UFC Vegas 109 predictions: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez picks, odds, best bets
Back at the warehouse where they feature fights.
Back-to-back cards in Las Vegas at the Apex after a highly entertaining card last week gave us two fight of the year candidates on the main card.
It's another weekend of big-time favorites, as just two of the 12 fights feature odds inside of -200 in the matchup.
Below, we break down UFC Vegas 109 with fight predictions and bets for this main card showing.
The entire card is on ESPN beginning at 4 p.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night Vegas 109 predictions
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez
Two top 10-ranked middleweights square off in our main event this weekend, where Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez faces off against Roman Dolidze.
Hernandez is a scrappy, high-volume striker with solid grappling chops, headlined by an insane Peruvian neck-tie submission against Rodolfo Viera.
This is certainly going to be a tough matchup for Doldize, who doesn't profile as well as Hernandez as a striker, and he will not have a grappling advantage to fall back on if things go south in the striking department.
Hernandez's ability to push the pace is critical in this fight, as Dolidze tends to wilt down the stretch, like he did in losses to Marvin Vettori and Trevin Giles way back in 2021.
Hernandez is the clear side here for me, and I prefer to take him by decision at +255 on BetRivers, a rogue price when you compare it to the rest of the market.
PICK: Hernandez by decision (+255, BetRivers)
Steve Erceg is a massive favorite over Ode Osbourne on Saturday
Zuffa LLC
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
From giving the champion everything he can handle and more to a three-fight skid and fighting for your spot on the roster, things can change quickly in this sport.
That's what is staring into the eyes of Steve Erceg, who comes in as a massive -500 favorite in the co-main event.
Erceg gets the benefit of Osbourne taking this fight on two weeks' notice without having another fight booked.
Osbourne, a normal flyweight, as is Erceg, is heading up to a new weight class for this bout.
The 'Jamaican Sensation' is 2-4 over his last six, but he does boast some solid striking that could be competitive with Erceg in stand-up exchanges.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Where I see the big hole for Osbourne is in the grappling department, as Erceg should have a clear path to victory by getting this tussle on the ground.
Osbourne has potential, and there's plenty of upside to his game, but taking this fight on short notice against a far superior grappler is too much to overcome.
Erceg is a -500 favorite, so we're looking for some value, and that's why I've landed on the Australian to win via submission.
Erceg has submitted six of his 12 opponents, while Oscourne has been submitted four times.
This should be low-hanging fruit for Erceg, should he take this fight to the mat.
PICK: Erceg by submission (+185, FanDuel)
UFC Fight Night full fight card picks
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez: Hernandez by decision (+255, BetRivers)
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne: Erceg by submission (+185, FanDuel)
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill: Fight to be won by split or majority decision (+200, DraftKings)
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez: Fili by decision (+440, BetRivers)
Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto: Johns moneyline (+255, BetRivers)
Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan: Pass
Julius Walker vs. Rafael Cerqueira: Fight goes the distance (+650, BetRivers)
Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama: Smith by KO (-175, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira: Fight goes the distance (-152, Fanduel)
Uros Medic vs. Gilbert Urbina: Urbina ML (+350, BetMGM)
Gabriella Fernandes vs. Julija Stoliarenko: Fight goes the distance (+190, Caesars Sportsbook)
Cody Brundage vs. Eric McConico: Pass
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he's showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
6 minutes ago
- New York Post
Bet365 bonus code NYPBET: Claim $150 bonus or $1K first bet safety net for Alcaraz vs. Sinner on Monday
Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information. The next chapter of the best rivalry in men's tennis will get written on Monday in Cincinnati. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will meet for the 14th time in their careers, and the fourth time in 2025. Sinner won the last encounter in the Wimbledon Final, but Alcaraz holds the 8-5 edge overall. Looking to bet on Alcaraz vs. Sinner? The folks at bet365 have a bonus code where you can get $150 in bonus bets, whether you win or lose. Bet365 bonus code NYPBET: Bet on Alcaraz vs. Sinner Use the bet365 promo code NYPBET to snag a bonus for Alcaraz vs. Sinner. If you're looking for a more robust boost, you can also consider a first bet reset, which gives your first bet a chance at redemption if it loses. If you bet on Monday's final, up to $1,000, you will get your bet amount back in bonus bets if you don't win. How to sign up for bet365 Sportsbook What our Post expert thinks about Alcaraz vs. Sinner Both players have been imperious in 2025, but Sinner has looked the more dominant player in this tournament. Alcaraz has dropped a pair of sets en route to the final, while the Italian has yet to lose one in Cincinnati this season. New players only, 21+ (18+ in KY). Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, NC, NJ, OH, TN, VA only. Place a qualifying bet of up to $1000 to be eligible for a matched refund in Bonus Bets if your qualifying bet loses. A deposit (minimum $10) is required to participate in this offer. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Registration required. New customers only, 21+ (18+ in KY). Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, NJ, IA, IL, KS, KY, IN, LA, NC, VA, PA, TN, OH only. Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets at bet365. Registration required. A deposit (minimum $10) is required to participate in this offer. You must claim the offer via the bet365 app, within 30 days of registering your account. Once released, your Bonus Bets will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable.T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
