Ex-RBA Board Member Urges Rate Pause Over Excess Fiscal Spending
At the same time, elevated global uncertainty driven by US President Donald Trump's tariff program means the 'wise move' would be to stand pat at 4.1%, said McKibbin, who served on the RBA's board from 2001 to 2011.
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Major question RBA governor didn't want to answer as interest rate cut avoids 'all out attack' from mortgage holders
Hello and welcome to Yahoo Finance's live coverage of today's interest rate decision from the RBA. Governor Michelle Bullock has cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent. Bullock stunned Australians in July after she held the cash rate at 3.85 per cent despite strong inflation data. The notoriously-cautious Bullock risked an "all-out attack on the RBA's legitimacy" if she and the board held the rate at 3.85 per cent, Finder's Graham Cooke had warned. Bullock became frustrated with concerns over productivity at her press conference, telling several journalists that should not be the focus and instead inflation and unemployment under control should be. Macquarie Bank became the first Australian bank to announce it would be passing on the RBA's decision to lower interest rates. We'll be bringing you all the reaction to the decision here. Bullock frustrated over repeat question Michele Bullock appears to be increasingly frustrated over questions about productivity, particularly because she says it's something the RBA "ultimately doesn't have control over". "I mean, everyone's got so many questions about productivity. The news here isn't productivity. The news here is that this is our third decrease in interest rates," she said. "We've had 75 basis points now. And our inflation is gradually returning sustainably to the target and the unemployment rate is remaining pretty low in an historical sense. That is the good news here. "And so far that doesn't suggest we've had interest rates too high. You might remember we were in this room maybe a year ago being criticised for not taking interest rates high enough. So I think that's the news that we should be focusing on." The RBA did state in its monetary policy statement following the cut that Australia was facing "continued weak productivity outcomes". That was concerning enough for the RBA to take he step of lowering its forecast for future productivity growth, from around 1 per cent per annum to just 0.7 per cent. Labor MP Sally Sitou said concern over productivity was nothing new, telling ABC's Afternoon Briefing it had flatlined with the previous Coalition government. "It is something we are squarely focused on and that is why we have the Productivity Roundtable in a couple of weeks," she said. Which banks are passing on interest rate cut and when? There's been a slew of moves made in the last couple of hours, all while we've been following the RBA governor's presser and experts reactions to the board's call. Borrowers are probably most interested in what this all means for their bottom line. So, here's a round up of the interest rate cut changes we know so far: ANZ is yet to announce if and when customers will get the cut. NAB cutting rates NAB has posted details of when it will cut interest rates and we have another date in the mix. It will reduce it's standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.25 per cent from August 25. That's a couple days after CBA and a day before Westpac. NAB is another bank you need to opt in for a change to your mortgage repayment so reach out if that's you. Another interesting tidbit. You may not know the bank unloan. It was created by Commonwealth Bank in 2022 to offer "Australia's first digital home loan with a discount that increases every year for up to 30 years". Unlike the major bank that backs it, unloan will deliver its interest rate cut from today. Commonwealth Bank, ANZ to deliver mortgage relief before Westpac as NAB customers await interest rate cut details Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and ANZ will be the first of the Big Four banks to provide mortgage relief to customers on variable rates. Homeowners with those two banks will receive a 0.25 per cent reduction on their interest repayments from August 22. Westpac customers will have to wait until August 26 for the Reserve Bank's decision to flow to them. Those with NAB are still in the dark about whether the bank will pass on the RBA's interest rate cut. Canstar's data insights director, Sally Tindall, said CBA and ANZ's decision will likely pave the way for other lenders to follow in their footsteps. 'This move from Australia's two biggest banks puts pressure on the entire mortgage market to do the right thing and pass this RBA cut on in full to variable customers," she said. 'After three cuts this year, many borrowers will finally start to feel some breathing room, even if repayments are still far higher than they were two years ago. 'Many smaller banks are unlikely to make their post-RBA announcement straight away, so keep an eye on what your lender announces and make sure you get the rate cut you deserve. Bullock stands by July hold There was plenty of surprise and criticism over the RBA's decision in July to hold the cash rate, but Michele Bullock says in hindsight it was the right call. She said it gave the board the time to pause and assess "volatile" numbers and see if anything had been "underestimated". She was then asked if the three board members who voted to cut last month delivered a "told you so" moment this meeting. Laughing with the room, Bullock said that wasn't the case. RBA doesn't have a target rate Michele Bullock has stressed there isn't a target rate the RBA is aiming for, but did point to its forecasts suggesting there will be more cuts. "We don't have a point estimate for where we might end up," she said. "You'll note that in the forecasts we have inflation coming back down to target and the unemployment rate remaining where