"Dangerous New Arms Race": Report Says China Added 100 New Warheads In 2 Years

NDTV

16-06-2025

Stockholm:
China's nuke arsenal up to 600 warheads now, estimates global think tank in annual inventory of world's weapons China has added 100 new warheads in 2023 and 2024, resulting in an increase of its nuclear arsenal to at least 600, according to an estimate by international security think tank SIPRI, which has warned about the emergence of a "dangerous new arms race."
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Monday launched its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. Key findings of the SIPRI Yearbook 2025 are that a dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging at a time when arms control regimes are severely weakened.
Nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed states--the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel--continued intensive nuclear modernization programmes in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions, the report said.
SIPRI Director Dan Smith warned about the challenges facing nuclear arms control and the prospects of a new nuclear arms race. "China is increasing its nuclear force steadily," Smith said, adding that the country could reach 1,000 warheads in seven or eight years.
Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12 241 warheads in January 2025, about 9614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 3912 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft and the rest were in central storage.
Around 2100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but China may now keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime, the SIPRI report said.
China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's, by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023. By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing around 350 new ICBM silos in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east. Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade. Yet even if China reaches the maximum projected number of 1500 warheads by 2035, that will still amount to only about one third of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles, summarised the SIPRI findings.
Since the end of the cold war, the gradual dismantlement of retired warheads by Russia and the US has normally outstripped the deployment of new warheads, resulting in an overall year-on-year decrease in the global inventory of nuclear weapons. This trend is likely to be reversed in the coming years, as the pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating.
India, the SIPRI report said is believed to have once again slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2024 and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system.
India's new 'canisterized' missiles, which can be transported with mated warheads, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads during peacetime, and possibly even multiple warheads on each missile, once they become operational. Pakistan also continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2024, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal might expand over the coming decade, according to the report by the international think tank.
The overall global nuclear inventory declined slightly to 12,241, the SIPRI said in its annual report, but it expressed concern that a "dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging."
North Korea was estimated to possess around 50 nuclear warheads as of January, the same as last year, and enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more, while Russia, which maintains the world's largest arsenal, holds 5,459.
The United States had 5,177 warheads. Together with Russia, the two nations accounted for about 90 per cent of the world's total, the report said, adding Israel has 90 warheads, although the country does not publicly acknowledge possessing them.
'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end," said Hans M Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
"Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements" Kristensen said.
SIPRI Director has warned of of the risks of a new nuclear arms race stating that the rapid development and application of an array of technologies in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, space assets, missile defence and quantum are radically redefining nuclear capabilities, deterrence and defence, and thus creating potential sources of instability.
Advances in missile defence and the oceanic deployment of quantum technology could ultimately have an impact on the vulnerability of key elements of states' nuclear arsenals, Smith noted.
The 56th edition of the SIPRI Yearbook analyses the continuing deterioration of global security over the past year. The wars in Ukraine, Gaza and elsewhere continued, exacerbating geopolitical divisions, besides their terrible human costs. Furthermore, the election of Donald Trump has created additional uncertainty--in Europe but also further afield--about the future direction of US foreign policy and the reliability of the US as an ally, a donor or an economic partner, it said.