
Why Israel's attacks are backfiring as Iranians rally around the flag
Israel appears to have forgotten a lesson from the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980. Instead of inducing regime change, it led to the people of Iran rallying behind the Islamic Republic in the name of nationalism, not necessarily out of love for the clerical elite.
Rather than fuelling internal dissent, Israel's recent strikes have similarly sparked a resurgence of nationalist feeling - centred not on support for the regime, but on defence of the nation.
There have been public mourning ceremonies and online tributes. Even some of those once aligned with the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement have begun expressing solidarity with those they now frame as 'defenders of the homeland'.
In working-class neighbourhoods and rural areas, where opposition movements had struggled to gain a foothold, such sentiments are even stronger.
Israel's attempt to divide the Iranian people from their state has, at least for now, backfired. The dominant reaction inside Iran has not been jubilation or uprising, but a rallying around the flag - a phenomenon familiar to those who study the mechanics of national trauma and external threat.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
The targeting of high-ranking officials, far from emboldening calls for regime change, has been interpreted by many Iranians as a direct assault on national sovereignty.
Beyond Israel's high-profile air strikes on Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure, and the deliberate suppression of Iran's air defence systems, the most consequential and defining achievement of Israel's recent military campaign lies elsewhere: in the targeted assassinations of Iran's top military leadership.
Broader ambitions
The deaths of Mohammad Bagheri, the Iranian army's chief of staff; Hossein Salami, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC's Aerospace Force, among others, have left the upper echelons of Iran's military apparatus shaken.
These were not peripheral figures. They were the architects of Iran's regional deterrence doctrine, and their coordinated elimination - within hours - signals a shift in the nature and objectives of Israel's campaign.
The operation went far beyond a preemptive strike against nuclear escalation; it delivered a calibrated blow to the strategic command structure of the Islamic Republic.
Israel might have inadvertently provided the Islamic Republic with a powerful political gift: a moment of cohesion, a common enemy
While Israeli officials officially maintain that their core objective is to stall or derail Iran's nuclear ambitions, the scale and precision of the strikes - particularly Monday's attack on a national television station, and the assassinations of top officials - suggest broader ambitions.
For years, there has been speculation in regional and western policy circles that Israel's long-term strategic calculus views a strong, stable and territorially intact Iran as an enduring geopolitical threat. Israel regards Iran not merely as a hostile state, but as a regional civilisational rival whose power must be contained - not just its nuclear programme, but its very political and geographic coherence.
This strategic logic has shaped decades of covert operations, diplomatic isolation efforts, and economic sanctions. It also informs long-standing ideas - whispered and sometimes stated outright - about eventual regime change, and even the fracturing of Iran into smaller, weaker successor states.
Such visions, once confined to hawkish policy white papers in Washington and Tel Aviv, gained renewed currency in the wake of the nationwide protests in Iran following the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini. The uprising, led by women and youth under the slogan 'Woman, Life, Freedom', presented the clearest domestic challenge to the Islamic Republic in a generation.
Sensing an opportunity, both the US and Israel amplified their support for opposition groups. Among them, Reza Pahlavi - the exiled crown prince - emerged as a symbolic figure. His widely publicised visit to Israel, and his statements openly calling for coordinated support to overthrow the Islamic Republic, was unprecedented. This convergence of opposition figures and foreign governments marked a shift from passive solidarity to open alignment.
Liberation narrative
That realignment became more explicit in the aftermath of this month's strikes, when Israel's messaging pivoted. No longer framed solely around nuclear non-proliferation, Israel began portraying its operations as part of a broader struggle to liberate the Iranian people from a repressive regime.
The narrative emphasises a separation between the Islamic Republic and the Iranian populace, insisting that this is not a war against Iran, but against its rulers. Public campaigns have sought to connect Israel's military actions to the aspirations of ordinary Iranians. Diaspora figures such as Pahlavi and former footballer Ali Karimi have publicly echoed this framing, calling on Iranians to support the downfall of the regime.
But despite the clear strategic communications effort, the campaign has failed to capture the domestic imagination in Iran.
A colonial reckoning: How Israel's war on Iran reopens old wounds Read More »
What the Israeli leadership and its allies might have underestimated is the Iranian public's deeply ingrained historical memory and reflexive resistance to foreign intervention. While opposition to the Islamic Republic remains widespread, especially among younger and urban populations, the sight of a foreign military killing Iranian commanders on Iranian soil triggers an altogether different sentiment.
