Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s murky future looms over the new Blue Jays season

CBC

26-03-2025

Kind of like that old saying about real estate, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays season will be all about three things: Vladdy, Vladdy, Vladdy.
Sure, the Jays would like to return to the playoffs after missing out last season with a dismal 74-88 record that put them dead last in the American League East. And, who knows, maybe their off-season roster tweaks will pay off, the stars will align, and they'll make that happen. That would be great.
But, unless and until the Jays sign franchise cornerstone Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a big new contract to prevent him from hitting free agency this fall, the main topic of conversation around the Jays will continue to be whether Vladdy is staying or leaving.
With so much of Toronto's future hinging on the answer to that question, every win or loss this season will be viewed through the prism of whether it helps convince Guerrero (and, to a lesser extent, fellow homegrown star Bo Bichette) to re-up with the Jays or pushes him toward the door.
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Here's where things stand as the Jays prepare for their Opening Day matchup with visiting Baltimore on Thursday afternoon:
Guerrero appears set to test free agency at the end of the year after cutting off negotiations with the Jays upon his arrival at spring training last month. The 26-year-old first baseman, who was the AL MVP runner-up in 2021, when he swatted a career-high 48 home runs, and finished sixth in MVP voting last year after hitting .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers and 103 RBIs, said at the time (through an interpreter) that he wanted "to be a Blue Jay for the rest of my career." But, he added, "it's business, so I'm going to have to listen to 29 more teams."
Guerrero is reportedly seeking a 14-year deal for $500 million US. In present-day dollars, that would be the second-largest contract in baseball history — behind only the 15-year, $765M deal that Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets in December after helping the cross-town Yankees reach the World Series. Shohei Ohtani's 10-year, $700M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers is 97 per cent deferred, making it worth "only" about $460 million in today's money.
In terms of average annual value, a 14-year, $500M deal would work out to $35.71M per year. That's more than $15M below Soto's average salary, more than $10M below Ohtani's adjusted figure, and would rank 12th all-time.
Sounds fairly reasonable (as far as $500M for playing a sport goes), and the Blue Jays reportedly met Guerrero's raw asking price. However, deferrals in the offer brought it down to about $450M in today's money, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi.
Yes, $50 million is a lot of money to you and me. But, as Davidi points out, that works out to less than $3.6M per season over 14 years. The Jays are paying more than that to Myles Straw, a 30-year-old stopgap outfielder who hit one home run over the last three years. And what's even $50M to a team that will pay an estimated $240M-plus in player salaries this year alone and just spent hundreds of millions more to upgrade its stadium?
Look, nobody wants to overpay for anything. But Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins are taking a big risk by not locking Guerrero up before his walk year. If he has another big season, Guerrero's asking price will probably go up — maybe way up. And even if he regresses back toward his not-so-great 2022 and '23 levels, you have to think other teams will still be willing to take a shot on a prime-age star with a 48-homer season and an MVP runner-up under his belt.
If Guerrero does bolt, Toronto could be facing a long rebuild due to its inability to land top-shelf free agents. The Jays at least acted like big players in the market over the last two winters, making competitive offers to the most coveted stars. But they struck out on Ohtani and Soto, and also whiffed on Plan B options like Corbin Burnes and Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki this off-season.
Instead, the jilted Jays settled for flawed slugger Anthony Santander, fading star pitcher Max Scherzer and closer Jeff Hoffman. Reliever Yimi Garcia is back after being traded to Seattle last July, but the Jays couldn't pull the same trick with lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi, who signed with the Angels after Toronto dealt him to Houston as part of their trade-deadline selloff last July.
Santander (signed to a five-year, $92.5M US deal) is a 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder who bashed a career-high 44 homers last season for Baltimore. That ranked third in the majors, trailing only Aaron Judge (58) and Ohtani (54) — the AL and NL MVPs. But Santander's on-base percentage was just .308 (compared to .458 and .390 for Judge and Ohtani) and he's not strong defensively.
Scherzer (one year, $15.5M) is a three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer. Problem is, that future is near. Mad Max turns 41 in July and missed most of last season with Texas due to back, shoulder and hamstring injuries. In spring training, he was bothered by a thumb issue.
Another newcomer to watch is Alan Roden, a 2022 third-round draft pick who's set for his major-league debut after making the team with a dynamite spring training. The 25-year-old outfielder hit a ridiculous (even for spring) .423/.556/.731 in the Grapefruit League and should see the field right away as centre-fielder Daulton Varsho completes his rehab from shoulder surgery. for this season.