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Hans India
07-07-2025
- Automotive
- Hans India
India's commercial vehicle sales projected to see 2-5 pc growth in FY26
New Delhi: Commercial Vehicle (CV) wholesale volumes in India are expected to recover by around 2–5 per cent in FY26 after registering a subdued growth in the past two financial years, a report said on Monday. The medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment is projected to grow by 4–6 per cent in the current financial year, while light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment is expected to grow by 2–4 per cent in the same period, a CareEdge Ratings report showed. 'The commercial vehicle (CV) industry is expected to experience moderate growth, with overall sales volume likely to improve by around 2-5 per cent YoY in FY26,' said Arti Roy, Associate Director, CareEdge Ratings. The recovery will be driven by increased infrastructure activity, improved rural sentiment on the back of normal monsoon forecast, more attractive vehicle financing due to recent interest rate cuts, and ongoing fleet replacement — particularly in the bus segment — spurred by ageing vehicles, road tax concessions available for new vehicles under the scrappage policy for older vehicles and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), Roy explained. Muted growth in FY25 was due to a slowdown in demand in both MHCV and LCV segments. Despite the low demand, MHCV volumes saw a modest increase of 1.2 per cent, the report stated, whereas LCV volumes declined by 0.3 per cent. MHCV volumes witnessed subdued growth in FY25, following an extended monsoon which had delayed construction activities. Increased competition from the electric cargo three-wheeler market and cautious financing sentiment among small fleet operators also had an effect on the LCV segment. 'The Indian CV industry had witnessed its highest sales volume in FY19, and after being adversely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, the industry appeared to be on track to surpass the all-time high on the back of significant growth in sales volumes in FY22 and FY23," said Hardik Shah, Director, CareEdge Ratings. Buses, which make up about 20 per cent of all MHCV, showed a robust growth trajectory within the MHCV segment, increasing by 21.6 per cent in FY25 due to the ongoing shift to electric buses, government fleet replacement programmes, and growing demand for public transportation, according to the report.
Time of India
07-07-2025
- Automotive
- Time of India
Commercial Vehicle sales expected to rebound by up to 5% in FY26: CareEdge Ratings
After two years of subdued performance, India's commercial vehicle (CV) industry is poised for a modest recovery in FY26, with overall wholesale volumes expected to grow by 2–5 per cent, according to CareEdge Ratings . The turnaround is likely to be supported by increased infrastructure activity, favourable monsoon forecasts, improved financing conditions, and fleet replacement demand. The Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segment is projected to grow by 2–4 per cent, while Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCV s) are expected to see a stronger rebound of 4–6 per cent. 'The commercial vehicle industry is set for moderate growth, led by rising infrastructure spends, improved rural sentiment, and the easing of interest rates,' said Arti Roy, Associate Director, CareEdge Ratings. She added that factors such as road tax concessions under the scrappage policy and transition to electric buses will further boost demand, especially in the bus segment. The Reserve Bank of India's 100 basis point cumulative repo rate cut between February and June 2025 is expected to ease financing costs in FY26, boosting affordability for buyers and encouraging demand. (One hundred basis points are equivalent to 1 per cent). States offering road tax concessions of 15–25 per cent under the Vehicle Scrappage Policy are also likely to support new vehicle sales. M&HCV and LCV performance In FY25, M&HCV truck volumes declined by 2.7 per cent, weighed down by election-related disruptions, delayed infrastructure projects, and high interest rates. In contrast, M&HCV bus volumes rose 21.6 per cent, driven by increased demand for public transport and government fleet renewals. Overall M&HCV volumes grew by a muted 1.2 per cent. The LCV segment also faced headwinds, including weak rural demand, competition from electric cargo three-wheelers, and cautious financing for small fleet operators. While LCV passenger carriers grew 8 per cent, goods carriers declined by 1 per cent. The sector will also navigate key regulatory changes in FY26–FY27, including the mandatory introduction of air-conditioned truck cabins from October 2025 and the rollout of TREM-V emission norms for non-road vehicles from April 2026. These changes may increase vehicle costs, potentially triggering a pre-buying rush in FY26. Overall, CareEdge Ratings expects these combined factors to drive a gradual but sustained recovery in India's commercial vehicle industry in the year ahead.
