Nasa data reveals 'alarming' rise in intensity of weather events
New data from Nasa has revealed a dramatic rise in the intensity of weather events such as droughts and floods over the past five years.
The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer lasting and more severe, with last year's figures reaching twice that of the 2003-2020 average.
The steepness of the rise was not foreseen. The researchers say they are amazed and alarmed by the latest figures from the watchful eye of Nasa's Grace satellite, which tracks environmental changes in the planet.
They say climate change is the most likely cause of the apparent trend, even though the intensity of extremes appears to have soared even faster than global temperatures. The data is not yet peer-reviewed, and researchers said they would need another 10 or more years to confirm to conclusively call it a trend.
The data has been co-produced by Dr Bailing Li, from the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory of Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center – affiliated with the University of Maryland's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, who told the Guardian: 'We can't prove causation yet – we would need a much longer dataset. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly what's happening here, but other events suggest that (global) warming is the driving factor.
We are seeing more and more extreme events round the world, so this is certainly alarming.
Her colleague Dr Matthew Rodell, chief of hydrologic sciences at Goddard, also counselled caution over the latest data, but admitted that he too was worried about the apparent acceleration of a trend in destructive events. 'It's certainly scary,' he said.
The earlier part of the Nasa time series was published in Nature Water in 2023. The researchers used a mathematical formula to calculate the total effect of a weather event in terms of severity measured by the total area affected, the duration of the event and how wet or dry it was.
The paper warned that disturbance to the water system would be one of the most significant consequences of the climate crisis.
The paper noted that the intensity of extremes was strongly correlated with global mean temperature, more so than with El Niño, the influential ocean current, or other climate indicators, suggesting that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, and longer and/or larger droughts and floods.
The Nasa researchers produced the updated statistics at the request of the Oxford-based research organisation Global Water Intelligence, whose head, Christopher Gasson, said water companies are in the firing line of climate change – facing too much water or too little water – or both.
He said most water companies are completely unprepared to cope with the changes under way.
'This is extremely scary,' he said. 'The industry needs to attract investment on a massive scale.'
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization's [url=
https://wmo.int/publication-series/wmo-global-annual-decadal-climate-update-2025-2029?accesstoken=pNLbdBu8q2rFHbkLrdh9YE5cold58Ic7lc47kQiUg4U]latest report[/url] calculates an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will top 2024 as the warmest year on record.
It says global temperatures are set to continue to increase over the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies, and sustainable development.
The unpredictability of extreme events revealed in the new data is likely to alarm the insurance industry, which bases current premiums on previous trend data. This could have widespread effects across entire economies.
The Guardian
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Independent
a day ago
- Irish Independent
Podcast reviews: Does baby brain exist? Do women who have children later live longer and do men really have higher sex drives?
As AI-generated images and Chinese whispers catch fire on social media, many of us accept that inherent biases challenge the objectivity of science and history. And also how evolving technology changes results. Take light. In 1801 physicist Thomas Young performed 'the double-slit experiment' which confirmed light's wave characteristic. But current research suggests dark photons may instead be at play, therefore busting centuries' worth of quantum physics. This is one of the head-scratching subjects discussed in The World, The Universe and Us (Apple, Spotify), a new series co-hosted by Rowan Hooper and Penny Sarchet for New Scientist. Other heavy matter topics delivered with a light touch include an unsettling experiment of inserting bioelectronic devices into tadpoles, in a quest to further understand how early development of the human brain might work (hmmm?), and the dubious pros and common-sense cons of mining for platinum on the moon. Is baby brain real? Do women who have children later live longer? Do queer couples share the housework more equally? Do men have higher libidos? These are among the questions asked by Melbourne-based sociologist Leah Ruppanner on MissPerceived (Acast, Apple, Spotify), which queries gender myths and received wisdom. And regarding those aforementioned questions, the answers in a nutshell are: yes, hormonal changes absolutely disrupt cognitive functioning; genes are more likely to play a factor; yes, heterosexual men undeniably do the least domestic chores; it's complicated, but the latest study used masturbation as the end goal, which troubles Ruppanner in the first place – but I'd encourage you to listen to find out how she comes to those conclusions as she even-handedly compares empirical and anecdotal data. Artificial intelligence is typically discussed in its most dystopian conclusions – robots replacing the human race. Journalist George Butler co-hosts with Internet Advertising Bureau's CSO James Chandler on AI Haven't a Clue (Apple, Spotify), to explore how AI affects our day-to-day life. 'The world is changing at a pretty crazy rate,' says Butler, 'and I don't really understand how and why. Luckily I've now got James and expert guests.' These include Muhammad Lila, CNN war-zone correspondent turned AI entrepreneur, and Tobias Allen, CEO of influencer platform Fanvue, as they unpick current AI headlines.
