Fitch projects rupee to fall to Rs295 by mid-2026
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Fitch Ratings has projected a gradual depreciation of the Pakistani rupee in the coming months as the country's economic activity picks up, potentially adding pressure on the current account.
According to a Bloomberg report, Fitch expects the rupee to slide to Rs285 against the US dollar by June 2025 and further to Rs295 by the end of Pakistan's next fiscal year in June 2026.
This would translate to a 1.5% depreciation from the current interbank rate of Rs280.76 and a 5% overall decline over the next 14 months.
The forecast reflects Fitch's view that the State Bank of Pakistan will allow the rupee to weaken gradually to mitigate current account pressures as the economy gains momentum.
This comes as Pakistan posted a record $1.2 billion current account surplus in March 2025, a major turnaround from a $97 million deficit in February.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.86% — or Rs2.43/USD — during the first eight months of FY24-25, according to State Bank of Pakistan data. The local currency was trading at Rs280.77/USD on Tuesday, down from Rs278.34/USD on June 28, 2024.
The rupee had previously plunged to a historic low of Rs307.10/USD in September 2023 amid rampant dollar smuggling. A government crackdown on illegal currency trading helped the currency recover to around Rs277/USD in early 2024.
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