Tropical Storm Erin Spaghetti Models as Storm Path Shifts
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Tropical Storm Erin's path has changed slightly, prompting concern that the storm is heading toward the United States even as National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts said it's still too soon to tell what impacts, if any, Erin will cause.
Why It Matters
Meteorologists have been tracking Tropical Storm Erin, which originated as a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa, for days. The tropical storm formed late Monday morning.
Originally, forecast models showed the storm making a northward turn away from the U.S. Now, models have shifted south, increasing the chances that Erin, which is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend, will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast.
What To Know
Most spaghetti models, or computer models that illustrate potential storm paths, still show the storm taking a northward turn. However, the storm's path has shifted south, meaning some of its impacts could reach land, including the U.S.
"I still think the most likely scenario is a track somewhere between the Outer Banks [of North Carolina] and Bermuda," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek. "However, due to the fact that this storm has been moving a little further south and west, that can certainly increase the chance it can come closer to the United States."
Erin could become a major hurricane, a designation that occurs when a storm's wind speeds reach 111 mph or higher, classified as Category 3. Should it strengthen as meteorologists expect, Erin could become not only the first hurricane but also the first major hurricane of the season.
An updated forecast map for Tropical Storm Erin.
An updated forecast map for Tropical Storm Erin.
National Hurricane Center
The timeline for Erin's strengthening also has changed. Current forecasts anticipate Erin becoming a hurricane by Thursday evening and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. Previously, experts believed it would become a hurricane on Wednesday and a major hurricane on Saturday.
On Tuesday, meteorologist Matt Velocity warned that the longer it takes the storm to intensify, the further west it will travel.
"TROPICAL STORM ERIN is continuing to trend west, increasing chances of some sort of US impact," Velocity posted on X. "The longer Erin struggles to intensify, the further west it will travel."
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm of the season and the second to form this month, following Tropical Storm Dexter, which fizzled out over the ocean in the first week of August.
Meteorologists have issued repeated warnings this summer that the Atlantic hurricane season has not yet reached its peak, which typically happens around mid-September.
"As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place," the NHC said in a key message about Erin.
What People Are Saying
The National Hurricane Center, in a key message about Tropical Storm Erin: "Although it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin might bring to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the risk has increased for Erin to move closer to these islands over the weekends. Interests there should monitor the progress of this storm."
The message added: "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will continue tracking the storm as it develops. No coastal hazards have been issued, but people in the affected areas should follow local weather guidance.
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New York Post
2 hours ago
- New York Post
Tropical Storm Erin set to become first hurricane of the season as US Virgin Islands prepare for the worst
Preparations for potential impacts from Tropical Storm Erin are underway in the U.S. Virgin Islands as the system continues to become better organized and remains on track to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Officials in the U.S. Virgin Islands said territory-wide sandbag distribution for hurricane season was set to begin in a matter of days, but with Tropical Storm Erin spinning across the Atlantic Ocean, those plans were accelerated. 'Due to the projected impact of Tropical Storm Erin on the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA), in partnership with the Virgin Islands Fire and Emergency Services, the Department of Public Works, the Office of ADA Coordinator, and the Department of Human Services, has accelerated the territory-wide sandbag distribution program,' officials said in a Facebook post. 'While the exact impact of Tropical Storm Erin remains uncertain at this time, VITEMA is taking proactive measures to ensure all residents have access to critical hurricane preparedness resources before the storm's arrival.' Officials said this accelerated distribution represents the only sandbag distribution for the 2025 hurricane season. 6 This image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025. AP 'We strongly encourage all residents to take advantage of this opportunity to protect their homes and property,' officials said. Hurricane Hunters are set to fly into Tropical Storm Erin on Thursday to try and get a better understanding of the organizing storm, which forecasters say could become a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) over the weekend. This comes after the storm, which was first dubbed Invest 97L, caused several deaths in the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. 6 The US Virgin Islands are accelerating their sandbag distribution because of Tropical Storm Erin. Mario Hoesel – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Erin had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and strengthening was set to begin later on Wednesday afternoon or on Wednesday night. It's expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical Storm Erin is located more than 1,300 miles to the east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving off to the west at 17 mph. 6 Major strengthening is likely with Tropical Storm Erin. FOX Weather The NHC said that general motion was expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion starting on Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On that track, the NHC said the center of Tropical Storm Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. 'Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin,' the NHC said. 6 Jack Beven, Senior Hurricane Specialist, tracks Tropical Storm Erin on August 13, 2025 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Getty Images Swells generated by Tropical Storm Erin are expected to begin impacting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. Those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at local beaches. At least 7 dead in Cabo Verde islands Before becoming Tropical Storm Erin, the system brought torrential rain and thunderstorms to the Cabo Verde, or Cape Verde, islands when it was Invest 97L. 6 Swells generated by Tropical Storm Erin are expected to begin impacting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. John – Local officials said at least seven people, including children, were killed. 'The Ministry of Education expresses its deepest sorrow for the tragic loss of seven lives, including four children, on the island of São Vincent,' the Ministry of Education said in a translated Facebook post. The Ministry went on to say 'in this time of mourning and dismay, the pain of the bereaved families is the pain of the entire nation.' 