Irish Examiner
2 days ago
- Irish Examiner
Scientists accuse Ireland and New Zealand of methane ‘accounting trick'
A group of 26 climate scientists from around the world have penned an open letter to New Zealand and Ireland criticising how the methane greenhouse gas is measured. In Ireland's case, it may be a reaction to the programme for government 2025 commitment to "recognise the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane, as described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and advocate for the accounting of this greenhouse gas to be re-classified at EU and international level". The 26 scientists, in an open letter shared with the London-based Financial Times newspaper, said governments with large livestock sectors, including those of Ireland and New Zealand, are increasingly using a new method for calculating methane's effect on climate change which estimates its contribution to warming based on how emissions are changing relative to a baseline. They specifically accused politicians in New Zealand and Ireland of using an 'accounting trick' to back their sheep and cattle industries. It is believed they are referring to GWP*, a version of the Global Warming Potential formula devised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Other climate researchers, at the University of Oxford, came up with GWP* about six years ago, as a better way for governments to set emissions targets for different greenhouse gases. They said the original GWP100 method did not reliably account for the different impacts of long-lived (such as carbon dioxide) and short-lived (such as methane) gases. They said different lifespans of emissions were crucial to understanding their potential to warm the earth's atmosphere. Carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere, and even if its emissions ceases, the warming they caused would continues for centuries. But methane does not accumulate, being relatively rapidly removed naturally from the atmosphere. But GWP100 does not allow for this, according to the GWP* camp. Now, a different scientist at the University of Oxford, Paul Behrens, global professor of environmental change at the university, is one of the 26 whose open letter to the Financial Times warned some governments are misapplying GWP*, to justify allowing emissions to remain flat rather than decline. They warned this could set a precedent, allowing other countries to justify minimal reductions in methane emissions, and jeopardising commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement as well as the Global Methane Pledge launched in 2021. Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford University's physics department, and one of the scientists behind GWP*, said governments, not scientists, must decide whether farmers should undo past warming from herd growth. He still supports separate targets for methane and carbon dioxide, saying GWP100 overstates the warming impact of constant methane emissions, and is slow to reflect the impact of emission changes. Read More Rise in low-emission slurry spreading puts Ireland on track for ammonia target
Irish Examiner
2 days ago
- Irish Examiner
Nasa data reveals 'alarming' rise in intensity of weather events
New data from Nasa has revealed a dramatic rise in the intensity of weather events such as droughts and floods over the past five years. The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer lasting and more severe, with last year's figures reaching twice that of the 2003-2020 average. The steepness of the rise was not foreseen. The researchers say they are amazed and alarmed by the latest figures from the watchful eye of Nasa's Grace satellite, which tracks environmental changes in the planet. They say climate change is the most likely cause of the apparent trend, even though the intensity of extremes appears to have soared even faster than global temperatures. The data is not yet peer-reviewed, and researchers said they would need another 10 or more years to confirm to conclusively call it a trend. The data has been co-produced by Dr Bailing Li, from the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory of Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center – affiliated with the University of Maryland's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, who told the Guardian: 'We can't prove causation yet – we would need a much longer dataset. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly what's happening here, but other events suggest that (global) warming is the driving factor. We are seeing more and more extreme events round the world, so this is certainly alarming. Her colleague Dr Matthew Rodell, chief of hydrologic sciences at Goddard, also counselled caution over the latest data, but admitted that he too was worried about the apparent acceleration of a trend in destructive events. 'It's certainly scary,' he said. The earlier part of the Nasa time series was published in Nature Water in 2023. The researchers used a mathematical formula to calculate the total effect of a weather event in terms of severity measured by the total area affected, the duration of the event and how wet or dry it was. The paper warned that disturbance to the water system would be one of the most significant consequences of the climate crisis. The paper noted that the intensity of extremes was strongly correlated with global mean temperature, more so than with El Niño, the influential ocean current, or other climate indicators, suggesting that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, and longer and/or larger droughts and floods. The Nasa researchers produced the updated statistics at the request of the Oxford-based research organisation Global Water Intelligence, whose head, Christopher Gasson, said water companies are in the firing line of climate change – facing too much water or too little water – or both. He said most water companies are completely unprepared to cope with the changes under way. 'This is extremely scary,' he said. 'The industry needs to attract investment on a massive scale.' Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization's [url= report[/url] calculates an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will top 2024 as the warmest year on record. It says global temperatures are set to continue to increase over the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies, and sustainable development. The unpredictability of extreme events revealed in the new data is likely to alarm the insurance industry, which bases current premiums on previous trend data. This could have widespread effects across entire economies. The Guardian
