Rupee drops; attempt to move past 85/USD blocked by Kashmir attack jitters
MUMBAI, April 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee yet again failed to move past the psychological 85 mark on Friday after a sell-off in local equities and bonds amid investors weighing the potential for increased geopolitical uncertainty following a deadly militant attack.
The rupee , having peaked at 85.10 during the session, dropped to 85.6550 versus the U.S. dollar.
This is the third time in recent days that the Indian currency has been driven back from the 85 level.
India's Nifty 50 Index (.NSEI), opens new tab dropped over 1%, significantly underperforming other Asian equity indices, which followed their U.S. peers higher.
The 84.90-85 level was always a tough barrier to break, and with the current drawdown in equities, it's understandable why USD/INR has seen a move higher, a currency trader at a bank said.
He pointed out that Indian equities had largely ignored the Kashmir attack until now. That has changed and does not bode well for the rupee in the near term, he added.
Indian bonds declined alongside equities, pushing the yield on the 10-year up by 4 basis points.
INDIA-PAKISTAN STAND OFF
India has said there were Pakistani elements in Tuesday's attack, when militants shot 26 men in a meadow in the Pahalgam area. Islamabad has denied any involvement.
The nuclear-armed nations have unleashed a raft of measures against each other, with India keeping a critical river water-sharing treaty in abeyance and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines, among other steps.
India's army chief will review security arrangements on Friday and visit the site of a deadly attack on tourists.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
37 minutes ago
- Reuters
TRADING DAY Buoyancy trumping uncertainty
ORLANDO, Florida, June 10 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Global markets remain buoyant, awaiting the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks in London and U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday, both of which could have a bearing on guidance from the Federal Reserve next week and investor sentiment more broadly. In my column today I look at how the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration could cause labor market distortions and headaches for Fed officials. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Buoyancy trumping uncertainty On the day The World Bank slashed global growth forecasts, warning of the "significant headwind" from tariffs and heightened uncertainty, global stocks clocked their fifth consecutive all-time high. Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 is a whisker from reaching new peaks and Germany's DAX hit an all-time high last week, while on Wall Street the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are within a couple of percentage points of new record levels also. Yet the reasons for equity investors to be fearful right now are plentiful - worries over growth, inflation, tariffs, long-term interest rates, U.S. debt and deficits, and the fact that China, the world's second-largest economy, is still mired in a low growth and deflationary funk. Something not quite adding up, right? Perhaps. On the other hand, the fiscal taps are being turned on in China and Germany, British finance minister Rachel Reeves outlines her multi-year 2 trillion pounds ($2.7 trillion) spending plan on Wednesday, and U.S. President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill' currently going through Congress is front-loaded with fiscal stimulus too. None of that is really fresh news but the upshot is a lot of liquidity coursing through the global economy. Right now it is something investors appear willing to accept even if the price is increased debt, and for the U.S. and UK in particular, worse public finances. Big corporate deals are being struck, like the OpenAI and Google cloud service tie-up and Meta Platforms reportedly paying $15 billion for a 49% stake in AI startup Scale AI, and implied equity and bond volatility is low. After a period of fretting more about deficits and spiking bond yields, investors may now be viewing the future with their glass half full. Fiscal stimulus is coming and interest rates around the world are being cut. The monetary outliers are Japan and the U.S., but the Bank of Japan could be near the end of its tightening cycle and the Fed may be about to begin easing later this year. On top of this, there's a general belief that Trump will back down from his hardline stance on tariffs and that a palatable deal with China will be reached, the so-called 'TACO' - Trump Always Chickens Out - trade. Fresh news on that front, at least, should be forthcoming on Wednesday. Trump immigration crackdown creates jobs distortions, Fed headaches Seismic shifts in immigration are distorting the U.S. employment picture, making it harder for investors and policymakers to know exactly how much the labor market is actually slowing. Assuming the Trump administration makes good on its pledge to reduce immigration, either by stopping the flow of people coming into the country or by deporting many already here, the labor supply will shrink. The long-term impact of lower immigration is generally agreed to be negative, as new workers are needed to replace retirees, fill job vacancies and drive economic growth. Over time, fewer new workers will likely mean lower growth. But in the short term, a smaller pool of workers results in a tighter labor market, which keeps a lid on the unemployment rate, albeit artificially and probably temporarily. This may already be playing out. Figures released last week showed that employment in May fell by 696,000 jobs. That's the biggest single monthly decline since the historic losses seen during the pandemic in early 2020. Some economists argue that the recent drop is a consequence of Trump's immigration crackdown. Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, which though higher than it was two years ago, is still historically low by any measure. All else being equal, this points to a tight labor market, which should put upward pressure on wages and perhaps even warrant a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve. But that is almost certainly a misreading. When labor supply and the labor force participation rate fall, this brings down a country's so-called 'breakeven' job growth. That's the number of net new jobs the economy needs to keep up with growth in the working-age population and maintain a steady unemployment rate. That figure is falling, and if the Trump administration toughens up its anti-immigration policies further, this decline is likely to accelerate. According to economists at Morgan Stanley, breakeven employment growth averaged 210,000 jobs a month last year, and is averaging 170,000 so far this year. They reckon it will fall to 90,000 by the end of this year and 80,000 next year. