Breakout hitters for 2025 fantasy baseball: Why Dylan Crews, Kyle Manzardo could be ready to thrive

NBC Sports

06-03-2025

Last year, I started this column to find the next Josh Lowe. The idea was to prevent us from having 'The One Who Got Away' when we give up on a player we like too early. Josh Lowe was one of my favorite young breakout hitter picks in 2022, but he struggled to start the year and was demoted a few times, so I was tentative about drafting him in 2023. Of course, that year he hit .292 with 20 home runs and 32 steals, and I was crying into my pint of ice cream at the end of the night.
I figured that if we looked at highly regarded prospects who failed to live up to expectations in their MLB debuts but had solid underlying metrics, we might be able to more easily identify which players not to give up on. Last year's article brought me to Lawrence Butler, Zach Neto, Brenton Doyle, and Jordan Westburg. Unfortunately, my choice for the 'next Josh Lowe' was Parker Meadows. Still, the exercise proved useful, so we're going to do it again.
Rotoworld Staff,
The criteria for what makes somebody the 'Next Josh Lowe' is that they made their debut in the previous season, had at least 100 MLB plate appearances, and had an offensive WAR under 1.0. That means no Jasson Dominguez, who had only 67 MLB at-bats, or Coby Mayo, who had 46 at-bats last year. That also means no Heston Kjerstad or Tyler Soderstrom, who had offensive WARs over 1.0. I also looked for players who were legitimate prospects, either making top 100 lists or featured inside their own team's top 100.
The next step was my personal sorting. I looked beyond the surface-level stats (since the point is that they would have been bad), and ooked at barrel rate, max exit velocity, swinging strike rate, chase rates, and overall contact to get a sense of who has a workable approach at the plate and who was able to make solid contact overall contact. Even in Lowe's bad 2023 call-up, he had an O-Swing% under 30%, a slightly above league average SwStr%, a 5.2% barrel rate, and good minor league batted ball data, so there were hints at a viable fantasy profile (especially since we knew his scouting report).
When all that was done, I had six players who could be the 'next Josh Lowe,' two players who won't start out of spring training, and one player who technically fit the criteria but is being drafted far too high right now. For me, part of being 'the next Josh Lowe' is about somebody drastically outperforming their ADP value after a tough rookie season, so I guess ADP is the final component. We'll go through the case for each of these hitters, and then I'll anoint the next breakout hitter at the end of the article.
(All ADP information is taken from NFBC Online Championship 12-team drafts from February 12th to March 5th - 36 drafts)
Potential Young Hitter Breakouts
Name
Team
Ben Rice
NYY
Dylan Crews
WSN
Kyle Manzardo
CLE
José Tena
Addison Barger
TOR
Junior Caminero
TBR
Jackson Holliday
BAL
Colt Keith
DET
Evan Carter
TEX
That's 11 names who, mostly, passed the benchmarks I put in place. I will admit that both Junior Caminero and Jackson Holliday were well below average in swinging strike rate and overall contact rate, but they are also far and away the two highest-profile prospects on this list, so I felt it was warranted to keep them in the article to discuss them in more detail. However, I will not discuss José Tena, since it seems Paul DeJong will be the starting third baseman in Washington, and I won't discuss Addison Barger because he's not expected to make the Blue Jays opening day roster after their off-season additions. Both of them are names to keep in the back of your head if they get a chance.
That leaves...
As I mentioned above, I'm writing about Caminero here because he's worth a discussion, but he won't be my choice because part of the criteria is 'outperforming their ADP value after a tough rookie season.' I just can't see Caminero surpassing this aggressive ADP. In fact, if we're going just by surface-level stats, Caminero failed to qualify in three of the five criteria areas based on last year's numbers. His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) was higher than the league average, as was his 38.6% chase rate, and his 70.3% contact rate was below league average. Still, we know how good Caminero is, and we know he was battling injuries last year, so it seemed necessary to keep him on here.
