Commercial Vehicle sales expected to rebound by up to 5% in FY26: CareEdge Ratings
CareEdge Ratings
. The turnaround is likely to be supported by increased infrastructure activity, favourable monsoon forecasts, improved financing conditions, and fleet replacement demand.
The Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segment is projected to grow by 2–4 per cent, while Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCV s) are expected to see a stronger rebound of 4–6 per cent.
'The commercial vehicle industry is set for moderate growth, led by rising infrastructure spends, improved rural sentiment, and the easing of interest rates,' said Arti Roy, Associate Director, CareEdge Ratings. She added that factors such as road tax concessions under the scrappage policy and transition to electric buses will further boost demand, especially in the bus segment.
The Reserve Bank of India's 100 basis point cumulative repo rate cut between February and June 2025 is expected to ease financing costs in FY26, boosting affordability for buyers and encouraging demand. (One hundred basis points are equivalent to 1 per cent). States offering road tax concessions of 15–25 per cent under the
Vehicle Scrappage Policy
are also likely to support new vehicle sales.
M&HCV and LCV performance
In FY25,
M&HCV truck volumes
declined by 2.7 per cent, weighed down by election-related disruptions, delayed infrastructure projects, and high interest rates. In contrast, M&HCV bus volumes rose 21.6 per cent, driven by increased demand for public transport and government fleet renewals. Overall M&HCV volumes grew by a muted 1.2 per cent.
The LCV segment also faced headwinds, including weak rural demand, competition from electric cargo three-wheelers, and cautious financing for small fleet operators. While LCV passenger carriers grew 8 per cent, goods carriers declined by 1 per cent.
The sector will also navigate key regulatory changes in FY26–FY27, including the mandatory introduction of air-conditioned truck cabins from October 2025 and the rollout of TREM-V emission norms for non-road vehicles from April 2026. These changes may increase vehicle costs, potentially triggering a pre-buying rush in FY26.
Overall, CareEdge Ratings expects these combined factors to drive a gradual but sustained recovery in India's commercial vehicle industry in the year ahead.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
4 hours ago
- Time of India
Mahindra looks to acquire 350-acre land parcel in Igatpuri
MUMBAI: Mahindra & Mahindra has submitted a letter of interest to the Maharashtra government to acquire 350 acres of land in Igatpuri, Maharashtra, according to a top company official. The Mumbai-based automaker already has manufacturing plants in Nashik and Igatpuri. "We have submitted a letter of interest for 350 acres of land in Igatpuri, which is part of our ecosystem," Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Executive Director and CEO for auto and farm sectors Rajesh Jejurikar told reporters here. He stated that Nashik and Igatpuri plants could benefit from a feeder facility in the vicinity. "The land parcel could be used for multiple things, including setting up a supplier park and anything that we may need more for either Nashik or the Igatpuri plant," Jejurikar added. The company is at a preliminary stage and would have to go through the whole process of due diligence, and then land purchase needs a different level of approval, he noted. "We still have to go through the process of meeting all approvals, internal and regulatory, before we actually make a the whole process is not complete, but the expression of interest is accurate," Jejurikar said. Mahindra & Mahindra CEO, Automotive Division, Nalinikanth Gollagunta said the company is looking to expand production capacity of its Chakan-based manufacturing by around 2.4 lakh units in the first phase this year. The overall production capacity of the plant would go up to 7.5 to 7.6 lakh units per year after the expansion. "We are also exploring setting up greenfield locations to put out the production capacity beyond 2027," Gollagunta stated. Mahindra has plans to invest over Rs 27,000 crore in its automotive business between FY25 and FY27.
