Japan's dithering wartime leaders were just as harmful as European dictators, says Eri Hotta
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CNBC
3 hours ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. inflation jump scare is not here — at least not yet
Waiting for tariff-induced price increases in the U.S. to show up can feel like watching an M. Night Shyamalan movie. July's consumer price index came in mostly benign. The headline annual rate of 2.7% was lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 2.8%. That said, the core figure was 0.1 percentage points more than expected, and the highest since February, before U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his tariffs in April. "The tariffs are in the numbers, but they're certainly not jumping out hair on fire at this point," former White House economist Jared Bernstein, who served under Joe Biden, told CNBC. Things appear idyllic so far, but you know something's going to shock you out of your seats eventually — are the figures accurate, except that the decimal point should be shifted to the right? — which makes monitoring U.S. inflation a captivating experience. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, in a Sunday research note estimated that the big reveal (when the U.S. consumer admits, "I see higher prices") could happen by October. (That could have placed him in Trump's crosshairs.) But markets hit record highs as investors saw the mild inflation numbers as a sign that the Federal Reserve has room to cut rates three times this year — or that tariffs might not drive prices that much higher. Maybe the original premise was wrong: As far as inflation goes, could we be in a happily-ever-after Disney flick, instead of a Shyamalan movie?U.S. prices in July rose less than expected. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual figure at 2.7%. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.2% and 2.8% rise, respectively. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close at new highs. On Tuesday, July's tame CPI report pushed the indexes up 1.13% and 1.39% respectively. Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 also hitting a fresh record. Trump threatens Fed chair Powell with a 'major lawsuit.' In a post on Truth Social, the U.S. president said the potential proceedings would relate to Powell's management of the Fed's headquarters renovations. Perplexity AI offers $34.5 billion to buy Google's browser. The bid for Chrome, which came unsolicited, is higher than Perplexity's $18 billion valuation in July, but the firm said investors have agreed to back the deal. [PRO] Gold prices could reach $4,000, analyst says. Wall Street foresees another rally for the bullion after Trump confirmed that "Gold will not be Tariffed!" One strategist is so bullish on gold he thinks it could jump 14% from today's prices to break the $4,000 level. Is London's financial future evolving or eroding? London's reputation as a leading global financial center is increasingly in question, as it struggles to compete with the likes of New York, Hong Kong and Frankfurt. Brexit still hamstrings the economy, particularly through trade barriers, increased border costs and reduced productivity compared with staying in the European Union. Despite the challenges and setbacks, all is not lost. Business leaders say there is still hope and opportunity for London.
Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
Globalisation can survive the US trade war
Bloomberg Live Events Bloomberg Bloomberg As US President Donald Trump 's sweeping trade levies take effect and raise his country's average duties to the highest since World War II, it's easy to imagine globalization is in reverse and that a new era of protectionism, fragmentation and reshoring has begun. Some of the gloom may be the US was the chief architect of the multilateral trading system and has become the world's most lucrative consumer market, it can't by itself turn back the clock on global economic interdependence. Prosperity gains from comparative advantage and low-cost container shipping are too great for the rest of the world to ignore. Even as the US embraces self-sufficiency and reveals itself to be an unreliable economic partner, others are keen to keep trading.'Despite all the talk of deglobalization, if you just look at the numbers, what we are seeing in the last two and a half years is an acceleration of globalization on the back of a huge commercial success from Chinese companies taking market share on the global stage,' Vincent Clerc, the chief executive officer of A. P. Moller-Maersk A/S, told investors last was after the container shipping giant reported surprisingly resilient demand outside the US and forecast global container volumes could increase by as much as 4% this year. 'There is a new driver in container demand that is adding a lot of upside potential,' Clerc said, predicting this stronger Chinese-led growth might last 'a few years.' (The US this week extended a pause of nosebleed tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days.)Although China's exports to the US have suffered a double-digit percentage hit since Trump first threatened a swathe of new duties in early April, it's offset this by increasing exports to the rest of the world. Such robustness partly reflects stockpiling, and some economists expect a slowdown in the second-half of the year as Washington intensifies scrutiny of the transshipment of Chinese goods to the US via third it's also indicative of 'a dramatic change in China's trade orientation, away from reliance on the U.S. and toward a broader, more diversified global footprint,' according to a report dated Aug. 8 by German asset manager DWS Group. 'The competitiveness of Chinese exports as well as intensifying economic links with regions like the Middle East and Africa is a structural trend that is likely to prevail.'German logistics giant DHL Group is seeing similar shifts in demand, with time-definite US express shipments with a guaranteed delivery date plunging 31% in the second-quarter, while its deliveries to Asia rose 2% and those to the Middle East and Africa jumped 8%.Global trade 'finds its way to keep flowing' and even in the current environment there are 'still growth opportunities and growing trade lanes,' Melanie Kreis, DHL's chief financial officer, told analysts last week. Another DHL executive, Ken Lee, who heads the Asia-Pacific express business, recently called globalization 'too big to fail.'I don't wish to play down the impact of the world's largest economy undermining the rules-based trading system and raising import taxes, which will impose unnecessary costs on consumers, blunt competition, dampen growth, delay investment and cause global trade to grow more slowly than it otherwise tariffs on southeast Asian countries may undo some of the advantages of Chinese and western companies tapping new sources of cheap labor and diversifying their manufacturing footprints, a strategy known as China+ if China's exports are diverted from the US to emerging markets, other countries may impose duties to protect domestic industries. (A reminder that China must do more to support demand by its own consumers.)But with China accounting for more than 30% of global goods manufacturing and dominating in key decarbonization technologies, it's hard to see the world swiftly turning its back on this highly efficient production. Much of the Global South has continued to import Chinese vehicles, which are cheap and of high quality, even as the US and Europe (to a lesser degree) raise trade barriers and warn about China's industrial also shouldn't forget that the majority of global trade doesn't involve the US. Intra-Asia and Asia-Middle East trade corridors are 'some of the fastest growing on the planet,' HSBC Holdings Plc CEO Georges Elhedery said during a call with analysts last month.'Globalization is very much alive and well. It's just taking a very, very different complexion,' Bill Winters, the boss of Standard Chartered Plc, told investors in late July, saying clients were diversifying supply chains, manufacturing and distribution. The London-headquartered bank makes most of its money in Asia and the Middle East and has a large trade finance only around one-fifth of the value of all goods and services produced around the world end up in a different country, according a DHL study in March, meaning global trade potential isn't close to being exhausted.'So far, global trade growth has been highly resilient, and we've also not seen all that much retaliation from countries hit by US tariffs. That's partly because those countries recognize how much they benefit from trade,' Steven Altman, senior research scholar at the NYU Stern School of Business , told me. 'I don't see the US leading a global movement away from trade, and so far it appears globalization can survive Trump 2.0.'Indeed, US protectionism and bullying are likely to convince trading partners to secure access to alternative markets and thereby draw them closer together. After being hit with some of the highest US tariff rates, Brazil and India last week reiterated plans to strengthen mutual trade ties. After striking a long-sought trade deal with the South American Mercosur bloc in December, the European Union should now get on and ratify yes, supply chains face upheaval while the US and China are pulling apart, but that doesn't mean globalization is dead. Rather we may be entering a new era, characterized by US retrenchment, Chinese companies investing overseas — and other countries trading more with each other.
