Hurricane Erin tracker: Tropical storm warning issued for N.C. as 'life-threatening' rip currents forecast up the East Coast — see the latest path
Tropical storm warnings and storm surge warnings have been issued for parts of the Outer Banks in North Carolina and have extended north as Hurricane Erin is expected to bring 'life-threatening' surf and rip currents along much of the East Coast this week, forecasters say.
Officials in Dare County, N.C., have already declared a state of emergency and ordered the evacuation of Hatteras Island, where tropical storm conditions and the possibility of life-threatening inundation of water from Erin are expected to have an impact on the barrier islands.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the rough surf conditions from the storm could affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and beaches up and down the East Coast during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should heed advice from lifeguards and local authorities, the hurricane center said.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last week, officially reaching hurricane status on Friday. It is the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
Where is Hurricane Erin now, and what is its path?
As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday:
Erin was located 615 miles southwest of Bermuda and about 615 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.
It is moving north-northwest at 10 mph.
According to the NHC's latest advisory, Erin is expected to increase in forward speed to the north-northwest through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Thursday.
The computer models show that the center of the storm is expected to pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and move between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
Watches and warnings
As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, these are the advisories in place, according to the NHC:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for:
Beaufort Inlet, N.C. to Duck, N.C., including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for:
Bermuda
North of Duck, N.C. to Chincoteague, Va.
A storm surge warning is in effect for:
Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C.
What those watches and warnings mean
A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Outer Banks starting late Wednesday, while tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of Duck, N.C. to Cape Charles Light and in Bermuda starting Thursday.
Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks Wednesday night into Thursday, with the potential for 1 to 2 inches.
Though Erin is not expected to make direct landfall, swells generated by the storm will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
'These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents,' the NHC said.
What are the chances Erin will intensify?
Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday and again on Monday before weakening. It is currently a Category 2 storm, just below a Category 3, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
"Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days," the NHC said.
But regardless of status, Erin remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Earlier this month, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 to 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
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