Scroll.in
6 hours ago
- Scroll.in
In charts: Increase in fake note seizures, rise in counterfeit Rs 200 notes
In five years to 2021, fake currency notes seized across India more than doubled, even as cases filed for such seizures fell 50%, suggesting an increase in volume per seizure. In 2022, the latest year for which data is available with the National Crime Records Bureau, Indian law enforcement agencies seized Rs 382 crore in 4.2 million fake currency notes. Compared to the previous year, this was seven times in volume and 19 times in value. But fewer counterfeit notes are making it to the banks, data from the Reserve Bank of India shows. In 2022, banks detected about 230,000 fake notes – roughly two fake notes for every million notes in circulation. In 2016, before the government took the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes out of circulation, seven notes per million were detected as fake in banks, as IndiaSpend reported that year. By contrast, National Crime Records Bureau data for the same year shows law enforcement seizing more than 4.2 million fake notes, equivalent to around 32 counterfeit notes per million. Overall, per million notes of specific denominations in circulation by the end of March 2025, banks detected about two fake notes of Rs 100 and Rs 500 each, and four counterfeit Rs 200 notes. In May 2023, Rs 2,000 notes were withdrawn from circulation although they continue to be legal tender. Correspondingly, the share of Rs 2,000 notes in fake notes detected by banks has since fallen – from a peak of 22,000 notes in 2018-'19 to 3,508 in 2024-'25. Reserve Bank statistics show that Rs 2,000 notes currently account for Rs 6,017 crore of cash in circulation. Among states, Gujarat ranked at the top, while states such as West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, which topped seizures earlier, have seen lower numbers. Karnataka and Bihar have seen increases in seizures. 'Despite the extent of counterfeiting being apparently small, it poses serious threats to the currency and financial system,' a 2013 working paper of the Reserve Bank noted, before detailing various measures taken by the government and the central bank to respond to the threat. It is 'necessary to examine the level of counterfeiting on a regular basis', it added. In five charts, we examine recent trends in counterfeit currency in India and what the data reveal about how fake notes are evolving. Fake note value surges National Crime Records Bureau data compiled by Dataful show that counterfeit currency seizures have risen in recent years. Authorities seized, as we said, over 4.2 million fake notes worth Rs 382 crore in 2022, compared to about 356,000 notes worth Rs 28 crore in 2017 – one year after the government took 94% of the currency out of circulation by scrapping the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes. This is 12 times the volume and 13 times the value of notes seized. Reserve Bank data, which tracks counterfeit notes detected in banks, shows the opposite trend. Detections have fallen from 762,000 notes in 2016‑'17 to 217,000 in 2024‑'25, Reserve Bank of India data collated by Dataful shows. New fake note hotspots Delhi had the highest fake note seizures between 2016 and 2019. Maharashtra saw the highest in 2020. But Gujarat surpassed all states with over 3 million fake notes in 2022 alone. Karnataka and Bihar have seen a rise in seizures: In 2022, Karnataka reported over 450,000 seized notes across all denominations, while Bihar recorded more than 270,000 notes. West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, which once saw higher numbers, have reported fewer cases in recent years. More notes seized, few cases According to the National Crime Records Bureau data, cases registered for counterfeit currency have dropped over the last decade. In 2015, authorities recorded 1,662 cases involving fake currency notes. By 2021, this had fallen to 688 cases, a decline of about 60%. Fake currency notes seized across India more than doubled during this period, suggesting, as we said, a higher volume of notes seized per case. Rs 200 counterfeits While fake Rs 500 notes remain the highest denomination detected in banks, RBI data show a steady increase in counterfeit Rs 200 notes since introduction in 2017. From 79 fake notes in 2017-'18, the number detected in banks rose to 32,660 in 2024-'25. Vijay Jadhav is a journalist at IndiaSpend. He holds a postgraduate degree in journalism from the Department of Communication and Journalism, Savitribai Phule Pune University.
News18
7 hours ago
- News18
TTP-Army Confrontation Along CPEC Routes Highlights Pakistan's Dual Crisis
Presence of TTP militants has turned this key economic corridor into a battleground, forcing Pakistan to allocate troops away from its conventional fronts to guard CPEC projects An ongoing confrontation between the Pakistan army and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters on the crucial CPEC Islamabad–DI Khan (M-14) route highlights Pakistan's dual crisis of internal militancy and over-dependence on China. The presence of TTP militants has turned this key economic corridor into a battleground, forcing Pakistan to allocate troops away from its conventional fronts in order to protect CPEC projects. News18 has accessed exclusive videos showing TTP militants operating and dancing with weapons in the key tribal belts through which the CPEC route passes, a clear sign of their growing confidence and operational control in these areas. This resurgence has been fuelled by a safe haven and ideological guidance provided by al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan, which TTP cadres are allegedly utilising for sanctuary, logistics, and training. Pakistan's strategic vulnerability has been exposed by the TTP's ability to operate with impunity from within Afghan territory, a situation exacerbated by the Afghan Taliban's refusal to act against the group. This has severely strained Pakistan-Afghan relations and limited Islamabad's options for a decisive military response. Beyond the military confrontation, the TTP is also actively engaging in a campaign of economic warfare. Reports indicate that the group is extorting money from China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) contractors, demanding a 5% 'tax" and threatening workers, machinery, and construction sites. This has added a layer of financial pressure and security risk to the already complex projects. For China, the security situation is a growing concern. The CPEC projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are high-value targets, and a number of attacks on Chinese engineers, including the deadly Dasu hydropower project incident, have prompted China to express repeated concern. Sources indicate that China's security stake in the project is rising, leading it to deploy private security personnel, as a full dependence on the Pakistan army for protection is deemed too risky. For Pakistan, losing operational control in these vital tribal belts has exposed its strategic vulnerability and underscored the fact that its counter-terrorism operations remain incomplete. view comments First Published: Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