it is with a couple of more cash rate cuts in there. That's the best sort of guess. "But things can change. And the board has to be taking things meeting by meeting." Westpac follows suit with delayed rate cut Westpac has joined the rate cut madness. CBA customers will be able to opt into interest relief a few days earlier. Westpac won't pass their 0.25 per cent cut on to new and existing members until following Tuesday, on August 26. That's the same day RACQ Bank is giving their customers the cut. The double-edged sword now emerges. Westpac also noted it would decrease interest rates for deposit savers — a move they are able to do faster than dishing out relief. Bullock says we might not need that many cuts Michele Bullock is now addressing media and while millions of homeowners will have welcomed today's decision, she's started by pouring cold water over hopes of future rate cuts. "Because we didn't take rates as high as some other countries, it may be that we don't need to reduce rates as much either," she said. Unsurprisingly then, Bullock revealed a 50 basis points cut was not considered. Warning over further rate cuts With all this talk of further rate cuts, one expert has warned of there could be downsides if the RBA is too trigger happy. 'Too many rate cuts run the risk of increasing inflation and possibly over-heating the property market, making it harder for first home buyers,' VanEck Head of Investments & Capital Markets Russel Chesler said. 'National dwelling values rose by 0.6 per cent in July, making the sixth straight month of gains, with every capital city recording a rise in property prices for the month, according to the latest data from Cotality. 'There has also been growth in consumer spending, with the ABS reporting four straight quarters of volume growth in retail sales.' CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said another rate cut could "further energise housing demand", but he thinks affordability pressures will ultimately "keep gains in check". Markets are predicting another two cuts by March next year, but Chesler thinks it could be "getting ahead of itself'. 'Until the unemployment rate starts trending higher, and the trimmed mean inflation gets closer to the 2 per cent mark, we don't see any cause to expect further rate cuts for this year,' he said. More lenders pass on cut Commonwealth Bank is the first of the Big Four to announce its interest rate move for borrowers. Australia's biggest home loan lender will pass the cut on in full — but there's a small catch. It won't as quickly as competitors. Variable home loan interest rates will be reduced by 0.25 per cent from August 22. That's a week after Macquarie. Smaller lender Athena Home Loans have boasted they will reduce rates "faster than a seagull on a chippy" — applying the reduction from today. "No waiting. No begging. No 'we'll think about it'. Just instant action - the Athena way. Because an RBA cut should mean money back in your pocket immediately," Athena Home Loans said. It's also worth noting that if you bank with CBA and want that extra cash, you do need to contact the bank to ask them to reduce your repayments. Australians haven't seen a rate this low in over two years Let's take a look at our updated line chart now. And it's a pretty sight for all you mortgage holders, with the rate's downward trajectory now well established. With the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, we're at a level not seen since April 2023, more than two years ago. Since the turn of the year, we're roughly averaging one cut a quarter. I'm sure plenty of you out there will wish that continues for a fair bit longer. 'Better late than never' Australian economist Stephen Koukoulas said the August rate cut was 'better late than never' and he thinks the central bank has indicated there are more cuts to come. 'The RBA indicated that the path for inflation being on target is still consistent with an assumed trajectory of lower interest rates,' the managing director of Market Economics said. 'That implies that we are going to see the cash rate down to around about 3 per cent by late this year, early 2026. 'That would translate to two or three more interest rate the major banks, Westpac has predicted three more cuts in this cycle and NAB two. "CBA and ANZ think there is just one more cut to come. All in all, Koukoulas said there were 'no surprises' in the RBA's decision today, following falling inflation figures. You can watch his full take below. Will your bank cut interest rates? We have our eyes peeled for the big banks to make a move on interest rate cuts - it's only Macquarie at this stage. Scott Kuru, the CEO of Freedom Property Investors, said the RBA's move "doesn't mean retail banks are going to play ball". 'In the past week National Australia Bank has gone out ahead of the central bank and cut fixed term rates by a whole 0.25 per cent, taking its two-year-fixed rate down to a market-leading 5.19 per cent.' 'At the same time, we've actually seen ANZ Bank increase the rate on its ANZ Plus variable home loan for new customers by 0.16 per cent to 5.75 per cent and end cashbacks for households who refinance.' On the other hand, mortgage expert Debbie Hay said the delay from the July meeting had put more pressure on the banks to pass on cuts. 'There's greater scrutiny on lenders this time around because borrowers were already expecting relief last month and they didn't get it," Hay said. "Following the false start in July, all eyes will be on the banks to pass on this rate cut in full and quickly. "Not doing so would be a PR nightmare for any lender in the current climate." Will this be the last interest rate cut for the year? Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but readers have questioned whether this cut will be the last we see in 2025. Vanguard senior economist Grant Feng doesn't think so, predicting the cash rate to hit 3.35 per cent by the end of this year. 