In 2024, Caminero battled through multiple leg injuries to hit .274/.337/.521 with 16 home runs in 59 games at Triple-A. When he finally did get a chance to get consistent MLB at-bats, he was far more aggressive than he had been in the minors and posted a 14% SwStr%. We should expect that to correct itself, but he has been about a 12% SwStr% hitter in the minors, so it wouldn't be a shock if that settles around 13% or higher in the big leagues. While that's below average, it's not below average for somebody that hits the ball as hard as Caminero does. He only pulled the ball 37% in his MLB sample size last year, but he's been about a 43% pull rate guy in the minors, and we know the Rays loved pulled fly balls, so I expect Caminero to get back to that rate in 2025. That means there is real power upside if he can dial back his 50% groundball rate. In spring training he is currently sporting a 79% fly ball rate, which is comically high, but I do think shows us that he is working to try and put the ball in the air more than he did last year.
The Rays figure to start him regularly at third base, where he has a baseline as a .260 hitter with 25-30 home run power in their minor league stadium in 2025. That alone would make him worthy of being considered for this 'title,' but the lineup around him isn't great, and he;s unlikely to steal more than about five bases this season, which means it's hard to see him really out-producing an ADP that already has him going as essentially a top 70 player. I don't have any issues with Caminero; I just don't think he's going to be a major draft value for us in 2025.
Holliday is the other massive name on this list, given that he came into 2024 as the number one prospect in baseball. However, his ADP is far more likely to result in draft value...if you believe in Jackson Holliday for 2025.
Holliday made his MLB debut in 2024, but things didn't go as well as many hoped for the top prospect in baseball. He hit .059/.111/.059 in his first 36 plate appearances with a 50% strikeout rate and was demoted to Triple-A early in the season. While he was slightly better in the second half after being called back up, he only hit .218/.285/.365 with five home runs and a 30% strikeout rate in his final 172 plate appearances. It should be noted that he didn't exactly tear up Triple-A either, hitting a solid .271/.431/.477 with 10 home runs and eight steals in 73 games. The high walk rate was great to see, and he's never run high swinging strike rates in the minors, so I don't think the MLB strikeout rate is sticky, but he didn't really do anything last year that makes me think he's going to be a well above-average MLB player in 2025 as a 21-year-old.
He only checked the boxes in one criteria based on last year, his chase rate. His barrel rates and max exit velocities weren't bad, but he also posted a 55% groundball rate in his MLB at-bats and a 48% rate in Triple-A, so that will severely cap his power ceiling if his average exit velocities are around 89 mph. The future is likely bright for Holliday, but he'll be 21 years old this season and looked overmatched against MLB pitching for much of last year. The Orioles are also a team with World Series aspirations and plenty of talented infield prospects, so Holliday, who has only played 92 career games at Triple-A, could still run the risk of being demoted if he starts the season struggling again. I'm just not sure I feel good enough about his prospects in 2025 to predict a real breakout.
Crews was third on the list of players above, surpassing the criteria in three of the five categories. All of his swinging strike rate, chase rate, and contact rate were above league average last year despite his underwhelming .218/.288/.353 slash line. Additionally, the only criteria where Crews missed was with a 6.4% barrel rate; however, the league average was 6.9%, and Crews only had 132 plate appearances, so it's not as if he displayed a skill that was clearly below the league average.
Crews' 34% hard-hit rate in Triple-A last year suggests that quality contact is well within his range of outcomes, and his overall Process stats were above average for almost the entirety of his MLB action. I like that he doesn't chase out of the zone, with just a 29.5% O-Swing%, and his poor average had nothing to do with swinging and missing, since his SwStr% was just 9.9%. His overall contact rate of 77.6% is appealing for a rookie in his first taste of MLB pitching, and I appreciate that his pull rate stayed consistent with what he showed in the minors. His fly ball rate was also fairly consistent with what we've seen in the minors, but his groundball rate jumped while his line drive rate plummeted to just 10%. The difference in squaring up a baseball to be a line drive versus a groundball is so minuscule, and I think that's an adjustment that Crews can make in another big league season.
I also love that he plays for a Washington team that is embracing their young talent, so there really isn't a scenario where Crews is taken out of the starting lineup this season. I think he has the potential to hit about .250-.260 with 18 home runs, 140 Runs+RBI, and 30 steals while getting over 600 plate appearances in Washington, and that could make him solid value at pick 115, but his ADP has been rising of late, so I'm not sure just how much he'll 'outproduce' that.
