4 days ago
Tropical Storm Erin Spaghetti Models as Storm Path Shifts
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Tropical Storm Erin's path has changed slightly, prompting concern that the storm is heading toward the United States even as National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts said it's still too soon to tell what impacts, if any, Erin will cause.
Why It Matters
Meteorologists have been tracking Tropical Storm Erin, which originated as a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa, for days. The tropical storm formed late Monday morning.
Originally, forecast models showed the storm making a northward turn away from the U.S. Now, models have shifted south, increasing the chances that Erin, which is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend, will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast.
What To Know
Most spaghetti models, or computer models that illustrate potential storm paths, still show the storm taking a northward turn. However, the storm's path has shifted south, meaning some of its impacts could reach land, including the U.S.
"I still think the most likely scenario is a track somewhere between the Outer Banks [of North Carolina] and Bermuda," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek. "However, due to the fact that this storm has been moving a little further south and west, that can certainly increase the chance it can come closer to the United States."
Erin could become a major hurricane, a designation that occurs when a storm's wind speeds reach 111 mph or higher, classified as Category 3. Should it strengthen as meteorologists expect, Erin could become not only the first hurricane but also the first major hurricane of the season.
An updated forecast map for Tropical Storm Erin.
An updated forecast map for Tropical Storm Erin.
National Hurricane Center
The timeline for Erin's strengthening also has changed. Current forecasts anticipate Erin becoming a hurricane by Thursday evening and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. Previously, experts believed it would become a hurricane on Wednesday and a major hurricane on Saturday.
On Tuesday, meteorologist Matt Velocity warned that the longer it takes the storm to intensify, the further west it will travel.
"TROPICAL STORM ERIN is continuing to trend west, increasing chances of some sort of US impact," Velocity posted on X. "The longer Erin struggles to intensify, the further west it will travel."
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm of the season and the second to form this month, following Tropical Storm Dexter, which fizzled out over the ocean in the first week of August.
Meteorologists have issued repeated warnings this summer that the Atlantic hurricane season has not yet reached its peak, which typically happens around mid-September.
"As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place," the NHC said in a key message about Erin.
What People Are Saying
The National Hurricane Center, in a key message about Tropical Storm Erin: "Although it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin might bring to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the risk has increased for Erin to move closer to these islands over the weekends. Interests there should monitor the progress of this storm."
The message added: "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will continue tracking the storm as it develops. No coastal hazards have been issued, but people in the affected areas should follow local weather guidance.