'With the labour market still tight, upward pressure on costs is expected to persist, suggesting that the disinflation process will be gradual,' he said. 'Given these dynamics, we expect the RBA to maintain a cautiously dovish stance, with further rate cuts likely to be measured and incremental.' There are three more meetings of the cash rate board this year — September, November and December. The markets are now pricing in about a 35 per cent chance of a September cut. The Big Four banks are also predicting further cuts this year. Check out their forecasts here. Australia now well placed to tackle global economic 'challenges' Treasurer Jim Chalmers has hailed the third rate cut this year, and says it "puts us in good stead" to tackle global economic "challenges" we face. The biggest of those, which RBA Governor Michele Bullock has been highly-cautious of, is Donald Trump's sweeping and volatile tariff war which continues to leave countries around the world guessing what will be next. The RBA said in its monetary policy statement "uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated", and remains a risk to Australians however Chalmers says the work of the country collectively has left us in a strong position. Why did the RBA cut? We will hear from RBA governor Michele Bullock in under an hour. But until then economist will be pouring over the RBA's Monetary Policy Statement. You can take a look yourself here. Or this is the crux of it. The RBA said inflation has continued to moderate however the board remains "cautious" given uncertainty in the global market. "With underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate," the statement said. "This takes the decline in the cash rate since the beginning of the year to 75 basis points. "The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply. "It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. "The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. "In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. "The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome." Macquarie Bank first to announce a cut Macquarie Bank was the first Australian bank to announce it would be passing on the RBA's decision to lower interest rates. The bank had its announcement out just minutes after the RBA handed down its decision on Monetary Policy. Macquarie Bank revealed will provide a full 0.25 per cent cut to its variable rate. The cut will kick in on August 15. The race is on now to see how the other banks react. Follow on here for all the details. Unanimous decision Last time we had a six-three split on the RBA board. This time around it was a unanimous decision to pass on a cut to borrowers. RBA cuts interest rate OK, there it is. As expected, the RBA has cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent. We'll be bringing you analysis of the monetary policy statement shortly. How certain is an interest rate cut? The last time the RBA board met most economists said an interest rate cut was a definite. As you would remember, they were proved wrong. Six board members ended up with the majority vote, with only three wanting to pass on a cut (that means only three to convince this time around). We have more data to give the board confidence that a cut would be prudent but The Motley Fool's chief investment officer Scott Phillips has erred on the side of caution. His justification? 'It's a parlour game', he said. 'Pundits,' as John Kenneth Galbraith once said, 'forecast not because they know, but because they are asked'. Scott said economists is 'at it best when it explains' and 'at its worst when it tries to pretend it can predict.' 'Last time, the market thought the odds were 95%-plus that we'd get a rate cut,' Scott said. 'And what did the RBA do? It held rates steady. 'Oops. 'And today? The implied odds are essentially 100 per cent. 'Now, the market might be right. We'll find out at 2.30pm, today.' The finance expert noted that the RBA has said "essentially nothing' new about interest rates for the last couple of meeting and since then there has been 'weak GDP, strong employment (and blessedly low unemployment) and falling inflation'. Three out of 34 experts from Finder's analysis predicted a cut, with similar justifications, and they could be right. Scott stopped short of making any predictions himself. 'I'm not saying the market will be wrong about today's rates call. 'But I'm not saying that it'll be right. 'What I am saying is that prediction is hard.' One thing is for sure, we will know in 15 minutes. Michele Bullock appears to be increasingly frustrated over questions about productivity, particularly because she says it's something the RBA "ultimately doesn't have control over". "I mean, everyone's got so many questions about productivity. The news here isn't productivity. The news here is that this is our third decrease in interest rates," she said. "We've had 75 basis points now. And our inflation is gradually returning sustainably to the target and the unemployment rate is remaining pretty low in an historical sense. That is the good news here. "And so far that doesn't suggest we've had interest rates too high. You might remember we were in this room maybe a year ago being criticised for not taking interest rates high enough. So I think that's the news that we should be focusing on." The RBA did state in its monetary policy statement following the cut that Australia was facing "continued weak productivity outcomes". That was concerning enough for the RBA to take he step of lowering its forecast for future productivity growth, from around 1 per cent per annum to just 0.7 per cent. Labor MP Sally Sitou said concern over productivity was nothing new, telling ABC's Afternoon Briefing it had flatlined with the previous Coalition government. "It is something we are squarely focused on and that is why we have the Productivity Roundtable in a couple of weeks," she said. Which banks are passing on interest rate cut and