This shift is not just symbolic. The level of domestic unity being observed, especially in contrast to past periods of internal unrest - such as the 2019 fuel protests or the Amini demonstrations - suggests that Israel might have inadvertently provided the Islamic Republic with a powerful political gift: a moment of cohesion, a common enemy, and a temporary suspension of internal divisions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thus joined the ranks of Saddam Hussein, whose decision to invade Iran in 1980 consolidated Ayatollah Khomeini's precarious position among other revolutionary factions in Iran.
It is premature to say whether this unity will last. Iran remains a deeply fractured society with generational, ideological and economic cleavages. But for now, it is clear that the Israeli strikes have not accelerated regime collapse; rather, they might have delayed it. And in the long arc of strategic planning, Israel's most recent operation may be remembered not for what it destroyed - but for what it unintentionally reinforced.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Khaleej Times
25 minutes ago
- Khaleej Times
Tehran will respond if US crosses 'red line', says Iranian ambassador to the UN
The United States is "complicit" in Israel's strikes in Iran, Tehran's ambassador to the United Nations claimed on Wednesday, vowing that his country would respond if Washington crosses a "red line". After decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, Israel says its surprise air campaign that began on June 13 is aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons — an ambition Tehran denies. Iran said early Wednesday that it fired hypersonic missiles at Israel in the latest round of overnight strikes between the arch foes. US President Donald Trump has said that Washington has played no part in the bombing campaign by its ally Israel, but has also warned Iran that his patience is wearing thin. "We firmly believe that the United States is complicit in what Israel is doing," Iranian ambassador Ali Bahreini told a press conference. "And at any time, at any point, if we come to the conclusion that the United States is directly involved in attacks against Iran, we will start responding to the United States." He said Tehran was "vigilant" about Trump's "completely unwarranted" and "hostile" remarks. "There is a line which, if crossed, there should be a response on our side... once the red line is crossed, the response will come," Bahreini said. "We will respond strongly and we will stop aggression from any side, be it Israel or the United States," he told the UN correspondents' association. "And we have given a message to the United States that we will respond very firmly and will stop the aggression by anybody -- including the United States. Bahreini also said Tehran was "resolute in responding to Israeli attacks". "We will respond very, very, very seriously and strongly, and that is what we are doing now. Nobody should expect Iran to show any kind of restraint," he said. He also criticised the attitude of Western and European nations. "Not only they are not condemning the attacks and aggression, they are trying to justify the aggression," he said. Asked about a possible resumption of negotiations with Washington over Iran's nuclear programme, the ambassador said that for now, Iran was "not thinking about any scenario" other than "defending ourselves". Addressing the UN Human Rights Council on Wednesday, Bahreini issued a warning to Israel's allies. "The Israeli regime's supporters, and the United States at the forefront, should know that supporting this regime means directly supporting international humanitarian and human rights law violations," he said.


Khaleej Times
25 minutes ago
- Khaleej Times
WhatsApp 'concerned' services to be blocked after Iran calls to delete app
WhatsApp said it was "concerned" that its services would be blocked in Iran after a state broadcaster urged the public to delete the messaging app, saying it was sharing data with arch-rival Israel. State television IRIB appealed to Iranians on Tuesday to delete WhatsApp from their phones, alleging that the app collected users' personal data and "last known locations and communications," and shared them with Israel. On Wednesday, Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the sixth straight day, with Israel saying it struck a nuclear site near Tehran. A WhatsApp spokesperson dismissed the IRIB claims, saying all messages sent on the app were "end-to-end encrypted," with only the sender and recipient able to access them. "We're concerned these false reports will be an excuse for our services to be blocked at a time when people need them the most," the spokesperson told AFP. "We do not track your precise location, we don't keep logs of who everyone is messaging and we do not track the personal messages people are sending one another," they said. WhatsApp also does not "provide bulk information to any government". Israel launched a massive bombing campaign against Iran on Friday that has hit nuclear and military facilities, as well as residential areas. Iran has responded by launching missiles and drones, and early on Wednesday said it had fired hypersonic missiles at Israel. Tehran announced on Friday that it was placing temporary restrictions on the Internet for the duration of the conflict. Numerous sites and apps have since been at least partially inaccessible. The authorities appealed to the public on Tuesday to "minimise their use of equipment connected to the internet and to take appropriate precautions" online. For their own safety, civil servants and their security teams have been banned from using any connected devices, including smartphones, watches and laptops during the Israeli air offensive. In the wake of nationwide protests triggered by the 2022 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, Iranian authorities had blocked several apps and online services, including WhatsApp.


