ECB's Kazimir says big unexpected economic shift needed for September rate cut
The ECB kept rates unchanged last week as widely expected and offered a moderately upbeat assessment on the bloc's economy, prompting investors to scale back their bets on further policy easing.
"When it comes to incoming data, I don't expect anything significant to happen that would force my hand to act as soon as September," Kazimir said in a blog post. "It would take something like clear signs of unravelling in the labour market for me to act."
This assessment aligns with comments from ECB sources that the bar for a cut in September is high after the bank has already halved rates to 2% since June 2024.
Sunday's EU trade deal with the US was clearly a positive since it reduces uncertainty for businesses, but the impact on prices, the ECB's chief focus, was still unclear.
"This (trade deal) can help to ease concerns and regain confidence," Kazimir said. "We now have more clarity, but we will need time to see to what extent this new environment will affect inflation."
Weighing in on a key debate among policymakers, Kazimir said he did not see a risk that inflation would now undershoot the ECB's 2% target, much like it did in the pre-pandemic decade.
Price growth is seen dipping below 2% next year and only rebounding in 2027, raising worries among some governors that once inflation is well below 2%, expectations also fall and could perpetuate weak price growth.
"I see no looming spectre of a sustained undershooting of inflation," Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, said. "The expected dips below target in the coming year should be temporary."
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Irish Independent
an hour ago
- Irish Independent
Trump's broad tariffs are now officially in effect
LATEST: Trump's broad tariffs are now officially in effect President Donald Trump has begun levying higher import taxes on dozens of countries, just as the economic fallout of his months-long tariff threats has begun to create visible damage for the US economy. Just after midnight, goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union (EU) became subject to tariff rates of 10pc or higher. Products from the European Union, Japan and South Korea are taxed at 15pc, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh are taxed at 20pc. Mr Trump also expects the EU, Japan and South Korea to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the US. 'I think the growth is going to be unprecedented,' Mr Trump said on Wednesday afternoon. He added that the US was 'taking in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs', but he could not provide a specific figure for revenues because 'we don't even know what the final number is' regarding tariff rates. Despite the uncertainty, the Trump White House is confident that the onset of his broad tariffs will provide clarity about the path of the world's largest economy. Now that companies understand the direction the US is headed, the administration believes it can ramp up new investments and jump-start hiring in ways that can rebalance the US economy as a manufacturing power. But so far, there are signs of self-inflicted wounds to America as companies and consumers alike brace for the impact of new taxes. What the data has shown is a US economy that changed in April with Mr Trump's initial rollout of tariffs, an event that led to market drama, a negotiating period and Mr Trump's ultimate decision to start his universal tariffs on Thursday. After April, economic reports show that hiring began to stall, inflationary pressures crept upward and home values in key markets started to decline, said John Silvia, chief executive of Dynamic Economic Strategy. 'A less productive economy requires fewer workers,' Mr Silvia said in an analysis note. 'But there is more, the higher tariff prices lower workers' real wages. The economy has become less productive, and firms cannot pay the same real wages as before. Actions have consequences.' Even then, the ultimate transformations of the tariffs are unknown and could play out over months, if not years. Many economists say the risk is that the American economy is steadily eroded rather than collapsing instantly. 'We all want it to be made for television where it's this explosion – it's not like that,' said Brad Jensen, a professor at Georgetown University. 'It's going to be fine sand in the gears and slow things down.' Mr Trump has promoted the tariffs as a way to reduce the persistent trade deficit. But importers sought to avoid the taxes by importing more goods before the taxes went into effect. As a result, the 582.7 billion dollar trade imbalance for the first half of the year was 38pc higher than in 2024. Total construction spending has dropped 2.9pc over the past year. The lead-up to Thursday fit the slapdash nature of Mr Trump's tariffs, which have been variously rolled out, walked back, delayed, increased, imposed by letter and frantically renegotiated. The process has been so muddled that officials for key trade partners were unclear at the start of the week whether the tariffs would begin on Thursday or Friday. The language of the July 31 order to delay the start of tariffs from August 1 said the higher tax rates would start in seven days. On Wednesday morning, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, was asked if the new tariffs began at midnight on Thursday, and he said reporters should check with the US Trade Representative's Office. Mr Trump on Wednesday announced additional 25pc tariffs to be imposed on India for its buying of Russian oil, bringing its total import taxes to 50pc. A top body of Indian exporters said on Thursday that the latest US tariffs will impact nearly 55pc of the country's outbound shipments to America and force exporters to lose their long-standing clients. 