when? There's been a slew of moves made in the last couple of hours, all while we've been following the RBA governor's presser and experts reactions to the board's call. Borrowers are probably most interested in what this all means for their bottom line. So, here's a round up of the interest rate cut changes we know so far: ANZ is yet to announce if and when customers will get the cut. There's been a slew of moves made in the last couple of hours, all while we've been following the RBA governor's presser and experts reactions to the board's call. Borrowers are probably most interested in what this all means for their bottom line. So, here's a round up of the interest rate cut changes we know so far: ANZ is yet to announce if and when customers will get the cut. NAB cutting rates NAB has posted details of when it will cut interest rates and we have another date in the mix. It will reduce it's standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.25 per cent from August 25. That's a couple days after CBA and a day before Westpac. NAB is another bank you need to opt in for a change to your mortgage repayment so reach out if that's you. Another interesting tidbit. You may not know the bank unloan. It was created by Commonwealth Bank in 2022 to offer "Australia's first digital home loan with a discount that increases every year for up to 30 years". Unlike the major bank that backs it, unloan will deliver its interest rate cut from today. NAB has posted details of when it will cut interest rates and we have another date in the mix. It will reduce it's standard variable home loan interest rate by 0.25 per cent from August 25. That's a couple days after CBA and a day before Westpac. NAB is another bank you need to opt in for a change to your mortgage repayment so reach out if that's you. Another interesting tidbit. You may not know the bank unloan. It was created by Commonwealth Bank in 2022 to offer "Australia's first digital home loan with a discount that increases every year for up to 30 years". Unlike the major bank that backs it, unloan will deliver its interest rate cut from today. Commonwealth Bank, ANZ to deliver mortgage relief before Westpac as NAB customers await interest rate cut details Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and ANZ will be the first of the Big Four banks to provide mortgage relief to customers on variable rates. Homeowners with those two banks will receive a 0.25 per cent reduction on their interest repayments from August 22. Westpac customers will have to wait until August 26 for the Reserve Bank's decision to flow to them. Those with NAB are still in the dark about whether the bank will pass on the RBA's interest rate cut. Canstar's data insights director, Sally Tindall, said CBA and ANZ's decision will likely pave the way for other lenders to follow in their footsteps. 'This move from Australia's two biggest banks puts pressure on the entire mortgage market to do the right thing and pass this RBA cut on in full to variable customers," she said. 'After three cuts this year, many borrowers will finally start to feel some breathing room, even if repayments are still far higher than they were two years ago. 'Many smaller banks are unlikely to make their post-RBA announcement straight away, so keep an eye on what your lender announces and make sure you get the rate cut you deserve. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and ANZ will be the first of the Big Four banks to provide mortgage relief to customers on variable rates. Homeowners with those two banks will receive a 0.25 per cent reduction on their interest repayments from August 22. Westpac customers will have to wait until August 26 for the Reserve Bank's decision to flow to them. Those with NAB are still in the dark about whether the bank will pass on the RBA's interest rate cut. Canstar's data insights director, Sally Tindall, said CBA and ANZ's decision will likely pave the way for other lenders to follow in their footsteps. 'This move from Australia's two biggest banks puts pressure on the entire mortgage market to do the right thing and pass this RBA cut on in full to variable customers," she said. 'After three cuts this year, many borrowers will finally start to feel some breathing room, even if repayments are still far higher than they were two years ago. 'Many smaller banks are unlikely to make their post-RBA announcement straight away, so keep an eye on what your lender announces and make sure you get the rate cut you deserve. Bullock stands by July hold There was plenty of surprise and criticism over the RBA's decision in July to hold the cash rate, but Michele Bullock says in hindsight it was the right call. She said it gave the board the time to pause and assess "volatile" numbers and see if anything had been "underestimated". She was then asked if the three board members who voted to cut last month delivered a "told you so" moment this meeting. Laughing with the room, Bullock said that wasn't the case. There was plenty of surprise and criticism over the RBA's decision in July to hold the cash rate, but Michele Bullock says in hindsight it was the right call. She said it gave the board the time to pause and assess "volatile" numbers and see if anything had been "underestimated". She was then asked if the three board members who voted to cut last month delivered a "told you so" moment this meeting. Laughing with the room, Bullock said that wasn't the case. RBA doesn't have a target rate Michele Bullock has stressed there isn't a target rate the RBA is aiming for, but did point to its forecasts suggesting there will be more cuts. "We don't have a point estimate for where we might end up," she said. "You'll note that in the forecasts we have inflation coming back down to target and the unemployment rate remaining where it is with a couple of more cash rate cuts in there. That's the best sort of guess. "But things can change. And the board has to be taking things