Hedge Funds Rush Into Oil Short Bets as OPEC Supply Risk Looms
Hedge funds loaded up on the most bearish bets against Brent crude since October as the market braced for a fresh injection of OPEC+ supply.
Money managers upped their short-only bets on Brent by 16,922 lots to 130,019 lots in the week ended May 27, the most in eight months, according to figures from ICE Futures Europe. At the same time, short-only bets against West Texas Intermediate rose to a three-week high, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
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Forbes
16 minutes ago
- Forbes
Could Ukraine Develop A Nuclear Bomb That Halts Russia's Invasion?
After voluntarily giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine was invaded by Russia, creator of the most ... More powerful hydrogen bomb ever, shown here. Photo: Ulf Mauder/dpa (Photo by Ulf Mauder/picture alliance via Getty Images) After President Volodymyr Zelensky mused that only by joining NATO—or by acquiring nuclear warheads—could he freeze Russia's lightning war against Ukraine, a global expert on atomic arms conducted a fascinating thought experiment. Could the besieged democracy actually produce a nuclear bomb and the missiles capable of delivering that all-powerful explosive across Ukraine's border, able to reach the launch pads of Russia's blitz? If Ukraine succeeded with its own version of the Manhattan Project, could that advance freeze the Kremlin's campaign to take over the liberal enclave, without Kyiv ever having to detonate a single device? These are the interlinked puzzles that Alexander Bollfrass, an acclaimed scholar on nuclear weaponry at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, set out to solve, first in a groundbreaking think piece, and then in an interview with Forbes. Dr. Bollfrass, head of strategy, technology and arms control at IISS, tells me in an interview that he war-gamed this scenario purely to predict the potential consequences of a hypothetical Ukrainian drive to craft an A-bomb, and whether a stockpiled weapon could become the ultimate guardian of a permanent ceasefire. Yet Bollfrass, who as a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard designed war games for the university's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, says he drew on Ukraine's real-life access to plutonium and uranium, and its current missile expertise, to construct these simulated war and peace maneuvers. Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear power plant, site of the world's worst nuclear accident, was recently ... More targeted by a Russian drone. (Photo by Sergei SUPINSKY / AFP) (Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images) Ukraine had a long history of constructing intercontinental ballistic missiles, but no longer possesses any ICBMs. Yet it does still produce an array of cruise missiles, he says, that could be adapted to hold strategic warheads. At the same time, the leadership of Ukraine, with its control of an array of operable nuclear reactors, could siphon off uranium from these sites, but would have to build a network of advanced centrifuges to enrich this to weapons-grade levels. And the Chernobyl reactor, site of the world's worst nuclear meltdown ever, holds enough plutonium to build at least one bomb. But both of these potential pathways toward gaining fissile material for nuclear arms would be immediately detected by monitors posted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. 'Any existing fissile material on Ukrainian territory is under strict IAEA supervision,' Bollfrass tells me. 'The agency's inspectors would immediately detect the diversion of its reactor fuel or plutonium into a nuclear weapons program, quickly alerting the Russians in the process.' The only way to pre-empt detection by these IAEA watchdogs would be for Ukraine to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and expel the atomic inspectors, but those moves would amount to trumpeting Kyiv's clandestine quest to develop a nuclear warhead. And any Ukrainian attempt to secretly operate facilities to produce highly enriched uranium 'would be hard to hide from the world's major intelligence services, the Russians' included,' Bollfrass says. Russian intelligence agents, including those who select bombing targets across Ukraine, would likely use all means possible to locate and destroy these facilities. The Kremlin, he adds, might even opt to launch a first strike, possibly with nuclear-armed missiles. To build a credible deterrent, Ukraine would need to assemble not one device, but a small cache of fission or fusion bombs, increasing the likelihood of detection by Moscow and the incentives for it to obliterate these weapons before they are ever deployed, Bollfrass predicts. When President Zelensky pleaded for Ukraine to be speedily admitted to NATO, during a gathering of the European Council last October, he said he regretted that his predecessors had voluntarily relinquished their stash of nuclear-capped ICBMs a generation ago, in exchange for security pledges that were never truly fulfilled. Russia, which holds the planet's biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons, has issued repeated threats ... More to deploy strategic warheads against Ukraine or its Western partners during its illegal invasion. AFP PHOTO / POOL / HOST PHOTO AGENCY RIA NOVOSTI (Photo credit should read -/AFP via Getty Images) After Ukraine regained its independence upon the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, the liberal, pro-West leaders who took power also inherited nearly 2000 nuclear-tipped Soviet missiles - one of the largest stockpiles in the world. As part of an American-brokered agreement called the Budapest Memorandum, Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. all pledged to respect Ukraine's borders and independence: Washington also provided security assurances to safeguard Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for the country's giving up its strategic ICBMs. But the West's protection of Ukraine's independence and borders has not lived up to the security pledges outlined in the Budapest pact. This failure to beat back Moscow's ongoing blitzkrieg is decimating not only the safety of Ukraine's citizenry, but also the worldwide campaign to freeze nuclear proliferation, Bollfrass says. The great-power democracies that are now aiding Ukraine should quickly bolster its defenses to preserve its position as a bulwark against Russian expansionism and to underscore that 'unprovoked aggression backed by nuclear threats is not rewarded,' he says. 