'Absorbing this sudden cost escalation is simply not viable. Margins are already thin,' SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said. Import taxes are still coming on pharmaceutical drugs and Mr Trump announced 100pc tariffs on computer chips. That could leave the US economy in a place of suspended animation as it awaits the impact. The president's use of a 1977 law to declare an economic emergency to impose the tariffs is also under challenge. The impending ruling from last week's hearing before a US appeals court could cause Mr Trump to find other legal justifications if judges say he exceeded his authority. Even people who worked with Mr Trump during his first term are sceptical that things will go smoothly for the economy, such as Paul Ryan, the former Republican House of Representatives speaker, who has emerged as a Trump critic. 'There's no sort of rationale for this other than the president wanting to raise tariffs based upon his whims, his opinions,' Mr Ryan told CNBC on Wednesday. 'I think choppy waters are ahead because I think they're going to have some legal challenges.' Still, the stock market has been solid during the recent tariff drama, with the S&P 500 index climbing more than 25pc from its April low. The market's rebound and the income tax cuts in Mr Trump's tax and spending measures signed into law on July 4 have given the White House confidence that economic growth is bound to accelerate in the coming months. As of now, Mr Trump still foresees an economic boom while the rest of the world and American voters wait nervously. 'There's one person who can afford to be cavalier about the uncertainty that he's creating, and that's Donald Trump,' said Rachel West, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation who worked in the Biden White House on labour policy. 'The rest of Americans are already paying the price for that uncertainty.' Josh Boak, Press Association
Irish Examiner
2 hours ago
- Irish Examiner
Trump's broad tariffs go into effect
President Donald Trump was set to officially begin levying higher import taxes on dozens of countries on Thursday, just as the economic fallout of his months-long tariff threats has begun to create visible damage for the US economy. The White House said that starting just after midnight, goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union (EU) would face tariff rates of 10% or higher. Products from the EU, Japan and South Korea will be taxed at 15%, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh will be taxed at 20%. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office in Washington (Alex Brandon/AP) For places such as the EU, Japan and South Korea, Mr Trump also expects them to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the US. 'I think the growth is going to be unprecedented,' Mr Trump said on Wednesday afternoon. He added that the US was 'taking in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs', but he could not provide a specific figure for revenues because 'we don't even know what the final number is' regarding tariff rates. Despite the uncertainty, the Trump White House is confident that the onset of his broad tariffs will provide clarity about the path of the world's largest economy. Now that companies understand the direction the US is headed, the administration believes it can ramp up new investments and jump-start hiring in ways that can rebalance the US economy as a manufacturing power. But so far, there are signs of self-inflicted wounds to America as companies and consumers alike brace for the impact of new taxes. What the data has shown is a US economy that changed in April with Mr Trump's initial rollout of tariffs, an event that led to market drama, a negotiating period and Mr Trump's ultimate decision to start his universal tariffs on Thursday. A customer shops in a grain isle at New India Bazar in Fremont, California, where most merchandise is imported from India and Canada (Noah Berger/AP) After April, economic reports show that hiring began to stall, inflationary pressures crept upward and home values in key markets started to decline, said John Silvia, chief executive of Dynamic Economic Strategy. 'A less productive economy requires fewer workers,' Mr Silvia said in an analysis note. 'But there is more, the higher tariff prices lower workers' real wages. The economy has become less productive, and firms cannot pay the same real wages as before. Actions have consequences.' Even then, the ultimate transformations of the tariffs are unknown and could play out over months, if not years. Many economists say the risk is that the American economy is steadily eroded rather than collapsing instantly. 'We all want it to be made for television where it's this explosion – it's not like that,' said Brad Jensen, a professor at Georgetown University. 