Buy or Sell MetLife Stock Ahead of Earnings?

Forbes

04-08-2025

MetLife (NYSE:MET) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. Earnings are expected to reach approximately $2.16 per share, slightly lower than the previous year, according to consensus estimates, while revenues are projected to be around $18.50 billion, which is a decline of about 1% year-over-year. During the last quarter, the firm experienced increased life underwriting margins, growth in volume, and variable investment income, though these were partially offset by negative impacts from foreign currency and lower recurring interest margins. Similar trends may influence Q2 results, considering the continued weakness of the dollar. The company has a current market capitalization of $53 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months totaled $72 billion, with net income reported at $4.5 billion. While the outcome will greatly depend on how the results compare to consensus and expectations, being aware of historical trends might sway the odds in your favor if you are a trader focused on events.
There are two approaches to accomplish this: comprehend the historical probabilities and position yourself before the earnings announcement, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. Therefore, if you are looking for upside with less volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivering returns greater than 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
MetLife's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A strategy with comparatively lower risk (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the necessary trade. For example, if the correlation between 1D and 5D is the highest, a trader may choose to go "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact the stock's reaction following earnings. Indeed, the price movement may start before the earnings announcement. Here is some historical data regarding the previous post-earnings performance of MetLife stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings shortly before MetLife. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), yielding strong returns for investors. In addition, if you desire upside with a more stable experience than an individual stock such as MetLife, think about the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since its inception.