Erceg rallies after early knockdown to save UFC career at Vegas 109
Erceg rallies after early knockdown to save UFC career at Vegas 109 originally appeared on The Sporting News Steve Erceg walked into UFC Vegas 109 knowing his career might be on the line. He left with his hand raised, halting a three-fight skid. The Australian won a gritty unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) over Ode Osbourne, surviving a first-round knockdown before grinding out the final two rounds. MORE:Reyes talks up Ulberg ahead of UFC Perth All three judges scored the fight for Erceg, who admitted the result wasn't pretty - but it may have been the most important win of his career. Just 15-months-ago, Erceg was fighting for UFC gold against Alexandre Pantoja. Fast forward to Sunday, and he was fighting to stay employed by the promotion. Three straight losses had shaken his self-belief and placed him firmly on the chopping block. "Unfortunately, I'm on three losses and I could be fighting for my contract," Erceg told MMA Fighting prior to the bout. Originally booked to face Alex Perez, Erceg saw two opponents withdraw before landing Osbourne - a dangerous knockout artist coming off of a win. Despite being the betting favourite, the 30-year-old understood the test that he had in-front of him. Osbourne made his intentions clear in the first round, tagging Erceg with a crisp check hook that sent the Aussie to the canvas. The second round was tighter. Osbourne still landed clean but began to slow down, while Erceg pressed forward with grappling and clinch-work. By the third round, Erceg had taken control - he shot for a takedown early, securing the mount, and riding out long stretches of control time. "I had his back in the second [round]. The striking was close in the second [round]. I thought I won," said Erceg in the post-fight interview. "I wanted to make a statement about how tough I am." Erceg now hopes to ride the momentum into a quick turnaround - and a spot on the UFC's Perth card in September. "Yeah, I think I can at the moment for sure," he said.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Yahoo
Paulo Pezzolano caught everybody off guard with QPR selection - and it worked a treat
Paulo Pezzolano raised a few eyebrows with his team selection for Watford's 2-1 victory over QPR on Saturday – but surprises may soon become the norm under this adaptable coach. Having talked up 4-3-3 as his favoured formation ahead of the Championship opener against Charlton last week, Pezzolano switched to a back three from the start against the Hoops. More: AS IT HAPPENED: Watford 2-1 Queens Park Rangers Imran Louza was deployed as the fixed midfielder, with Moussa Sissoko and Edo Kayembe finding space wide and Nestory Irankunda given a free role off centre-forward Luca Kjerrumgaard. And, perhaps the biggest headline of all, there was no room in the starting XI for talismanic forward Kwadwo Baah. Luca Kjerrumgaard scores the opener (Image: PA) The shift in approach after just one league game came as a surprise, particularly after there was enough encouragement at The Valley to suggest tweaks rather than wholesale changes were required. But Pezzolano most likely did not consider this change in shape as a drastic change at all. The coach has been clear that finding space on the pitch and reacting to each phase of the game is far more important than the formation on paper. More: Paulo Pezzolano on QPR win, his change of system and Kwadwo Baah exclusion He said last week: "The most important thing is the ability to adapt to the opponent and to the quality of the players you have. "In certain moments of the game the spaces are in different places and you have to create a structure to take advantage of those spaces. "I love 4-3-3 but the main thing is being able to adapt." On Saturday, Watford took advantage of those spaces very nicely during a dominant first half. With no out-and-out wingers in the side, the Hornets were able to disorientate QPR's full-backs by using runs into space from the wider central midfielders and wing-backs. Jeremy Ngakia and Moussa Sissoko caused problems down the right-hand side from the off, the Frenchman teeing up chances for Kjerrumgaard and Edo Kayembe within the first three minutes from that side. While one of Pezzolano's reasons for switching things up was to give his midfield more freedom to attack, another was to "protect the spaces" between his defenders. QPR's array of attacking talent includes Ilias Chair and Karamoko Dembele, neither of whom were able to get too involved in the game. Dembele, in particular, was shackled bar one moment of success against Marc Bola in the second half, a victory for Pezzolano's approach. Watford won the shot count 17-13 and the xG battle 2.06-0.50, showing how little they reduced their visitors to despite the nervy finale. The front two was another win for the system, with the use of Sissoko and Kayembe stretching QPR and creating space for Irankunda to do his thing. The Australian scampered away down the left before teeing up Kjerrumgaard for the first and was a general pest, twisting and turning and showing impressive physique to hold off defenders significantly taller and broader. His positioning also solved one of the key issues from Charlton, where Kjerrumgaard was left far too isolated in the centre-forward position. The Dane spoke after this win about how much he enjoyed playing with a partner on a day when he proved match-winner with a quickfire double. Kwadwo Baah, meanwhile, is some sub to be bringing on when you have the lead on 55 minutes. Had Watford lost this game, the reaction to the omission of Baah from the start may have been very different – but instead the decision paid off nicely. Marc Bola in action (Image: PA) Whether 3-5-2 is the way forward is unclear, particularly with the eventual aim surely to have Baah and Irankunda on the field at the same time, potentially from the off at Swansea next week. But the fact that Pezzolano has us second-guessing his intentions after three matches is just the point. The Uruguayan presents as a thoughtful, pragmatic coach, happy to mix things up and spring a surprise to confuse opposition – and comfortable with the work he has done on the training ground to prepare his team. The next test is forming a gameplan to beat the Swans without Imran Louza, who will be suspended for the trip to South Wales barring a successful appeal of his late red card. But for now, Pezzolano deserves credit for an unlikely selection that worked a treat.