'It's going to be fine sand in the gears and slow things down.' The Statue of Liberty is seen near Port Liberty Terminals in New York (Frank Franklin II/AP) Mr Trump has promoted the tariffs as a way to reduce the persistent trade deficit. But importers sought to avoid the taxes by importing more goods before the taxes went into effect. As a result, the 582.7 billion dollar trade imbalance for the first half of the year was 38% higher than in 2024. Total construction spending has dropped 2.9% over the past year. The lead-up to Thursday fit the slapdash nature of Mr Trump's tariffs, which have been variously rolled out, walked back, delayed, increased, imposed by letter and frantically renegotiated. The process has been so muddled that officials for key trade partners were unclear at the start of the week whether the tariffs would begin on Thursday or Friday. An employee counts US dollar notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia (Tatan Syuflana/AP) The language of the July 31 order to delay the start of tariffs from August 1 said the higher tax rates would start in seven days. On Wednesday morning, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, was asked if the new tariffs began at midnight on Thursday, and he said reporters should check with the US Trade Representative's Office. Mr Trump on Wednesday announced additional 25% tariffs to be imposed on India for its buying of Russian oil, bringing its total import taxes to 50%. He has said that import taxes are still coming on pharmaceutical drugs and announced 100% tariffs on computer chips, meaning the US economy could remain in a place of suspended animation as it awaits the impact. The president's use of a 1977 law to declare an economic emergency to impose the tariffs is also under challenge. The impending ruling from last week's hearing before a US appeals court could cause Mr Trump to find other legal justifications if judges say he exceeded his authority. Even people who worked with Mr Trump during his first term are sceptical that things will go smoothly for the economy, such as Paul Ryan, the former Republican House of Representatives speaker, who has emerged as a Trump critic. Tropical spices are displayed for sale at a Presidente Supermarket in North Miami, Florida (Marta Lavandier/AP) 'There's no sort of rationale for this other than the president wanting to raise tariffs based upon his whims, his opinions,' Mr Ryan told CNBC on Wednesday. 'I think choppy waters are ahead because I think they're going to have some legal challenges.' Still, the stock market has been solid during the recent tariff drama, with the S&P 500 index climbing more than 25% from its April low. The market's rebound and the income tax cuts in Mr Trump's tax and spending measures signed into law on July 4 have given the White House confidence that economic growth is bound to accelerate in the coming months. As of now, Mr Trump still foresees an economic boom while the rest of the world and American voters wait nervously. 'There's one person who can afford to be cavalier about the uncertainty that he's creating, and that's Donald Trump,' said Rachel West, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation who worked in the Biden White House on labour policy. 'The rest of Americans are already paying the price for that uncertainty.'
Irish Independent
5 hours ago
- Irish Independent
The Irish Independent's View: Ireland must proceed with caution after Donald Trump's threat of increased pharma tariffs
'We'll be putting an initially small tariff on pharmaceuticals, but in one year – one-and-a-half years, maximum – it's going to go to 150pc and then it's going to go to 250pc because we want pharmaceuticals made in our country,' Mr Trump warned. In his second coming, the US president has honed his superpower for wreaking economic havoc. Were he to write another book, it ought to be titled The Art of the Chaos. 'They [pharmaceutical companies] make a fortune with pharmaceuticals, and they make it in China and Ireland and everything else,' he said. The EU-US deal had already come in for severe criticism from countries including France and Germany for giving in too much and accepting higher tariffs. However, EU Commission officials defended it on the grounds that the agreement prevented an all-out trade war and also got Washington to roll back on a threat of pulling its security guarantees from Europe. The pact, signed by commission president Ursula von der Leyen, includes investment pledges and more purchases of US weapons and energy products. 'We chose the less bad option and we feel this is the better choice,' an EU official told the Financial Times. 'We're very clearly operating in a second-best world. Of course, America has its own problems, not least of which is the almost $1tn (€859bn) it must pay to service a national debt of $37tn. The Fiscal Advisory Council accused the Government of 'painting too rosy a picture' There is good reason why Ireland is the envy of Europe and a thorn in the side of the US president. Revenue figures have shown €156bn of corporate tax has flowed into the Exchequer in just 10 years. And we have just set a new record this year: according to the latest exchequer returns, tax receipts to the end of July came to €58bn. Earlier this summer, the Fiscal Advisory Council accused the Government of 'painting too rosy a picture' of future tax revenue in the context of framing a budget. It has also claimed that the Government has 'lost its anchor', with spending on a potentially unsustainable trajectory'. Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe is mindful of the risks and recognises that undue dependence on such eye-watering sums is hazardous. 'As I have said many times, we cannot assume these over-performances will continue indefinitely, particularly in the context of a deeply uncertain international trading environment,' he said. A cynic will tell you that he who remains calm while those around him panic probably doesn't know what's going on. The Coalition may not be hyperventilating just yet, at the threat of another transatlantic tariff thunderbolt, but a trimming of the sails and a checking of ambitions in terms of the budget must still inform their thinking.