'In the long term, without credible security guarantees of the kind NATO membership provides,' Bollfrass predicts, 'Ukraine may indeed be tempted to reach for nuclear self-help.' Yet he says that Zelensky's NATO-or-nuclear ultimatum last fall was likely a bit of political theater that the actor-turned-president scripted to push forward his ultimate goal: fast-track admission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ultimately seeks not nuclear weapons, but rapid-fire ... More admission into NATO, says a nuclear proliferation scholar (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP) (Photo by JOHN THYS/AFP via Getty Images) Zelensky, an astute student of history and of NATO's origins, almost certainly knows that West Germany, which bordered the Soviet bloc and its immense nuclear firepower, signaled it might restart the German program to create atomic weapons as long as it was frozen out of NATO. 'Concern about German nuclear weapons potential stretched back to World War II, when Nazi Germany conducted an atomic bomb project,' say scholars at the National Security Archive. The Western allies only admitted West Germany into NATO six years after the defense coalition was founded, these scholars add, conditioned on German 'Chancellor Konrad Adenauer's commitment not to produce nuclear weapons.' President Zelensky himself has offered a similar commitment. During a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte last October, Zelensky said Ukraine has no intention to develop nuclear weapons, but does seek protection under NATO's nuclear umbrella.
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
From Galacticos to glory: How Luis Enrique transformed PSG into Champions League winners
PSG's head coach Luis Enrique touches the trophy after winning the Champions League final soccer match against Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner) PSG's head coach Luis Enrique and players Vitinha, left, and Ousmane Dembele look at the trophy at the end of the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno PSG's coach Luis Enrique is thrown into the air by his players as they celebrate winning the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint Germain and Inter Milan, at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (Sven Hoppe/dpa via AP) PSG's Gianluigi Donnarumma, Vitinha, Ousmane Dembele and coach Luis Enrique celebrate after winning the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint Germain and Inter Milan, at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (Peter Kneffel/dpa via AP) PSG's head coach Luis Enrique celebrates with the trophy after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader) PSG's head coach Luis Enrique celebrates with the trophy after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader) PSG's head coach Luis Enrique touches the trophy after winning the Champions League final soccer match against Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner) PSG's head coach Luis Enrique and players Vitinha, left, and Ousmane Dembele look at the trophy at the end of the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno PSG's coach Luis Enrique is thrown into the air by his players as they celebrate winning the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint Germain and Inter Milan, at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (Sven Hoppe/dpa via AP) PSG's Gianluigi Donnarumma, Vitinha, Ousmane Dembele and coach Luis Enrique celebrate after winning the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint Germain and Inter Milan, at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (Peter Kneffel/dpa via AP) PSG's head coach Luis Enrique celebrates with the trophy after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, Saturday, May 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader) PARIS (AP) — Luis Enrique got rid of the Galacticos at Paris Saint-Germain and then became one himself. The Spanish coach, or perhaps he should be called an architect or a visionary, orchestrated a 5-0 destruction of Inter Milan in Saturday's Champions League final. Advertisement The match was so clinically one-sided that it resembled a training session against an amateur team, rather than a three-time European Cup winner. Passing, movement, energy. Tireless pressing, forwards dropping back to defend, wingers protecting fullbacks. Was this really PSG? Yes. All of these attributes were on display in Munich as Luis Enrique joined an elite list of coaches to win the Champions League with multiple clubs. His other success was with Barcelona in 2015 — a 3-1 win against Juventus — but Saturday was sweeter. 