Keith had far and away the most opportunities of anybody on this list last year, getting 556 plate appearances for the Tigers while hitting .260/.309/.380 with 13 home runs and seven steals. All of which led to a -1.9 offensive WAR.
For the vast majority of the season, Keith's process was above average. That makes sense for a hitter who had just a 10.5% SwStr% with a 78.5% contact rate in his rookie season. He does chase out of the zone a bit more than we'd like, but he did that in the minors, and that's mainly him chasing pitches on the fringe of the strike zone that he can make contact with. I'd love him to be a little more selective to unlock some more power, but it's not a bad approach. You can just see him falling off over the final four to six weeks of the season, which makes sense, considering he had played over 70 games in a pro season just once, and it was the 126 games he played in 2023. Playing 148 games is a major grind, and we see plenty of young guys wear down.
Before that slump at the end, his barrel rate was just under the league average, and he was pulling and lifting the ball at a similar rate to what he did in the minors. His strikeout rate was also over 2% lower, and his walk rate was up a bit, even though the season-long numbers there don't concern us. His 109.4 max exit velocity suggests there is some power in his profile, but even in Triple-A, when he posted a 35% hard hit rate, his average exit velocity was just 88.7 mph. Given that his fly ball rates are usually around 40%, and he plays in Comerica Park, which suppresses power, it's hard to see Keith emerging as more than a 15-homer bat at the big league level. He should post a solid batting average and good on-base percentage, but he also has never stolen more than seven bases in a season, so is that the profile of a hitter who can drastically outperform this ADP and be a major fantasy value for us?
Carter has taken a roundabout way onto this list because he looked like a major stud in his 23-game sample in 2023 before hitting just .188/.272/.361 in 45 games in 2024 before having surgery to fix a stress reaction in his back. Anytime you see a back injury that requires surgery, you have to worry about the long-term outlook of a hitter, given how rotational the activity is.
Yet, in his 68-game MLB sample, Carter has checked the box in four criteria for this article that make him a good candidate for the 'Next Josh Lowe.' In that sample, Carter has a 7.1% barrel rate, 9% SwStr%, 16.4% chase rate, and 75.4% zone contact rate. All of those are league average or better. The only place where he lags behind is his 108.7 mph max exit velocity, which suggests there may be some limit to his power ceiling. He also posted just a 21.8% hard-hit rate in 530 plate appearances in the minor leagues in 2023, so it's not as if he has a long minor league track record of hitting the cover off the ball.
The other issue is that, in his small 40 plate appearance MLB sample size, he's hitting just .111/.172/.111 against left-handed pitching with a 34.5% strikeout rate. Josh Lowe had similar issues with platoon splits, so Evan Carter could still be the winner here even if he only hits against right-handed pitching, but it does make it a bit harder for him. We also need to see that he'll continue to run despite the back surgery. If his ceiling is as a 15 home run hitter, then we need him to retain that 25 stolen base speed to really give us fantasy value. Considering the Rangers are likely to platoon him, Carter could easily hit .260 this season with 15 home runs, so if the speed is there and he can get 20+ steals in over 500 plate appearances against mainly right-handed pitching, that's a compelling case to be our choice at the end of the article.
I spent some time with Manzardo in spring training this year and talked to him a bit about the adjustments he made last year that led to his solid September and October performance. In 83 Triple-A games in 2024, Manzardo hit .267/.398/.548 with 20 home runs, an 18.4% strikeout rate, and a 16.8% walk rate. While his first stint in the big leagues didn't go well, slashing .270/.333/.540 with five home runs in 23 games in September to end the regular season. Both Manzardo and Guardians manager Stephen Vogt talked openly about the team putting Manzardo in a difficult decision of going from playing the field every day in the minors to only DHing and pinch-hitting in the big leagues. I think we have to account for that adjustment period when evaluating why Manzardo became more successful in his second stint with the big club.