Entrepreneur
07-07-2025
- Automotive
- Entrepreneur
Commercial Vehicle Sales Volume to See Moderate Growth in FY26: CareEdge Ratings
The report said that it expects the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segment to grow by 2-4 per cent in FY26, while the Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) segment is projected to grow by 4-6 per cent during the same period. You're reading Entrepreneur India, an international franchise of Entrepreneur Media. After two consecutive years of subdued growth, Commercial Vehicle (CV) wholesale volumes are expected to recover by around 2-5 per cent in FY26, according to CareEdge Ratings. The report said that it expects the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segment to grow by 2-4 per cent in FY26, while the Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) segment is projected to grow by 4-6 per cent during the same period. Arti Roy, Associate Director, CareEdge Ratings, said, "The commercial vehicle (CV) industry is expected to experience moderate growth, with overall sales volume likely to improve by around 2-5 per cent y-o-y in FY26. The recovery will be driven by increased infrastructure activity, improved rural sentiment on the back of normal monsoon forecast, more attractive vehicle financing due to recent interest rate cuts, and ongoing fleet replacement—particularly in the bus segment—spurred by ageing vehicles, road tax concessions available for new vehicles under the scrappage policy for older vehicles and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs)." CareEdge Ratings also noted that muted growth in FY25 was largely attributed to a slowdown in demand across both the Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) and Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segments, wherein MHCV volumes saw a modest increase of 1.2 per cent. In comparison, LCV volumes declined by 0.3 per cent. MHCV volumes had witnessed subdued growth in FY25 due to lower government spending on infrastructure, given the general elections last year and an extended monsoon delaying/disrupting construction work. The LCV segment was also impacted by increased competition from the electric cargo three-wheeler segment and a cautious financing sentiment among small fleet operators. Hardik Shah, Director, CareEdge Ratings, said that the Indian CV industry had witnessed its highest sales volume in FY19, and after being adversely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, the industry appeared to be on track to surpass the all-time high on the back of significant growth in sales volumes in FY22 and FY23. "However, it experienced a cyclical decline in FY24 and a largely flat volume in FY25 due to a multitude of factors, including higher channel inventory, a slowdown in infrastructure projects amid the general elections, the impact of the transition to BS-VI norms, rising vehicle costs, and high interest rates. Looking ahead, the sales volume is expected to grow marginally in FY26 with many of the issues behind us," said Shah. The report also noted that in FY25, the Indian commercial vehicle (CV) industry faced a challenging environment marked by election-related disruptions, a slowdown in infrastructure spending, and elevated interest rates. Within the MHCV segment, buses (which constitute ~20 per cent of the total MHCV) exhibited a strong growth trajectory, registering a 21.6 per cent increase in FY25, driven by rising demand for public transport, government fleet replacement initiatives, and the ongoing transition to electric buses. In contrast, MHCV trucks (which constitute ~80 per cent of MHCV) recorded a decline of 2.7 per cent, primarily due to subdued freight activity, delayed infrastructure projects during the election period, and high interest rates. After experiencing marginal volume degrowth of 1 per cent and 3 per cent in FY24 and FY25, the MHCV truck segment is expected to recover in FY26. This rebound will be supported by increased infrastructure activity in the country, the replacement of aged vehicles, and cumulative repo rate cuts of 100 bps in CY25 until June 2025, which is likely to boost vehicle financing. Additionally, rising volumes in the bus segment, driven by ongoing fleet replacement spurred by ageing vehicles, will further contribute to overall growth in MHCV sales. As a result of recovery in the trucks segment and continued growth in the bus segment, the MHCV segment is estimated to grow by 4-6 per cent during FY26.