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Business Times
Apac employers rethink employee benefits spend to draw talent, manage costs: survey
[SINGAPORE] Asia-Pacific (Apac) firms are rethinking their employee benefit strategies amid rising costs and stiff competition for talent, according to a survey by Nasdaq-listed global advisory firm WTW. This comes as employers in the region face diverging priorities, said the 2025 Benefits Trends Survey, which gathered insights from nearly 2,000 employers across 20 Apac markets from March to April. On the one hand, employers need to attract talent amid persistent labour shortages and structural gaps in the market, particularly in specialised skills. On the flipside, they face cost pressures that affect their ability to offer employees benefits – which are viewed as tools to attract and retain talent. 'Rising budgetary pressures and benefit costs, particularly around healthcare, are impacting employers' ability to enhance and deliver on their benefits more than ever before,' the survey noted. To reconcile these competing demands, employers are seeking to reap more value from their current investments while managing cost constraints, by rebalancing and reallocating their benefits spending. Conflicting demands: maximising value, reining in costs With rising cost pressures, most firms do not plan to expand their benefits spending or the range of benefits offered in the next three years – as only 20 per cent of respondents said they intended to do so. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 3 pm Thrive Money, career and life hacks to help young adults stay ahead of the curve. Sign Up Sign Up Yet, the vast majority of firms are not looking to cut back on benefits spending either. Even as managing company costs ranked as employers' top benefits priority in 2025, only 2 per cent of respondents plan to reduce benefits spending over the next three years. Rather, the majority of employers are aiming to optimise their existing benefits and to extract greater value from their current benefits spending while they navigate cost constraints. To reconcile the conflicting ambitions, of maximising value while reining in costs, 61 per cent of employers are looking to reallocate or rebalance their benefits spending. This entails carefully considering which benefits employees want and need, as well as assessing which deliver the most value, the survey said. Such a recalibration, which involves adding or enhancing some benefits while reducing or removing others, can be challenging – especially as changes that involve scaling back existing benefits may trigger strong reactions among employees who lose out, it said. Employers should thus carefully consider their communication strategies, which are crucial to managing employee reactions to changes, WTW said. Employers face talent competition, target key 'pressure points' Talent challenges are set to remain a key influence for benefit strategies, as competition for talent ranked as the top concern faced by Apac employers, said WTW. Rising benefits costs and expectations for enhanced experiences also ranked high among the concerns employers faced. Across the region, employers face labour shortages in key skill segments, alongside demographic shifts such as ageing populations and shrinking talent pools, the survey said. 'With talent issues persisting, employers plan to use benefits as a tool to signal their organisational purpose and values as they work to attract and retain talent,' it said. Notably, employers are looking to make benefits more employee-centric, by designing them with a sharper focus on attraction, retention and employee well-being. 'Employers should articulate a clear value proposition through benefits, and support their employees' specific needs (while also) reflecting the organisation's broader values and how they connect emotionally with employees,' WTW said. The survey noted that employers are adopting a more disciplined approach to rebalancing their benefit spend where it matters the most as they work to use benefits to strengthen their employee value proposition. They are investing in employee needs with greater precision and targeting key employee pressure points, from mental health and family benefits to emotional and financial well-being, the survey found. Spotlight on healthcare Health benefits ranked among the top priority areas for benefits, as employers in Apac are projected to face one of the highest medical inflation rates across the globe. To cope with high costs, 51 per cent of employers are looking to enhance the value they get from vendors of healthcare benefits, said WTW. Another 38 per cent plan to adopt targeted programmes to better manage the high-cost conditions, the survey said. Among these, four in five plan to increase the use of targeted programmes to address high-cost conditions such as mental health, women's health, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Notably, the majority of employers view mental health as a top area they wish to focus more on over the next three years, according to the survey. This comes as around one third of employees display signs of anxiety and depression, the survey said, citing data from WTW's 2024 Global Benefits Attitudes Survey. Additionally, more employers are looking to offer comprehensive leave for caregivers, as well as considering putting in place medical benefits that support women's health, WTW noted. Around one quarter of employers plan to or are considering putting in place a menopause policy, up from only 4 per cent who are currently already do so.
