National Hurricane Center eyeing tropical wave as season nears, here's where
The official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is just two days away and so far, the tropics are quiet.
As of Friday, May 30, the National Hurricane Center is tracking one tropical wave moving into the Caribbean, but no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next seven days.
On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Alvin, the first tropical storm in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025 hurricane season, is sending swells to the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula, but it expected to unravel quickly, the NHC said.
1st tropical storm of season: Tropical Storm Alvin forms in Pacific: See projected path, spaghetti models
The 2025 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season, which officially begins Sunday, June 1.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, May 22, predicting an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes.
The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season will be Andrea.
Here's the National Hurricane Center's daily outlook as of 6 a.m. on Friday, May 29.
➤ Track all active storms
The National Hurricane Center said there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days.
Forecasters are tracking one tropical wave:
The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of 15N, southeast of Puerto Rico, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave.
The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Donald Trump's order.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
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NOAA is predicting there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
➤ NOAA predicting above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. What can Florida expect?
Forecasters predict:
Named storms: 13-19
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Tallahassee meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, who forecasts under WeatherTiger, is predicting landfall risks as near to slightly above normal this year due to closer-to-average sea temperatures in 2025.
Truchelut looks more at impact than the Atlantic basin as a whole. So far, he's predicting 65% odds of an above normal season:
Tropical storms: 16-20
Hurricanes: 7-9
Major hurricanes: 3-4
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A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service.
The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said 85% of all tropical storms can trace their origins to tropical waves.
"If a tropical wave survives its journey westward, it will find increasingly warm waters and moist air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea," AccuWeather said.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here's a look back at a few of the early storms:
Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.
May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.
April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.
Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex
May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie
May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.
May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.
May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.
The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea.
Since 2003, Andrea has appeared twice in May, including the last year the name appeared in 2019.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea
The World Meteorological Committee maintains six lists of hurricane names in the Atlantic basin and separate lists for the Pacific basin. There are 21 names on each list.
The six lists of names are used on a rotating basis, so names from the list used in 2025 will appear again in 2031, unless a name is retired.
A nation hit hardest by a devastating storm can request its name be removed because use of the name again would be insensitive. Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired from the list used last year and were replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel.
Tropical outlooks are issued every day by the National Hurricane Center from May 15 through Nov. 30. The outlooks come out at 8 a.m., 2 p.m., 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. ET.
➤ Where can I find Hurricane Center's tropical outlooks?
➤ Where will Hurricane Center issue advisories?
A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email.
Contained in the outlook are the probabilities an area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days:
A low probability of development ranges from 0-30% (designated in yellow)
A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60% (designated in orange)
A high probability of development ranges from 70-100% (designated in red)
"The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said.
➤ In a rush? 15 things you should know before 2025 hurricane season arrives
"The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days.
"This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions."
Although many people search Google for an answer to the question "When is Florida hurricane season?" there actually is no such thing.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said, so storms can form before and after those dates.
Tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic basin do impact the U.S., from the Gulf Coast and Florida north into Canada.
The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America.
Predictions released as of May 13 predict an above-normal number of named tropical systems, ranging from:
Named storms: 13-21
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
➤ Florida is No. 1. That's not good when it comes to hurricane season predictions. See forecast
Named storms: 14
Hurricanes: 7
Major hurricanes: 3
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will provided tropical weather coverage daily until Nov. 30 to keep you informed and prepared. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: 2025 hurricane season starts Sunday; NHC tracking tropical wave
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