'This is the time for a great party and to make the most of this moment," Luis Enrique said. "I felt this connection with the players and the fans, I think it was a very strong connection throughout the season. ' Advertisement Before Luis Enrique's arrival at the start of last season, such teamwork and unselfishness were not the hallmarks of PSG. Far from it. PSG had become increasingly complacent with star names like Neymar, Thiago Silva, Lionel Messi, Edinson Cavani, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Kylian Mbappé. All fine players, some even great, yet all came and went without winning Europe's biggest club prize. Consequentially, the impatience of the club's Qatari owners led to a merry-go-round of coaches. When Luis Enrique took charge he boldly went against what PSG's owners had done since taking charge 14 years ago. Advertisement It was no longer about pandering to star power and, even more importantly, it wasn't about who the new coach signed but rather who he sold. Out went Neymar and midfielder Marco Verratti, who made too many headlines off the field amid regular reports about their lifestyle and a penchant for partying. Then, during the offseason, came the biggest jolt of all as Mbappé — the club's record scorer — joined Real Madrid. How would PSG cope in the French league, let alone the Champions League, without a player they had overly relied on for so long? Rather well it turns out, although it took time and courage. Advertisement What were the turning points in PSG's season? On a rainy autumn night in London, Ousmane Dembélé was dropped by Luis Enrique and PSG lost to Arsenal 2-0 in a dismally poor performance. Luis Enrique made it clear he was looking for dedication in his squad and this was non-negotiable, which is why he dropped Dembélé. Critics lambasted his decision and doubts continued as PSG struggled in the new-look Champions League, losing to Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich. As baffling a decision it was to some, it nevertheless showed that Luis Enrique was not going to give in to player power, like so many of his predecessors. Advertisement Instead of demanding a transfer or moaning, Dembélé said nothing. A few months later, he was transformed into a prolific scorer and is now a potential Ballon d'Or winner. The other turning point came on Jan. 22. PSG faced possible elimination from the Champions League group stage if it lost at home to Manchester City, the 2023 champion. The nightmare scenario saw PSG trailing 2-0, with no Mbappé to bail the team out. What happened next ultimately defined their season, as the club's young players took the initiative and turned an inevitable-looking defeat into a 4-2 win. Noticeably, PSG's redesigned attack clicked with four different scorers rather than relying too heavily on one. Advertisement The young guns carried on as a resurgent PSG added to its domestic double with the Champions League title for a remarkable treble — which Luis Enrique first achieved with Barcelona 10 years ago. It was deeply symbolic that PSG's best player against Inter was 19-year-old Désiré Doué, who set up the first goal and then scored twice. Also, there were four different scorers on the night — just like against City. The last PSG goal was scored by Senny Mayulu, a 19-year-old talent who grew up in the northeastern Parisian suburb of Le Blanc-Mesnil. In memory of his daughter Luis Enrique's daughter, Xana, died six years ago at the age of nine. Advertisement When he was asked about his daughter by broadcaster Canal Plus after the match, Luis Enrique pointed to his heart and said: "It's here every day of my life, whether we win or lose.' PSG fans held up a banner with Xana's name after the match, and Luis Enrique changed his clothing to put on a T-shirt of the foundation he started in her memory. ___ AP soccer:
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Inter Milan President Cautions ‘No Cause For Alarm' Despite Inzaghi's Comments On Future After PSG Loss
Inter Milan President Cautions 'No Cause For Alarm' Despite Inzaghi's Comments On Future After PSG Loss Beppe Marotta says that there is 'no cause for alarm' regarding the future of Simone Inzaghi at Inter Milan despite comments after the Champions League final. The Nerazzurri President spoke in the mixed zone after the 5-0 loss to Paris Saint-Germain, via FCInter1908. Advertisement Inter Milan coach Simone Inzaghi made comments about his future that were far from reassuring after today's Champions League final against Paris Saint-Germain. The 49-year-old said that he 'doesn't know' whether he will be coach of Inter for the Club World Cup. This naturally only served to fuel the rumours about Inzaghi's future. The former Lazio coach has been at Inter for four years now. And there is a certain feeling that he may have come to the end of his cycle – particularly after a result like this evening's. Meanwhile, Inzaghi has also reportedly received a massive money offer from Al-Hilal. Marotta: 'No Cause For Alarm' About Inzaghi Future At Inter Inter Milan chief executive Giuseppe Marotta poses during a photocall prior the Italian Footballers' Association (AIC) Awards ceremony 2023 on December 04, 2023 in Milan. (Photo by Marco BERTORELLO / AFP) (Photo by MARCO BERTORELLO/AFP via Getty Images) But Inter President Beppe Marotta brushed off the comments from Inzaghi. 'He made some remarks,' said the President of Inzaghi's words. Advertisement 'We'll meet with him and hear what he has to say.' But Marotta made clear that 'we're very proud to continue on with him.' 'His response means nothing,' the Nerazzurri President insisted. 'We'll listen to him, there's no cause for alarm.' Meanwhile, Marotta said that the loss to PSG this evening 'will not affect' Inter's decision about Inzaghi. 'Not only does he have a contract which we've decided to meet with him this week about, he also deserves credit for this team's positive cycle.' 'If he wants and intends to continue we're absolutely happy to.' 'The future is a continuation of a winning cycle of this team,' said Marotta. 'We're meeting with the coach simply because we don't want to have a coach on an expiring contract. Marotta made clear that 'we'd like to continue on with him by extending his contract.' 'This cycle has worked very well, with exceptional results. There doesn't have to be a revolution.'