meeting by meeting." Michele Bullock has stressed there isn't a target rate the RBA is aiming for, but did point to its forecasts suggesting there will be more cuts. "We don't have a point estimate for where we might end up," she said. "You'll note that in the forecasts we have inflation coming back down to target and the unemployment rate remaining where it is with a couple of more cash rate cuts in there. That's the best sort of guess. "But things can change. And the board has to be taking things meeting by meeting." Westpac follows suit with delayed rate cut Westpac has joined the rate cut madness. CBA customers will be able to opt into interest relief a few days earlier. Westpac won't pass their 0.25 per cent cut on to new and existing members until following Tuesday, on August 26. That's the same day RACQ Bank is giving their customers the cut. The double-edged sword now emerges. Westpac also noted it would decrease interest rates for deposit savers — a move they are able to do faster than dishing out relief. Westpac has joined the rate cut madness. CBA customers will be able to opt into interest relief a few days earlier. Westpac won't pass their 0.25 per cent cut on to new and existing members until following Tuesday, on August 26. That's the same day RACQ Bank is giving their customers the cut. The double-edged sword now emerges. Westpac also noted it would decrease interest rates for deposit savers — a move they are able to do faster than dishing out relief. Bullock says we might not need that many cuts Michele Bullock is now addressing media and while millions of homeowners will have welcomed today's decision, she's started by pouring cold water over hopes of future rate cuts. "Because we didn't take rates as high as some other countries, it may be that we don't need to reduce rates as much either," she said. Unsurprisingly then, Bullock revealed a 50 basis points cut was not considered. Michele Bullock is now addressing media and while millions of homeowners will have welcomed today's decision, she's started by pouring cold water over hopes of future rate cuts. "Because we didn't take rates as high as some other countries, it may be that we don't need to reduce rates as much either," she said. Unsurprisingly then, Bullock revealed a 50 basis points cut was not considered. Warning over further rate cuts With all this talk of further rate cuts, one expert has warned of there could be downsides if the RBA is too trigger happy. 'Too many rate cuts run the risk of increasing inflation and possibly over-heating the property market, making it harder for first home buyers,' VanEck Head of Investments & Capital Markets Russel Chesler said. 'National dwelling values rose by 0.6 per cent in July, making the sixth straight month of gains, with every capital city recording a rise in property prices for the month, according to the latest data from Cotality. 'There has also been growth in consumer spending, with the ABS reporting four straight quarters of volume growth in retail sales.' CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said another rate cut could "further energise housing demand", but he thinks affordability pressures will ultimately "keep gains in check". Markets are predicting another two cuts by March next year, but Chesler thinks it could be "getting ahead of itself'. 'Until the unemployment rate starts trending higher, and the trimmed mean inflation gets closer to the 2 per cent mark, we don't see any cause to expect further rate cuts for this year,' he said. With all this talk of further rate cuts, one expert has warned of there could be downsides if the RBA is too trigger happy. 'Too many rate cuts run the risk of increasing inflation and possibly over-heating the property market, making it harder for first home buyers,' VanEck Head of Investments & Capital Markets Russel Chesler said. 'National dwelling values rose by 0.6 per cent in July, making the sixth straight month of gains, with every capital city recording a rise in property prices for the month, according to the latest data from Cotality. 'There has also been growth in consumer spending, with the ABS reporting four straight quarters of volume growth in retail sales.' CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said another rate cut could "further energise housing demand", but he thinks affordability pressures will ultimately "keep gains in check". Markets are predicting another two cuts by March next year, but Chesler thinks it could be "getting ahead of itself'. 'Until the unemployment rate starts trending higher, and the trimmed mean inflation gets closer to the 2 per cent mark, we don't see any cause to expect further rate cuts for this year,' he said. More lenders pass on cut Commonwealth Bank is the first of the Big Four to announce its interest rate move for borrowers. Australia's biggest home loan lender will pass the cut on in full — but there's a small catch. It won't as quickly as competitors. Variable home loan interest rates will be reduced by 0.25 per cent from August 22. That's a week after Macquarie. Smaller lender Athena Home Loans have boasted they will reduce rates "faster than a seagull on a chippy" — applying the reduction from today. "No waiting. No begging. No 'we'll think about it'. Just instant action - the Athena way. Because an RBA cut should mean money back in your pocket immediately," Athena Home Loans said. It's also worth noting that if you bank with CBA and want that extra cash, you do need to contact the bank to ask them to reduce your repayments. Commonwealth Bank is the first of the Big Four to announce its interest rate move for borrowers. Australia's biggest home loan lender will pass the cut on in full — but there's a small catch. It won't as quickly as competitors. Variable home loan interest rates will be reduced by 0.25 per cent from August 22. That's a week after Macquarie. Smaller lender Athena Home Loans have boasted they will reduce rates "faster