is the latest development over the legality of the Trump administration's campaign to deter immigration by shipping migrants to locations other than their countries of origin pursuant to deals with other countries.A lawyer for the US said during the hearing that court orders halting agreed-upon deportations pose a serious problem for US diplomatic relations and would make foreign countries less likely to accept transfers of migrants in the future. The group of men have been convicted of various crimes, with four of them convicted of murder, the US Department of Homeland Security has Sudan has long been dangerous even for locals. The US State Department advises citizens not to travel there due to violent crime and armed conflict. The United Nations has said the African country's political crisis could reignite a brutal civil war that ended in 2018. The eight men, who their lawyers said are from Cuba, Laos, Mexico, Burma, Sudan and Vietnam, argue their deportations to South Sudan would violate the US constitution, which prohibits 'cruel and unusual' said that he would transfer the case to Massachusetts rather than hear it himself, but remarked that if they proved their allegations about the motives of US authorities, they would likely have a valid claim.'It seems to me almost self-evident that the United States government cannot take human beings and send them to circumstances in which their physical well-being is at risk simply either to punish them or send a signal to others,' Moss said during the hearing.

Regional tensions bring Turkiye and Armenia closer
Regional tensions bring Turkiye and Armenia closer

Arab News

timean hour ago

  • Arab News

Regional tensions bring Turkiye and Armenia closer

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last month paid a historic visit to Turkiye, marking the first official trip by an Armenian leader — aside from President Serzh Sargsyan's 2009 attendance at a football match in Turkiye. Pashinyan was received by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul. The visit sought to foster the normalization process between Ankara and Yerevan that formally began in 2022 with the appointment of special envoys by both sides. The diplomatic efforts are being strongly supported at the leadership level. Erdogan and Pashinyan have met at several international summits in recent years. Pashinyan also visited Turkiye in 2023 to attend Erdogan's inauguration. As confirmed by Pashinyan, Ankara and Yerevan are now able to communicate directly, without relying on third-party intermediaries. Since assuming office in 2018, Pashinyan — who is seen as a pragmatic leader — has placed great importance on the normalization process with Turkiye. He has been trying to pursue a significant shift in Armenia's foreign policy, with economic incentives playing a critical role. He has increasingly engaged in high-level discussions and strategic partnerships with Western institutions, some of which Turkiye is also a part. For Armenia, Turkiye's membership of both the EU Customs Union and NATO is significant. However, the steps taken toward normalization in Turkish-Armenian relations, and Pashinyan's visit in particular, cannot be separated from the regional context, as the latter took place while Iran — a neighbor to both Turkiye and Armenia — was being hit by Israeli airstrikes. Like Turkiye, Armenia was deeply concerned about the escalating tensions unfolding on its doorstep. Armenia has faced heightened security and economic challenges due to this tension. Iran and Georgia are Armenia's only land gateways to international markets, given that the Turkish and Azerbaijani borders remain closed. More than 30 percent of Armenia's trade passes through Iran. Following Israel's strikes on Iran, Armenia's economy minister stated that Armenian goods were stuck at the Iranian border and warned that the country might face shortages of certain items. Pashinyan — who is seen as a pragmatic leader — has placed great importance on the normalization process with Turkiye. Dr. Sinem Cengiz Armenia has also been facing difficulties in the transit of its goods via Georgia. The situation with Tbilisi, combined with the Israel-Iran tensions, further raises the strategic importance and urgency of opening the border with Turkiye after decades of closure. Gaining access to new markets via Turkiye, which serves as an energy hub connecting Europe and Central Asia, could drastically reduce Armenia's dependence on both Iran and Russia. A senior diplomat from Armenia's Foreign Ministry recently shared Yerevan's approach with me, saying: 'Opening the border with Turkiye, a member of the EU Customs Union, is significant for Armenia's regional connectivity and further engagement with Western institutions.' The Turkish side sees opening the border as an opportunity to increase economic integration with Armenia, while also viewing the country as a key route to the so-called Middle Corridor, which would directly connect Turkiye to Central Asia. Armenia and Turkiye also share a common concern over the potential influx of people from Iran due to the tensions with Israel. In January, for the first time since its independence in 1991, Armenia assumed full control of the Agarak border checkpoint along its border with Iran. Armenian border guards replaced Russia's Border Service, which had managed the checkpoint for more than three decades. This transition reflected broader geopolitical shifts related to Armenia's approach to Russia. Historically, Yerevan's security was linked to its alliance with Moscow, whose credibility as Armenia's security guarantor has suffered a significant blow in recent years. Turkiye and Armenia also share common concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict spilling into the South Caucasus — a region in which several countries have significant stakes. Armenia, which is aligned with Iran, condemned the Israeli strikes, while Azerbaijan, a close Israeli ally, reassured Tehran it would not allow Tel Aviv to use its territory to launch operations against Iran. Turkiye and Armenia share common concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict spilling into the South Caucasus. Dr. Sinem Cengiz However, as Iranian influence wanes and Russia remains preoccupied with Ukraine, Turkiye's influence in the South Caucasus is growing. Within this context, Ankara is working behind the scenes to prevent any renewed tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Ankara is also pushing Baku to sign a peace agreement with Yerevan, as the path to Turkiye's normalization with Armenia goes through a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. It has been reported that Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Dubai this month to negotiate this long-awaited peace deal — which is to be welcomed by Ankara. Within this context, Armenia is recalibrating its defense and foreign policy approach to achieve both economic relief and a sense of security. Turkiye fits squarely into this new approach. Armenia is effectively seeking to end its landlocked status by opening its border with Turkiye, breaking away from Russia's sphere of influence by engaging in strategic partnerships with Western institutions, and preventing any negative repercussions of the Israel-Iran tensions on its security and economy. Unlike previous moves toward normalization, this time, in addition to goodwill, the escalating tensions in the region serve as a significant driving force. Like Turkiye, Armenia has to navigate the volatile environment caused by the Israel-Iran tensions with a balanced policy — a task that may become difficult if regional tensions flare again. However, their shared concerns and mutual interest in the stability of the South Caucasus could help mitigate the repercussions and pave the way toward normalization.