In his 156 plate appearance MLB sample size, Manzardo posted a 9.5% barrel rate, 11.1% SwStr%, and 29.3% chase rate. That cleared three of our five criteria for this article, and his 73.4% contact rate was just under the mark we were looking for. We should note that, even in his strong month of September, that contact rate was just 72.7%, so he was under the league average mark in both MLB stints. What I do like about that second MLB stint is that Manzardo's walk rate improved to nearly 9%, which is closer to the hitter he was in the minors. His average exit velocity increased only slightly to 89.2 mph, but his barrel rate rose to 11.1% in part because he reduced his fly ball rate a bit and increased his pull rate to 49%, which seemed to suggest that he was getting more comfortable in the batter's box and looking to turn on the ball a little bit more.
In that sense, I think Manzardo could be a good value at this draft cost. Vogt has openly mentioned that Carlos Santana will get most of the work at first base, which means Manzardo might not pick up that eligibility in most league types for a long time. However, he should start against all right-handed pitchers and is a good bet to hit .260-.270 with 20+ home runs and 120 Runs+RBI hitting in the middle of that lineup. He doesn't steal bases, so the question we have to ask ourselves is, just how much upside does he truly have as a UT-only with those stats? Is it a value at pick 360? Yes, I believe so, but I'm not sure it will meaningfully impact your team in the same way Josh Lowe did in 2023.
Surprisingly, Ben Rice met the threshold in four of the five potential criteria here and didn't fall below the MLB average in any of them. Despite his pedestrian .171/.264/.349 slash line and 27% strikeout rate in his 178 MLB plate appearances, he had a 15.6% barrel rate, which was well above the 6.9% MLB average. He also posted a 10.5% SwStr% and 29.5% chase rate, which were both better than the league averages there, and a 77.2% contact rate that is not only better than league average but the third-best of any player on this list. His xBA of .235 was also WELL above his actual .171 batting average, if you're into that sort of thing.
Rice also had a great 2024 season in the minors, hitting .273/.400/.567 with 24 home runs and 10 steals in 79 games between Double-A and Triple-A. After just 30 games at Triple-A, the Yankees promoted him to the majors due to the injuries to Anthony Rizzo. While that may have been a step too far too quickly for Rice, we already established that his baseline production wasn't as bad as we might have thought. The 25-year-old has always had great plate discipline and pulled the ball 49% of the time in the minors, so that approach should work for him in Yankee Stadium. Even during his struggles in 2024, he still pulled and lifted the ball at the same rate as he did in the minors, and it's nice to see a young player not change who they are when they get to the big leagues. He may have just needed more time to see his process pay off.
So Rice is my choice then, right? Well, not so fast.
With Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list with tennis elbow in both elbows, we could see Rice get more time at DH. However, in spring, the Yankees have been using that spot to rotate rest for players. On Thursday, they are running out a lineup that looks a lot like an Opening Day lineup, and it has Trent Grisham in center field with Aaron Judge at DH. Allowing Judge to DH would be a huge help for his health and a boon for the Yankees' defense since Grisham has warts as a hitter but remains a really strong defender. All of that, plus the impending return of Stanton at one point, makes it hard to project plate appearances for Rice and makes it tough to predict him as the Josh Lowe-type of breakout.
Who is the breakout hitter choice?
So the 'finalists' for this award are Dylan Crews, Evan Carter, and Ben Rice. I will admit that I also really want to make Ben Rice the final answer, and if the Yankees were willing to play him regularly against righties at DH, then he would likely be my choice. So far this spring, he has only started five games, and three of them have been at catcher, where he is not going to make the roster as a backup catcher. If we get any indication in the coming weeks that Rice is going to play regularly, then I will be drafting him on as many teams as I can, so keep an eye on that.
That leaves Crews and Evan Carter, and I will say that Crews is one of my most-drafted players this year. I think he's going to have a strong year and a big bounce back in his second season. However, as I mentioned above, his ADP is already 115 in recent drafts, so I can't sit at this keyboard with confidence and tell you that he's going to finish as a top 70 player and outproduce that ADP by a lot. Which is why the answer here is Evan Carter. I believe Carter is going to play every day against right-handed pitching if his body holds up. I believe he can produce a 20/20 season in that role with a good batting average, and so I believe he could easily outproduce his ADP by over 100 picks, which gives him the edge over Crews here in the finals.