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, goes further, estimating that the breakeven rate is "quickly approaching" 50,000 jobs a month due to weakening labor supply growth, primarily because of reduced immigration. "The unemployment rate can remain low, but for the wrong reasons," Sweet says. If these projections prove accurate, monthly employment and job growth could continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate. The contradictory signals this sends could create confusion for both investors and policymakers. In his press conference after the most recent Fed policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly told reporters that the labor market is "solid". The unemployment rate "remains low," and the labor market is "at or near maximum employment." If these headline indicators are the gauge, Powell is absolutely correct. But he also stressed that policymakers are looking at the "whole huge array" of labor market indicators for a truer guide. One of those inputs in the months ahead will no doubt be net immigration. And that could generate significant uncertainty, as there are huge gray areas and wide margins of error when trying to estimate net immigration and its impact on the labor market. In January, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration of 2 million people this year and 1.5 million next year, down from an estimated 3.3 million in 2023. With Trump seemingly hardening his stance on immigration, those projections could turn out to be far too high. Morgan Stanley's economists just slashed their immigration forecasts to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year. If these figures turn out to be closer to reality, we could soon be looking at a "tight" labor market with monthly payrolls gains of well under 100,000. Pity the poor Fed Chair who has to communicate policy in that environment. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Reuters
3 hours ago
- Reuters
Brazil's fiscal package to include higher tax on interest on equity
BRASILIA, June 10 (Reuters) - Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Tuesday that the government's new fiscal package includes an increase in the income tax rate levied on so-called interest on equity (JCP) payments to 20% from 15%. JCP is a form of shareholder remuneration that allows companies to deduct such payments from their corporate tax base. Speaking to reporters, Haddad said that the decision to include the measure - previously proposed by the government but not voted on by Congress - came at the request of lawmakers. Haddad also confirmed that the fiscal package includes the unification of income tax rates on financial investments at 17.5%, replacing the current sliding scale of 15% to 22.5%, which varies according to the investment's holding period. The new rate would apply to all investments, including stocks and bonds, except those currently exempt from income levy, which would begin to be taxed at 5%, as Haddad had already disclosed on Sunday. The minister, who spoke after returning from a meeting with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, said the additional revenue generated by the package would be used primarily to revise the previously imposed financial operation tax (IOF) hike on forfait operations. The IOF decree, which had been introduced to boost public revenues and also raised the tax on private pension funds and some credit and foreign exchange transactions, triggered strong pushback from both Congress and market players, prompting the government to seek an alternative path as lawmakers threatened to overturn the measure. Haddad defended the new fiscal measures on Tuesday, arguing that they are likely to support the strengthening of the Brazilian currency, pave the way for interest rate cuts, and help ensure compliance with this year's and 2026 fiscal targets.
Fashion United
5 hours ago
- Fashion United
French Senate to vote on regulating fast fashion
The French Senate is due to vote Tuesday on a bill to regulate the fast fashion industry, by sanctioning companies and banning advertisements. The bill is targeted at Chinese-founded e-commerce giant Shein, which has a reputation for selling lower quality clothes at a very low price. Easy to order and replace, fast fashion items are exported to France on a large scale, causing pollution and saturating markets. Adopted by the lower house National Assembly in March 2024, the bill will be voted on by the Senate later on Tuesday and is expected to pass, with backing from the government and widespread support in the chamber. The vote is not the final legislative hurdle: a joint committee of senators and lower house deputies is expected to meet from September to produce a joint text, prior to the final adoption of the law. The text plans to "reduce the environmental impact of the textile industry", said Anne-Cecile Violland, the centre-right member of parliament who proposed the bill. Fast fashion is a growing market in France and between 2010 and 2023, the value of advertised products grew from 2.3 billion euros to 3.2 billion euros. Around 48 clothing items per person are released into the French market each year, and 35 are thrown away every second in the country, according to the state environmental agency Ademe. Fast fashion poses a "triple threat", said the minister for ecological transition, Agnes Pannier-Runacher. "It promotes overconsumption, causes ecological disaster and threatens our businesses," she said. Slamming an "invasion" of products that "do not last", the minister expressed hope it would help change things in Europe. Once adopted in France, the European Commission will be notified to ensure it complies with European law according to Pannier-Runacher. Targeting fast fashion The Senate, dominated by the right, modified the bill to target "ultra" fast fashion companies, such as Asian websites Shein ou Temu. The Senate's amendments plan to leave out French and European brands that may be affected by the bill, such as Zara, H&M and Kiabi. The fashion giants will still be obliged to notify their customers about the environmental impact of their products, according to the new bill. "I have no intention of making French brands that contribute to our country's economic vitality pay a single euro," said rapporteur Sylvie Valente Le Hir, member of the right-wing The Republicans party. The bill will impose stricter sanctions on fast fashion companies by scoring their "environmental communication". This "eco-score" will affect all fast fashion companies, Pannier-Runacher said. Those with the lowest scores will be taxed by the government up to 5 euros per product in 2025 and up to 10 euros by 2030. This tax cannot go beyond 50 percent of the price of the original product. Advertisement ban The bill would impose sanctions on influencers who promote such products and ban fast fashion advertisements. The regulation of the fast fashion industry will only succeed with a "collective effort", and not by targeting "a single actor," Shein spokesperson Quentin Ruffat told RTL radio on Monday. According to Ruffat, the law will add "a tax of 10 euros per sold item of clothing by 2030" and "impact the purchasing power" of French people. Environmental organisations are also worried that the law may be misinterpreted. Debates may amount to an interesting framework which still lacks substance, according to Green Senator Jacques Fernique. On Monday, the Textiles Industry Union (UIT) recognised the bill as "a first step" and hoped for its "rapid adoption ... even if the text does not entirely fit our expectations".(AFP)
