How Aberdeenshire is already Scotland's toughest election battleground
This politically charged region could throw up unexpected results in the May vote, and small shifts here could make all the difference.
Changing moods can been seen in rising support for Reform UK, which kicks off its local campaign this weekend.
Here's how Scotland's political parties are gearing up for the 2026 vote in what looks like one of the country's toughest battlegrounds.
Five ex-Tories now sit for Reform UK on Aberdeenshire Council.
It's a sign of shifting political winds in a region where the Conservatives have often had strong support.
Aberdeenshire campaigners for Mr Farage's party started their official canvassing campaign in Peterhead on Saturday.
Reform hopes to pick up several seats on the North East regional list which spans all the way down to Dundee – and support in Aberdeenshire will be key to that aim.
Fraserburgh-born businessman Conrad Ritchie, himself an ex-Tory, won 26% of the vote for Reform in a local byelection last October.
'That's us in campaign mode,' he said.
'We've had a great reception. We've had hardly any negativity.
'It's all been positive.'
Mr Ritchie hopes to stand in the Banff and Buchan Coast seat next May.
Reform insiders believe there's an 'excellent opportunity' for the party to win the constituency – a view backed up by an expert who predicts up to three MSPs regionally.
It's not just on the right where the Tories have to fend off a challenge.
Once a stronghold for the party, the Lib Dems believe they can capitalise on Conservative chaos and gain MSPs in Aberdeenshire again.
The party lost its only seat in the North East in 2021.
This time around married Banchory couple Yi-Pei Chou and Michael Turvey – both ex-Tories – will stand as the top two Lib Dem candidates on the regional ballot.
'They're an interesting combination to watch,' said one local political insider. 'They are very ambitious.'
They kick-started their 2026 campaign in Stonehaven earlier this month with party leader Alex Cole-Hamilton.
'Both Yi-Pei and Michael are absolute powerhouses as activists,' he said.
'With the Tories in absolute chaos, we are coming.'
He added: 'There are Lib Dem traditions right across the north-east.
'We're going to be tapping into that door by door, street by street.'
The Conservatives won one constituency and four North East list seats in 2021.
Next year may tell a different story.
But Andrew Bowie, MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, believes the party can defy expectations.
'Don't get me wrong, it's going to be tough next year, but it feels okay,' he tells the P&J.
'Of course Reform comes up on the doorstep, but not in the numbers I was worried of a few months ago.
'As they develop policies and make announcements, they get a lot more questioning, which is good.'
He talked down any chances of a Lib Dem threat – but warned against complacency.
'I'm very confident we can see off that challenge,' he said.
'We're not seeing any resurgence to the level they would need to be at for them to cause great damage to us.'
One local source said Conservative MSP Alex Burnett is worried about losing his seat next May.
However, they added: 'Alex is a phenomenal campaigner, and really pulls the rabbit out of the hat at the very last minute.'
The north-east was a rare bright spot for the SNP at last year's Westminster election.
The party managed to unseat Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East despite losing out elsewhere.
In 2021, the nationalists won all but one constituency in the North East Holyrood region.
Party insiders hope they will benefit from First Minister John Swinney pursuing a more pragmatic position on the future of oil and gas than Nicola Sturgeon.
But Gwyneth Petrie, SNP group leader in Aberdeenshire, warned there is a 'general apathy' about politics among voters.
'It's on us to make sure there's something positive for folk to vote for,' she said.
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn – vying for a Holyrood seat in Aberdeen – will be campaigning heavily across the north-east region.
Insiders hope his name recognition will give the party a boost.
But one political rival said he was 'real marmite' among floating voters.
Former First Minister Alex Salmond, who lived in Strichen, had been hoping his Alba Party could make a big push in the north-east before his death last October.
SNP sources said there was little enthusiasm for Alba in Aberdeenshire among pro-independence voters.
Aberdeenshire has never been a Labour stronghold.
The party currently holds two North East list seats – but support is more concentrated in the cities of Dundee and Aberdeen.
But MSP Michael Marra, based down in Dundee, said every vote across the huge North East region will be 'absolutely crucial'.
'If you look across Aberdeenshire, there are people right across the region who are desperate to see change,' he said.
However, not all Labour supporters are happy with the party's attitude to the north-east.
Banchory-based Andy Brown, suspended as a candidate by the party at the last Westminster election, says Labour needs to shift its approach to the future of oil and gas.
'Drill, baby, drill, that's what we should be doing if it's there,' he said, echoing US President and Aberdeenshire golf course owner Donald Trump.
Mr Brown said he will probably still vote for Labour next May, albeit 'with a heavy heart'.
A region heavily linked to fossil fuels hardly sounds like fertile territory for the Scottish Greens.
But the party pipped the Lib Dems four years ago to win one seat.
Former oil and gas worker Guy Ingerson, based in Aberdeen, is the party's leading candidate in the North East next year.
That's after he beat sitting MSP Maggie Chapman – his old boss – to the top spot.
Mr Ingerson doesn't think it's a handicap being a Green in Aberdeenshire.
'People are smart,' he said.
'They understand oil and gas is not going to be around forever, and we need to invest in alternatives.'
Despite longstanding support for the Tories and rising enthusiasm for Reform, he disputes the idea Aberdeenshire is more right-leaning than other parts of Scotland.
'I don't think most people feel that way,' he said.
He said some potential Reform voters are even 'receptive' to Green policies when he speaks to them while out campaigning.
Next year promises uncertainty.
But polling expert Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, expects the SNP to perform strongly in the constituency vote.
That will leave their rivals scrambling for scraps on the regional ballot.
'They end up exceeding their fair share of the seats, which means other parties have to lose out,' he said.
Mr Faulds reckon Reform are primed to pick up at least three MSPs.
He says the Lib Dems and Greens can win a seat each provided they perform in line with expectations.
That would mean it's Labour and the Tories who risk missing out, due to the Reform squeeze and SNP dominating constituencies.
'Labour's looking at about 12% of the vote – last time that was sufficient to get them two MSPs,' he said.
'This time it would only get them one.'
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