Pentagon has undermined Trump's goal of Ukraine peace
Pentagon has undermined Trump's goal of Ukraine peace

Arab News

time2 hours ago

  • Arab News

Pentagon has undermined Trump's goal of Ukraine peace

The US Department of Defense halted deliveries of Patriot air defense systems and other precision weapons to Ukraine last week following an internal assessment of its own stockpiles. Some of these weapons were already in Poland waiting for final transfer. The news came as a shock. While the Trump administration has taken a more nuanced approach to Ukraine and Russia than its predecessor, it had continued the flow of weapons to Kyiv as leverage in its effort to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. The timing could not be worse. Russia has launched some of the most intense aerial bombardments in the history of its invasion, including night-time barrages of more than 400 drones and ballistic missiles at a time. For Ukraine, already stretched thin on ammunition and air defense capabilities, this freeze in support threatens to make a difficult situation even more dire. The decision also undermines President Donald Trump's stated goal of ending the war. On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly emphasized the need to bring Russia and Ukraine to a negotiated settlement and made it a cornerstone of his foreign policy. But six months after he returned to the Oval Office, the war appears no closer to resolution than it was on his first day. There is no doubt the president has been sincere in his desire to bring the two sides to the table. He has called for a ceasefire and for negotiations, and Ukraine has signaled its willingness to work with the White House. The Kremlin, however, has been far more reluctant. Trump has hinted at increasing pressure on Russia to engage more seriously in diplomacy. That's precisely why the Pentagon's decision to halt aid is so surprising — and damaging. Trump appeared to have geopolitical momentum on his side. His bold military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, an action many believed he would never take, restored a sense of American credibility abroad, especially after what many saw as the Biden administration's appeasement of Tehran. Then, at the NATO summit in The Hague, Trump had a major win. He convinced European allies to commit to significantly increased defense spending, including a landmark pledge to reach 5 percent of GDP by 2035 — spending levels not seen even during the Cold War. At that same summit, a Ukrainian journalist asked Trump about the urgent need for air defense systems to protect civilians from Russian missile attacks. The president responded with genuine emotion. He said he would return to Washington and explore the possibility of sending more Patriot missile interceptors to Ukraine. Days later, however, his own Department of Defense contradicted both his words and apparent intent. There is no doubt Trump has been sincere in his desire to bring the two sides to the table. Luke Coffey This is not the first time the Pentagon has acted out of sync with the president. In February, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered a temporary halt to military assistance to Ukraine without coordinating with the White House. That pause lasted only a few days, but it rattled allies and partners across Europe and sent shockwaves through Kyiv. At the time, the White House quietly aired its frustration. Now, it appears the Pentagon may be repeating the same mistake. This latest move underscores a deeper problem: an ideological struggle within the Trump administration over US foreign policy. On one side are the isolationists who believe America should retreat from global commitments and focus exclusively on domestic concerns. They see little value in supporting Ukraine or NATO, or even maintaining a robust defense budget, since their vision of America's role in the world is minimal at best. Opposing them are the so-called prioritizers, who believe the US should focus nearly all of its strategic energy and resources on Asia, and particularly on countering the growing threat from China. In this view, America must prepare for a potential conflict over Taiwan, even if doing so means deprioritizing Europe or the Middle East. Every dollar spent and every missile deployed must serve the Indo-Pacific theater first. Both factions, for different reasons, see Ukraine as a distraction, so when aid is withheld, both are satisfied. As long as this internal tug-of-war continues, behind closed doors and in public, the president will struggle to implement a coherent and effective foreign policy. Trump may be most comfortable dealing with issues such as trade, the economy, and border security, but the reality is that global leadership also requires strategic clarity on defense and diplomacy. To succeed, he needs a team aligned with his vision — not one that undermines it. Now is the time for Trump to reassert control and redouble efforts to end Russia's war in a way that promotes lasting European stability and delivers a fair, just outcome for Ukraine. Achieving this will probably be one of the most difficult foreign policy challenges of his presidency. But he cannot meet that challenge with a divided administration. He needs a unified front — particularly from his Department of Defense. The sooner Trump reverses the Pentagon's decision to halt military aid to Ukraine, the better the prospects for peace. Time is of the essence, and any further delay could cost lives — and squander the strategic gains he has worked hard to achieve.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store