6 Lisa Bucci, Hurricane Specialist, works near screens showing Tropical Storm Erin as they continue to track its progress on August 13, 2025 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Getty Images Government officials said they declared two days of national mourning due to the loss of human lives and significant material damage caused by the passage of the system. National Hurricane Center monitoring two other areas across the basin Forecasters at the NHC have also highlighted a disturbance in the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea for development, but chances for further organization remain low. The disturbance in the North Atlantic is heading away from the U.S. while the disturbance in parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf will see a significant amount of land interaction, limiting its organization. Over the weekend, a few scattered showers may make it into the Brownsville, Texas region, but accumulations are expected to remain below one inch.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Is Erin coming to Tallahassee area or Florida? Tracking what may become a Cat. 3 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erin continues to move quickly to the west and is expected to begin strengthening today, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are now encouraging residents in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands to closely monitor Erin, which is expected to begin strengthening today. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Erin is expected to become a hurricane late Thursday, Aug. 14 or early Friday, Aug. 15 and strengthen into a major hurricane within the next 96 hours. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. While a curve back out to sea is widely expected and forecast in models, the full impact Erin could have on Florida and the U.S. remains uncertain as of Wednesday morning but officials also encourage residents to monitor the storm. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the National Hurricane Center. As for the Gulf Coast of North Florida, the National Weather Service in Tallahassee said "it's too early to determine what, if any, impacts to the Tri-State region." "As the Hurricane Season peak approaches, ensure you're prepared for any threats," they wrote on X. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also weighed in: "Models for Hurricane Erin currently have it turning north and staying far away from Florida. We continue to monitor for any shifts." Forecasters reminded everyone that the forecast cone has an average error of 150 to 215 statute miles in the days 4 and 5 forecast. It's also important to remember that the cone represents where the center of the storm could be. The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22. The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane typically does not occur until Sept. 1, according to AccuWeather. Tropical Storm Erin update, path Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph Movement: west at 20 mph Pressure: 1,004 mb Next advisory: 11 a.m. ET When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? The National Hurricane Center predicted Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday Aug. 14 or early Friday. Erin is expected to continue strengthening, becoming a major hurricane with winds estimated at 115 mph by early Sunday morning. Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going? Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Is there a hurricane coming to Florida? No tropical storm — or hurricane — watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether Erin will impact the U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and Florida Division of Emergency Management. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the Hurricane Center said. How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Erin is expected to begin strengthening today, Aug. 13 and become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday and a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, Aug. 17 as it moves out of an area with dry area and "marginal" sea surface temperatures. Erin is expected to continue moving west across the Atlantic but is expected to turn to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a "ridge" to its north. Exactly where that turn takes place remains uncertain. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the National Hurricane Center said. "Users are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 150-215 statute miles at days four and five, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible." "At the very least, building seas will pose threats for small craft and larger ocean-going vessels over the western Atlantic. Increasing surf and rip currents will pose dangers for swimmers over much of the U.S. Atlantic coast and Bermuda," AccuWeather forecasters said. "The amount of wind and rain that occurs over the northeastern Caribbean islands and the Bahamas will depend on Erin's size, intensity and its ability to pull moisture northward from the Caribbean." "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the United States next week." The scenarios, according to AccuWeather are: "If the Bermuda High remains fairly round or yields to the approaching cool front and jet stream dip, Erin is likely to turn to the north before reaching the U.S. "If the Bermuda High extends well to the west, it could block the potential major hurricane's northward path. The result would be a potential track very close to or onshore in the U.S., probably somewhere from the Carolinas north." Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. Erin is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 nautical miles (150-215 statute miles) at days four and five, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible. Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get? At 5 a.m.: 45 mph 12 hours: 50 mph 24 hours: 60 mph 36 hours: 65 mph 48 hours: 75 mph 60 hours: 85 mph 72 hours: 100 mph 96 hours: 115 mph 120 hours: 115 mph Will Tropical Storm Erin impact Florida? What other areas could be affected? It's still early to tell yet what impacts Tropical Storm Erin could have on Florida or the United States, although forecasters said rough surf and dangerous rip currents are possible along the east coast as Erin approaches. Officials warn residents should be prepared and closely monitor the storm that's expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in ... the east coast of the United States ... next week," the National Hurricane Center said at 5 a.m. Aug. 13. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions." Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past? Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Is Erin coming to Tallahassee, Florida area? Cat. 3 hurricane forecast
E&E News
3 hours ago
- E&E News
Tropical Storm Erin expected to become major hurricane by Sunday
Tropical Storm Erin is likely to strengthen into the first major Atlantic hurricane of 2025, with potential wind and storm surge impacts for the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands before shifting to a more northward path toward the Atlantic coast, forecasters said Wednesday. Forecasters say the likelihood of a landfall on the U.S. East Coast remains low, but cautioned residents of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and East Coast states to make sure preparation plans are in order. In its latest update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm 'continues to have a ragged overall appearance,' but expectations are for significant intensification by the end of the week, reaching hurricane status by Friday and major hurricane status by Sunday with winds between 111 and 129 miles per hour. Advertisement The storm is not expected to impact the northern Gulf of Mexico, which President Donald Trump renamed the Gulf of America.
