Is the UK's spate of heatwaves the new normal under climate change?

Euronews

2 days ago

As Brits breathe a sigh of relief after 2025's third heatwave relents, many are wondering whether this run of extreme weather is 'the new normal' under climate change.
Published this morning, the Met Office's annual climate stocktake report confirms it: baselines are shifting, records are broken more frequently, and extreme heat and rainfall are 'becoming the norm'.
The last three years have been the UK's hottest on record - with 2024 the fourth warmest year in records dating back to 1884. Last year was the hottest on record globally, as greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of gas, oil and coal continue to rise, heating up the atmosphere.
'Every year that goes by is another upward step on the warming trajectory our climate is on,' says Mike Kendon, Met Office climate scientist and lead author of the State of the UK Climate report.
'Observations show that our climate in the UK is now notably different to what it was just a few decades ago. We are now seeing records being broken very frequently as we see temperature and rainfall extremes being the most affected by our changing climate.'
How much has the UK heated up?
The UK has warmed at a rate of approximately 0.25°C per decade since the 1980s, with the most recent decade (2015-2024) 1.24°C warmer than 1961-1990, the report shows.
It is based on observations from a network of several hundred weather stations around the country, which have temperature and rainfall data stretching back to the 19th Century.
The number of days with temperatures 5°C above the 1961-1990 average has doubled for the most recent decade compared to 1961-1990. For 8°C above average the number has trebled and for 10°C it has quadrupled.
'This pace of change and clustering of consecutive records is not a natural variation in our climate,' Kendon stresses. 'Numerous studies have shown how human emissions of greenhouse gasses are warming the atmosphere and changing the weather we experience on the ground.
'Our climate in the UK is now notably different to what it was just a few decades ago, this is clear from our observations.'
Is the UK getting wetter?
As the UK's climate warms, it is also becoming wetter, because every 1°C enables the atmosphere to hold around 7 per cent more moisture - leading to heavier rainfall.
The report shows that the increase in rainfall in the UK is entirely due to an upward trend in the winter half-year, from October to March. For 2015-2024 the winter half-year is now 16 per cent wetter than it was in 1961-1990.
October 2023 to March 2024 was the wettest winter half-year on record for England and Wales in over 250 years, prompting widespread flooding in eastern Scotland, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and the West Midlands.
Understanding the upward trajectory for high temperature and rainfall is vital, the scientists say, as these weather extremes tend to cause the greatest impacts in the form of floods and heatwaves.
'We are experiencing more severe weather events in the UK due to climate change,' says Met Office chief scientist, Professor Stephen Belcher. 'They are a potent reminder of our responsibility to citizens now, and to future generations, to accelerate efforts to adapt our society and infrastructure to cope with these weather extremes.'
Observations do not currently suggest that the UK is becoming windier or stormier, although storms had a devastating impact in 2024. Red warnings were issued for Storm Isha in January and Storm Darragh in December, the report notes; a reminder that such storms are an intrinsic part of the climate due to the UK's position in the Atlantic storm track.
UK sea level is rising faster than the global average
For the first time ever, the report also highlights how the UK sea level is rising faster than the global average.
Tide gauge records since the 1900s provide observational evidence that sea level rise around the UK is accelerating, with two-thirds of the observed sea level rise over that period happening in just over the last three decades.
This exacerbates the impact of storms - such as Storm Kathleen in April 2024, which coincided with spring tides and was influenced by high background mean sea levels.
'The storm surge events the UK experienced in 2024 demonstrate the potential for the UK to be affected by coastal flooding,' says Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva from the National Oceanography Centre.
'As sea levels continue to rise around the UK, this risk is only going to increase further,' she adds, and 'as we know from historical events, it is only a matter of time until the UK is next in the path of a major storm surge event.'
Other signs of climate change in the UK
Though all Brits are susceptible to heatwaves in summer, for observant nature-lovers, the signs of climate change are manifold.
The timing of seasonal activity in plants and animals (known as phenology) is recorded in the UK by a volunteer network. Their records show that Spring 2024 was earlier than average for 12 of the 13 spring events monitored.
It was also the earliest in the series (from 1999-2024) for both frogspawn appearing and blackbird nesting.
'Looking at the phenology data we can see examples of how nature is responding to both weather, in the short-term, and climate, in the long-term,' says Dr Judith Garforth from the Woodland Trust.
'For example, the particularly warm weather in February 2024 resulted in the earliest UK average frogspawn-sighting since the series began in 1999; but over the longer-term, hazel flowering, which can occur as early as December, is starting to show an advancing trend over the whole 26 years of the data series.'
'This report is not just a record of change, but a call to action,' says Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society. '[It] clearly shows how quickly our climate is evolving to inform policy, resilience planning, and adaptation.'