than a seagull on a chippy" — applying the reduction from today. "No waiting. No begging. No 'we'll think about it'. Just instant action - the Athena way. Because an RBA cut should mean money back in your pocket immediately," Athena Home Loans said. It's also worth noting that if you bank with CBA and want that extra cash, you do need to contact the bank to ask them to reduce your repayments. Australians haven't seen a rate this low in over two years Let's take a look at our updated line chart now. And it's a pretty sight for all you mortgage holders, with the rate's downward trajectory now well established. With the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, we're at a level not seen since April 2023, more than two years ago. Since the turn of the year, we're roughly averaging one cut a quarter. I'm sure plenty of you out there will wish that continues for a fair bit longer. Let's take a look at our updated line chart now. And it's a pretty sight for all you mortgage holders, with the rate's downward trajectory now well established. With the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, we're at a level not seen since April 2023, more than two years ago. Since the turn of the year, we're roughly averaging one cut a quarter. I'm sure plenty of you out there will wish that continues for a fair bit longer. 'Better late than never' Australian economist Stephen Koukoulas said the August rate cut was 'better late than never' and he thinks the central bank has indicated there are more cuts to come. 'The RBA indicated that the path for inflation being on target is still consistent with an assumed trajectory of lower interest rates,' the managing director of Market Economics said. 'That implies that we are going to see the cash rate down to around about 3 per cent by late this year, early 2026. 'That would translate to two or three more interest rate the major banks, Westpac has predicted three more cuts in this cycle and NAB two. "CBA and ANZ think there is just one more cut to come. All in all, Koukoulas said there were 'no surprises' in the RBA's decision today, following falling inflation figures. You can watch his full take below. Australian economist Stephen Koukoulas said the August rate cut was 'better late than never' and he thinks the central bank has indicated there are more cuts to come. 'The RBA indicated that the path for inflation being on target is still consistent with an assumed trajectory of lower interest rates,' the managing director of Market Economics said. 'That implies that we are going to see the cash rate down to around about 3 per cent by late this year, early 2026. 'That would translate to two or three more interest rate the major banks, Westpac has predicted three more cuts in this cycle and NAB two. "CBA and ANZ think there is just one more cut to come. All in all, Koukoulas said there were 'no surprises' in the RBA's decision today, following falling inflation figures. You can watch his full take below. Will your bank cut interest rates? We have our eyes peeled for the big banks to make a move on interest rate cuts - it's only Macquarie at this stage. Scott Kuru, the CEO of Freedom Property Investors, said the RBA's move "doesn't mean retail banks are going to play ball". 'In the past week National Australia Bank has gone out ahead of the central bank and cut fixed term rates by a whole 0.25 per cent, taking its two-year-fixed rate down to a market-leading 5.19 per cent.' 'At the same time, we've actually seen ANZ Bank increase the rate on its ANZ Plus variable home loan for new customers by 0.16 per cent to 5.75 per cent and end cashbacks for households who refinance.' On the other hand, mortgage expert Debbie Hay said the delay from the July meeting had put more pressure on the banks to pass on cuts. 'There's greater scrutiny on lenders this time around because borrowers were already expecting relief last month and they didn't get it," Hay said. "Following the false start in July, all eyes will be on the banks to pass on this rate cut in full and quickly. "Not doing so would be a PR nightmare for any lender in the current climate." We have our eyes peeled for the big banks to make a move on interest rate cuts - it's only Macquarie at this stage. Scott Kuru, the CEO of Freedom Property Investors, said the RBA's move "doesn't mean retail banks are going to play ball". 'In the past week National Australia Bank has gone out ahead of the central bank and cut fixed term rates by a whole 0.25 per cent, taking its two-year-fixed rate down to a market-leading 5.19 per cent.' 'At the same time, we've actually seen ANZ Bank increase the rate on its ANZ Plus variable home loan for new customers by 0.16 per cent to 5.75 per cent and end cashbacks for households who refinance.' On the other hand, mortgage expert Debbie Hay said the delay from the July meeting had put more pressure on the banks to pass on cuts. 'There's greater scrutiny on lenders this time around because borrowers were already expecting relief last month and they didn't get it," Hay said. "Following the false start in July, all eyes will be on the banks to pass on this rate cut in full and quickly. "Not doing so would be a PR nightmare for any lender in the current climate." Will this be the last interest rate cut for the year? Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but readers have questioned whether this cut will be the last we see in 2025. Vanguard senior economist Grant Feng doesn't think so, predicting the cash rate to hit 3.35 per cent by the end of this year. 'With the labour market still tight, upward pressure on costs is expected to persist, suggesting that the disinflation process will be gradual,' he said. 'Given these dynamics, we expect the RBA to maintain a cautiously dovish stance, with further rate cuts likely to be measured and incremental.' There are three more meetings of the cash rate board this year — September, November and December. The markets are now pricing in about a 35 per cent chance of a September cut. The Big Four banks are also predicting further cuts this year. Check out their forecasts here. Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but readers have questioned whether this cut will be the last we see in 2025. Vanguard senior economist Grant Feng doesn't think so, predicting the cash rate to hit 3.35 per cent by the end of this year. 'With the labour market still tight, upward pressure on costs is expected to persist, suggesting that the disinflation process will be gradual,' he said. 'Given these dynamics, we expect the RBA to maintain a cautiously dovish stance, with further rate cuts likely to be measured and incremental.' There are three more meetings of the cash rate board this year — September, November and December. The markets are now pricing in about a 35 per cent chance of a September cut. The Big Four banks are also predicting further cuts this year. Check out their forecasts here. Australia now well placed to tackle global economic 'challenges' Treasurer Jim Chalmers has hailed the third rate cut this year, and says it "puts us in good stead" to tackle global economic "challenges" we face. The biggest of those, which RBA Governor Michele Bullock has been highly-cautious of, is Donald Trump's sweeping and volatile tariff war which continues to leave countries around the world guessing what will be next. The RBA said in its monetary policy statement "uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated", and remains a risk to Australians however Chalmers says the work of the country collectively has left us in a strong position. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has hailed the third rate cut this year, and says it "puts us in good stead" to tackle global economic "challenges" we face. The biggest of those, which RBA Governor Michele Bullock has been highly-cautious of, is Donald Trump's sweeping and volatile tariff war which continues to leave countries around the world guessing what will be next. The RBA said in its monetary policy statement "uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated", and remains a risk to Australians however Chalmers says the work of the country collectively has left us in a strong position. Why did the RBA cut? We will hear from RBA governor Michele Bullock in under an hour. But until then economist will be pouring over the RBA's Monetary Policy Statement. You can take a look yourself here. Or this is the crux of it. The RBA said inflation has continued to moderate however the board remains "cautious" given uncertainty in the global market. "With underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate," the statement said. "This takes the decline in the cash rate since the beginning of the year to 75 basis points. "The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply. "It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. "The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. "In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. "The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome." We will hear from RBA governor Michele Bullock in under an hour. But until then economist will be pouring over the RBA's Monetary Policy Statement. You can take a look yourself here. Or this is the crux of it. The RBA said inflation has continued to moderate however the board remains "cautious" given uncertainty in the global market. "With underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate," the statement said. "This takes the decline in the cash rate since the beginning of the year to 75 basis points. "The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply. "It noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. "The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. "In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. "The Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome." Macquarie Bank first to announce a cut Macquarie Bank was the first Australian bank to announce it would be passing on the RBA's decision to lower interest rates. The bank had its announcement out just minutes after the RBA handed down its decision on Monetary Policy. Macquarie Bank revealed will provide a full 0.25 per cent cut to its variable rate. The cut will kick in on August 15. The race is on now to see how the other banks react. Follow on here for all the details. Macquarie Bank was the first Australian bank to announce it would be passing on the RBA's decision to lower interest rates. The bank had its announcement out just minutes after the RBA handed down its decision on Monetary Policy. Macquarie Bank revealed will provide a full 0.25 per cent cut to its variable rate. The cut will kick in on August 15. The race is on now to see how the other banks react. Follow on here for all the details. Unanimous decision Last time we had a six-three split on the RBA board. This time around it was a unanimous decision to pass on a cut to borrowers. Last time we had a six-three split on the RBA board. This time around it was a unanimous decision to pass on a cut to borrowers. RBA cuts interest rate OK, there it is. As expected, the RBA has cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent. We'll be bringing you analysis of the monetary policy statement shortly. OK, there it is. As expected, the RBA has cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent. We'll be bringing you analysis of the monetary policy statement shortly. How certain is an interest rate cut? The last time the RBA board met most economists said an interest rate cut was a definite. As you would remember, they were proved wrong. Six board members ended up with the majority vote, with only three wanting to pass on a cut (that means only three to convince this time around). We have more data to give the board confidence that a cut would be prudent but The Motley Fool's chief investment officer Scott Phillips has erred on the side of caution. His justification? 