Will CAT's Dividend Hike Revive Investor Confidence in Uncertain Times?

Globe and Mail

6 hours ago

Caterpillar CAT has reaffirmed its long-standing commitment to shareholder returns with the recently announced 7% hike in quarterly dividend to $1.51 per share. This marks the 31st consecutive year of dividend increases, underscoring its resilience even amid near-term headwinds.
The annualized dividend of $6.04 implies a yield of 1.69%, which outpaces the manufacturing - construction and mining industry's 1.58%, the sector's 1.47% and the S&P 500's 1.24%. CAT's payout ratio of 26.91% is also higher than the industry's 23.61%.
This announcement comes at a critical juncture for Caterpillar, following a weaker-than-expected first-quarter 2025 performance, with both revenues and earnings declining due to softer volumes. The company's guidance for "slightly lower" full-year revenues (factoring in tariffs) had raised doubts about a dividend hike this year. Nonetheless, the increase signals management's confidence in its long-term cash-generating capacity.
Notably, Caterpillar has paid a cash dividend every year since it was formed and has paid a quarterly dividend since 1933. CAT has been a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index since 2019.
Over the past five years, Caterpillar's dividend has grown at a rate of around 8%, supported by a near doubling of its free cash flow. In 2024, the company returned around $10.3 billion to shareholders as dividends and share repurchases, and another $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025. Caterpillar has a dividend/free cash flow ratio of 0.31.
It has set a target to continue to return substantially all Machinery, Energy & Transportation (ME&T) free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.
Caterpillar's recent dividend hike bolsters investor confidence in its long-term growth outlook. Supported by continued technological innovation and an anticipated rebound in end-market demand, the company remains well-positioned to generate steady cash flows and drive sustainable growth, even as it contends with short-term headwinds like tariffs and broader economic pressures.
A Look at Some Other Dividend-Paying Industrial Stocks
Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW, a multi-industrial manufacturing leader, is also a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. It has an impressive dividend growth streak of 61 years. In August 2024, Illinois Tool Works raised its dividend by 7% to the current quarterly payout of $1.50. The company generally raises the dividend in August and to maintain its position in the Index, another rate hike is likely on the cards.
Illinois Tool Works has a five-year dividend growth of 7.1% and a current yield of 2.48%.
Illinois Tool Works has a payout ratio of 59%. In 2024, Illinois Tool Works returned $3.2 billion of surplus capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and $0.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025. ITW has a dividend/free cash flow ratio of 0.19. Going forward, the company continues to target a payout ratio of around 50% of free cash flow.
Deere & Company DE, which produces equipment for agriculture, construction, forestry and turf care, has a current dividend yield of 1.27%.
Although Deere paused increases in 2020, it has raised dividends six times since 2021. The last hike, of 10% to $1.62 per share, was announced in December 2024. Deere has a payout ratio of 31.3% and a five-year dividend growth of 18.2%.
Deere returned more than $5.6 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks in fiscal 2024 and $1.68 billion so far in fiscal 2025. Deere's dividend/free cash flow ratio stands at 18.9%.
CAT's Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CAT shares have lost 1.6% so far this year against the industry's 1.1% growth. In comparison, the Zacks Industrial Products sector has moved down 2.2%. The S&P 500 has gained 1.5% in the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.04X compared with the industry average of 19.86X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 14.6%. The consensus mark for revenues implies a drop of 2.4% for the year. The earnings estimates for 2026 indicate 12.8% growth, with revenues rising 4.6%.
Earnings estimates for Caterpillar for both 2025 and 2026 have moved down over the past 60 days.
Caterpillar stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners Up
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW): Free Stock Analysis Report
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): Free Stock Analysis Report
Deere & Company (DE): Free Stock Analysis Report