Sen. Mark Green's retirement leaves open field for Republicans, a 'longshot' for Democrats
Tennessee is expected to see a special election later this year to replace U.S. Rep. Mark Green, R-Tennessee, and political experts say it could bring an open field of Republican candidates.
Regardless of who runs for Green's seat, experts say it would likely be a 'longshot' for any Democratic candidates as the district has a strong Republican hold.
Green on June 9 announced his resignation from the 7th Congressional District, just months after his reelection, to pursue an opportunity in the private sector. His district represents a swath of rural counties in middle and west Tennessee, as well as Montgomery County and parts of Davidson and Williamson counties.
'It is with a heavy heart that I announce my retirement from Congress," he said in a statement. "Recently, I was offered an opportunity in the private sector that was too exciting to pass up. As a result, today I notified the Speaker and the House of Representatives that I will resign from Congress as soon as the House votes once again on the reconciliation package."
His office didn't respond to an interview request; it's unclear what the private sector opportunity is.
Republicans hope to pass what President Donald Trump calls his 'big, beautiful bill' by July 4. If Green vacates his seat after voting on the bill, the state could see a special election this fall.
Under Tennessee law, Gov. Bill Lee must order a special election within 10 days of Green's resignation and set a primary election date within 55 to 60 days. The state would then set a subsequent general election within 100 to 107 days.
Green was reelected in November. His term expires in January 2027.
Green, a 60-year-old doctor and military veteran who lives in Clarksville, was first elected to his seat in 2018. He announced in February 2024 that he would not seek a fourth term, characterizing the country and Congress as nearly irreversibly broken.
He changed his mind after a flurry of calls from fellow Republicans and a personal appeal from Trump.
John Geer, a longtime political science professor at Vanderbilt University, speculated that Republicans, without any other strong candidates, asked Green to reconsider as he was set to fight off a challenge from former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry.
'They might have been worried a little bit that Megan Barry might win,' he said.
Geer said it's unclear who would run for his seat now, but any new candidate will be quickly bolstered by Lee and U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tennessee.
A typical low turnout for special elections could help a Democratic candidate, but Geer said it will depend on the political climate later this year, and the climate is changing fast.
'It's a longshot, but if the public is really angry and there is a Democrat that is viewed as a moderate, there could be a chance,' he said.
Kent Syler, a political science and public policy professor at Middle Tennessee State University, said Barry ran a spirited and well-funded campaign against Green but still had relatively low turnout at 38%.
Syler said Tennessee's 7th Congressional District contains an interesting mix of urban, suburban and rural voters, which poses a challenge for Democrats since they typically do better in urban areas.
'That dynamic will make it very difficult for a Democrat to take this seat,' he said. 'That being said, this race is going to be far more about Donald Trump than it is about the two candidates.'
Green serves as chair of the Homeland Security Committee, and it's unclear how his departure will impact a Congressional investigation into Nashville Mayor Freddie O'Connell for allegedly obstructing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity. The investigation is set to be led by the House Homeland Security and Judiciary Committees.
A former U.S. Army major, Green was first elected to office in the Tennessee General Assembly, where Trump tapped him in 2017 to serve as Secretary of the Army. The move, however, sparked a backlash over comments he made about LGBTQ+ groups and Muslim religious practices. Green has said comments were misconstrued, but he withdrew his candidacy.
During his time in Congress, Green was an advocate for legislation affecting U.S. soldiers and veterans.
His first bill after being sworn into Congress was the Protecting Gold Star Spouses Act to allow Coast Guard Gold Star Spouses to continue receiving stipends via the Survivor Benefits Plan.
He advocated against the mandated COVID-19 vaccine for military members and fought for those who did not comply to be honorably discharged.
Tennessee and Montgomery County Republicans have praised his service as news of his retirement spread.
Tennessee GOP Chairman Scott Golden said Green was both a friend to him and the Republican Party.
"Congressman Mark Green is a true American patriot,' Golden said. 'He has served in the Army, served as a doctor, served Tennessee in the State Senate, and served our Country in Congress.'
Aron Maberry, freshman representative in the Tennessee General Assembly, commended Green's work.
"Mark has really fought hard for District 7 and has done a lot of great things in Washington, D.C., and stood with our president," Maberry said. "I'm thankful for his services to our nation, in Tennessee and Montgomery County."
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Sen. Mark Green's retirement leaves open field for Republicans and a 'longshot' for Democrats
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