'It's a parlour game', he said. 'Pundits,' as John Kenneth Galbraith once said, 'forecast not because they know, but because they are asked'. Scott said economists is 'at it best when it explains' and 'at its worst when it tries to pretend it can predict.' 'Last time, the market thought the odds were 95%-plus that we'd get a rate cut,' Scott said. 'And what did the RBA do? It held rates steady. 'Oops. 'And today? The implied odds are essentially 100 per cent. 'Now, the market might be right. We'll find out at 2.30pm, today.' The finance expert noted that the RBA has said "essentially nothing' new about interest rates for the last couple of meeting and since then there has been 'weak GDP, strong employment (and blessedly low unemployment) and falling inflation'. Three out of 34 experts from Finder's analysis predicted a cut, with similar justifications, and they could be right. Scott stopped short of making any predictions himself. 'I'm not saying the market will be wrong about today's rates call. 'But I'm not saying that it'll be right. 'What I am saying is that prediction is hard.' One thing is for sure, we will know in 15 minutes. The last time the RBA board met most economists said an interest rate cut was a definite. As you would remember, they were proved wrong. Six board members ended up with the majority vote, with only three wanting to pass on a cut (that means only three to convince this time around). We have more data to give the board confidence that a cut would be prudent but The Motley Fool's chief investment officer Scott Phillips has erred on the side of caution. His justification? 'It's a parlour game', he said. 'Pundits,' as John Kenneth Galbraith once said, 'forecast not because they know, but because they are asked'. Scott said economists is 'at it best when it explains' and 'at its worst when it tries to pretend it can predict.' 'Last time, the market thought the odds were 95%-plus that we'd get a rate cut,' Scott said. 'And what did the RBA do? It held rates steady. 'Oops. 'And today? The implied odds are essentially 100 per cent. 'Now, the market might be right. We'll find out at 2.30pm, today.' The finance expert noted that the RBA has said "essentially nothing' new about interest rates for the last couple of meeting and since then there has been 'weak GDP, strong employment (and blessedly low unemployment) and falling inflation'. Three out of 34 experts from Finder's analysis predicted a cut, with similar justifications, and they could be right. Scott stopped short of making any predictions himself. 'I'm not saying the market will be wrong about today's rates call. 'But I'm not saying that it'll be right. 'What I am saying is that prediction is hard.' One thing is for sure, we will know in 15 minutes. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
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CNBC Daily Open: Markets appear to be unfazed by Trump U-turns
The heaviest of U.S. President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs — a full 145% on imports of Chinese goods — was, once again, delayed for another 90 days. The move should be a huge relief not just to investors, but perhaps most of the population on Earth. The U.S. and China are the two largest economies in the world, according to World Bank data, and a trade war in which imports of each other's goods double in price would probably stymie, if not cripple, the global economy. But markets were mostly unmoved. Well, they did move — lower. The three big U.S. stock indexes retreated Monday as this outcome was more or less expected, since both sides had earlier telegraphed an extension of the tariff pause. Investors could have also been conditioned to expect flip-flopping from Trump, such that threats, promises, criticisms and praises don't carry as much heft as they should anymore. On Monday, Trump said Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan's "success and rise is an amazing story," after describing Tan as "highly CONFLICTED" the week before. There's a Freudian idea in which an individual projects their thoughts and feelings to another person. Researchers are, well, conflicted, on the veracity of the phenomenon, but empirical observation suggests it's not uncommon. Trump extends pause on China tariffs. U.S. tariffs on China were delayed for 90 days, Trump said on Truth Social. It was the expected outcome from the latest round of talks between the two countries. Elon Musk threatens legal action against Apple. Musk alleged that Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by making it "impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store." Musk is the founder of xAI, which is behind the Grok AI chatbot. Intel CEO is a "success," Trump says. The U.S. president's praise of Lip-Bu Tan is a reversal in tone from his previous week's message, in which Trump said Tan "must resign, immediately." U.S. stocks end Monday lower. Major stock indexes fell as traders awaited inflation data. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 touched record highs Tuesday, with the latter boosted by the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut. [PRO] Europe's defense sector could receive another leg up. According to Ben Heelan, Bank of America's head of EU industrials research, one corner of the investing world, previously reluctant to turn to defense stocks, might be changing its mind. Spain treads a risky path by standing up to Trump on defense and China The Spanish government recently renounced U.S. aircraft purchases and resisted intense pressure to commit to NATO's new 5% defense spending target, while seeking closer economic ties with China. Taken together, analysts say Spain has become a rare example of a European country willing to draw the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump. Notably, despite Trump threatening a tough trade deal for Spain, the European country has not faced any material consequences.