The National
26 minutes ago
- The National
Inside Israel's most extensive strikes yet on Iran
New satellite imagery has revealed the scale of destruction from Israel's latest wave of air strikes on Iran, with some of the country's most sensitive nuclear and missile factories hit. Our analysis shows that at least two of Iran's five key nuclear sites suffered significant damage, raising concerns about the potential risk of contamination. So, what exactly was struck, and is there a risk of a nuclear leak? Since the attacks directly on nuclear energy sites, UN watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency has warned of a risk of radiological or chemical contamination due to the attacks. However, radiation levels outside the factories currently remain within normal limits, and no leak has been detected. Although the strikes primarily focused on military and nuclear infrastructure, the civilian toll is rising. Iran's Health Ministry has confirmed that at least 224 people have been killed and more than 1,200 injured in the wave of Israeli attacks, figures that underline the human cost beyond military or energy targets. Natanz nuclear enrichment plant One of the most heavily struck sites was Natanz, a factory at the heart of Iran's uranium enrichment programme. Satellite images captured on June 14 show damage to at least five structures at the complex, where thousands of centrifuges are housed. These centrifuges are used to enrich uranium, a key material for civilian nuclear energy but also a potential pathway to developing nuclear weapons. Before and after images show at least five damaged structures. Satellite footage from June 14 reveals direct hits to areas previously containing advanced centrifuges. Plumes of black smoke seen in social media videos on June 13 corroborate the timing and severity of the strike. Over the past three years, Natanz has been the site where Iran has produced most of its enriched uranium stockpile, including quantities enriched to near weapons-grade levels. This has brought the country significantly closer to the technical threshold required to build a nuclear weapon, according to western intelligence assessments. The IAEA has since confirmed 'direct impacts' on underground enrichment halls is a significant development. Although radiation levels remain normal, UN inspectors have raised concerns about potential chemical or radiological contamination within the complex. North Tabriz military site The Tabriz complex in north-western Iran is believed to be the country's second-largest major missile base with underground silos. Its location suggests that parts of eastern and central Europe could be within range of missiles launched from the site. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the base appears to house mobile launchers for Shahab-1, Shahab-2 and possibly Shahab-3 ballistic missiles. Also believed to be present are two reinforced silos, thought to contain Shahab-2 or Shahab-3 missiles. The surrounding mountainous terrain and hardened structures are designed to protect the missiles in the event of an attack. Israeli sources estimate the launch area covers about 50,000 square kilometres. The nearby Tabriz International Airport was also struck by Israel, with images showing significant damage to runways. Kermanshah: IRGC tunnel complex hit Another set of newly published satellite images shows extensive damage to another missile base run by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps near the western province of Kermanshah. A close-up from the base shows damage to the entrance, believed to lead to an underground missiles storage centre. The full impact on Iran's military is yet to be determined, but the latest images strongly suggest that Israel's strikes have been successful in hindering at least part of Tehran's missile capability. Storage warehouse Not all targets are known military sites or nuclear factories. Social media footage geolocated by The National shows a huge explosion at a named warehouse located north of Shahin Shahr in Isfahan. Centrifuges the target The IAEA has confirmed Israel hit the Natanz's underground centrifuge halls and two other centrifuge production factories. But what is the significance, and why are centrifuges an essential component of nuclear energy? On June 9, the Institute for Science and International Security published a study summarising information in the IAEA's quarterly report. The document stated that as of May 17, Iran had more than 14,500 advanced centrifuges installed at the Natanz and Fordow fuel enrichment plants. It said Iran was undertaking 'the near-final step' of breaking out from the restrictions of the 2015 nuclear agreement, converting its 20 per cent stock of enriched uranium into 60 per cent enriched uranium at a greatly expanded rate. Although Israel appears to have successfully degraded Iran's ability to rapidly scale up a nuclear breakout or missile use in the short term, such losses do not appear irrecoverable. Iran has demonstrated resilience and redundancy over the decades across its nuclear infrastructure, often dispersing key assets and maintaining deep underground factories specifically to survive such attacks. The IAEA has called for calm and access to inspect affected sites. For now, satellite imagery remains one of the few reliable ways to track the scale and precision of these strikes. The picture that's emerging is clear: Israel has delivered a major tactical blow to Iran's infrastructure, but the long-term consequences, both strategic and environmental, are not yet known.