Breakingviews - Japan trade deal breaks US tariff template

Reuters

23-07-2025

HONG KONG, July 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Everything is up for grabs. That's the takeaway from the U.S.-Japan trade pact Donald Trump and Shigeru Ishiba revealed on Wednesday. By setting tariffs on U.S. imports from the Asian country at 15%, including autos, the U.S. president is handing Japan's prime minister a decent win but also beating a big retreat on his flagship "sectoral tariffs". It further complicates Washington's regime of wildly diverging levies.
With reports of his resignation swirling after a bruising election result for his coalition at the weekend, Ishiba declared that his country, which shipped $150 billion in Japanese goods to America last year, had secured the best deal among those that have a trade surplus with the United States. That is true, so far. The agreement puts the tariff 10 percentage points lower than the levy Trump had threatened. The UK secured 10%, but it exports more to the U.S. than it imports.
The surprise is that Japan's deal breaks Trump's tariff template. He pledged there would be separate levies for autos, pharmaceutical goods, steel and semiconductors. Handing the Asian giant a 15% flat rate on auto exports, which comprise nearly 30% of Japan's U.S. shipments, rather than the 25% sectoral rate, suggests nothing about Trump's tariff regime is set in stone besides the 10% baseline duty he has imposed on all of America's global trading partners.
The outlook for Japanese carmakers will further brighten if Trump sets equal or lower tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Take Toyota Motor (7203.T), opens new tab. The world's largest carmaker sold 2.3 million cars in the U.S. last year – 23% of its global total – and produced more than half that amount there. But it also made around 800,000 vehicles in Canada and Mexico. Honda Motor (7267.T), opens new tab and Nissan Motor (7201.T), opens new tab will find it especially painful if auto tariffs on those two countries remain at 25%. South Korea, another big Asian auto exporter, also will now hope to win an exemption.
It's enough to justify a relief rally. An 11% jump in the Topix Autos Index (.ITEQP.T), opens new tab led a broader jump in stocks. Meanwhile, the yield on five-year government bonds rose 9 basis points to 1.11%, the highest since April 1. The Bank of Japan (8301.T), opens new tab unsurprisingly struck a more sober tone because, in the end, it is still a blow for the struggling $4 trillion economy: last year, 53% of Japan's exports to the U.S. crossed the Pacific tariff-free, BNP Paribas analyst William Bratton notes.
Other sops in the deal look less material and well-designed for Trump to tout to an American public. These include a $550 billion commitment for Japan to invest in the U.S. This is nearly four times the value of Japan's exports to America, but SoftBank (9434.T), opens new tab had already pledged to invest $100 billion stateside over the next four years. Ishiba also clarified that his country's pledge to import U.S. rice would be under its "minimum access", so Japan's powerful lobby of farmers will remain protected. If Ishiba does resign following this deal, he may at least avoid being criticised for playing hardball in tariff negotiations. And foreign leaders will be quietly singing his praises.
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