GeonatIQ Unveils AI Price Forecasting Engine to Navigate the 781 Billion Euro EU Carbon Market
[ This image cannot be displayed. Please visit the source: https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/9032/262081_a4c0f7da648afab1_002.jpg ]
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/9032/262081_a4c0f7da648afab1_002full.jpg
GeonatIQ's mission is to modernise resources and sustainability workflows through AI-powered tools, supporting stakeholders in areas such as commodities analysis, resource intelligence, and regulatory insight. Its team of AI engineers, geoscientists, and data strategists has developed an AI engine that provides structured, data-driven perspectives on carbon market dynamics.
While the EU ETS represents a massive and liquid marketplace, many participants still face challenges accessing timely, interpretable signals. GeonatIQ's models aim to bridge this gap by offering analytics and scenario planning capabilities across 1-9 month ahead outlooks.
'Carbon pricing is too strategic to rely on intuition, so we chose an AI approach,' said Yassine Charouif, AI Solutions Architect at GeonatIQ. 'Our system is designed to decode the market's structure and adapt dynamically - helping traders, corporates, and policymakers engage with forward-looking insights more effectively. In backtesting over a 3-month ahead prediction horizon, it achieved a Sharpe ratio well above 3, demonstrating exceptional risk-adjusted performance and consistent signal quality.'
Recent Research Highlights
A recent academic collaboration with Imperial College London - co-authored by GeonatIQ's founder Antony Sommerfeld, Charouif, and climate expert Professor Yves Plancherel - showcases the strength of GeonatIQ's meta-learning architecture in long-horizon forecasting contexts. The paper, currently the no.1 most downloaded in its category, provides evidence of the methodology's robustness relative to traditional statistical models.
'Our AI doesn't just analyse - it anticipates patterns,' said Sommerfeld. 'We built this engine from scratch using deep learning, signal decomposition, and adaptive training - to help organisations interpret complex carbon signals with greater clarity. With nearly half of EU ETS allowance holders not trading in a typical year, there's a clear need for tools that turn passive holders into informed, active market participants.'
Designed for Informed Decision-Making
Coming Soon: The Carbon LLM
GeonatIQ will launch its Carbon LLM in Q4 - a large-scale AI system designed to read regulatory news, energy events, and macroeconomic signals. Trained using a strict forward-looking approach, it combines historical price data with contextual features to forecast market dynamics initially up to 30 days ahead. The LLM will simulate policy and market scenarios (e.g. CBAM delays, supply shocks) and enhance numerical forecasts with real-time context.
'By fusing market data with LLM-driven news insights, we've seen accuracy improvements of up to 42% in our short-term EU ETS modelling tests,' said Simranjeet Singh, GeonatIQ research student at Imperial College London. 'It's especially valuable for spotting those mid-horizon movements where evolving market narratives can make all the difference.'
GeonatIQ's Executive Director emphasises that the breakthrough lies not only in speed, but in the depth of contextual understanding.
'This isn't just about market sentiment - it's about the AI truly understanding context,' said Mike Schuil. 'We've built a kind of crystal ball here for the carbon market - a system that can simulate news stories before they happen and predict how the market is likely to respond. It's not just a forecasting tool, it's a strategic advantage - and one we'll soon roll out across energy, metals, and other major commodity markets.'
GeonatIQ welcomes conversations with partners across the carbon market ecosystem - from traders and corporates to policymakers and sustainability leaders - who are interested in applying AI to unlock new insights and strategies.
About GeonatIQ
GeonatIQ is a UK-based AI company operating at the intersection of climate, energy, and resource markets. The firm develops proprietary forecasting models and decision intelligence systems to deliver data-driven insights across carbon trading, sustainability, natural resources, and global commodities. Its team combines AI engineers, geoscientists, economists, and data strategists to provide practical, forward-looking solutions for complex market environments.
Read our latest academic paper here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5292236
Visit us at: www.geonatiq.com
Press contact: [email protected]
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/262081
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Better Fintech Stock: Upstart vs. SoFi Technologies
Key Points Upstart's growth is accelerating again as interest rates decline. SoFi will benefit from lower rates and resumed student loan payments. The pricier stock is still the better long-term pick. 10 stocks we like better than Upstart › Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) and SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) are both growing fintech companies. Upstart's online lending marketplace uses AI to crunch non-traditional data points to approve a wider range of loans than traditional credit-scoring services. SoFi is challenging traditional banks as a one-stop digital shop for myriad financial services. Upstart went public via a traditional IPO at $20 on Dec. 16, 2020, and it now trades at $63. SoFi went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on June 1, 2021. Its stock opened at $21.97, but it now trades at roughly $23. Let's see why investors embraced Upstart but shunned SoFi -- and if that trend will continue. Upstart's growth is warming up again Upstart's platform approves loans for banks, credit unions, and auto dealerships. Instead of reviewing traditional data like an applicant's FICO score, credit history, or annual income, it uses its AI algorithms to analyze non-traditional data points -- which can include previous jobs, standardized test scores, and GPA -- to approve a broader range of loans for younger and lower-income applicants with limited credit histories. It fully automates most of those approvals. Upstart's growth can be measured through its originated loans, conversion rate (the ratio of total inquiries leading to approved loans), and contribution margin (the ratio of its fees it retains as revenue). Here's how it fared over the past five years. Metric 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Originated loans growth 40% 338% (5%) (59%) 28% Conversion rate 15% 24% 14% 10% 16.5% Contribution margin 46% 50% 49% 63% 60% Revenue growth 42% 264% (1%) (39%) 24% Data source: Upstart. In 2022 and 2023, Upstart's growth decelerated as soaring rates chilled the market's demand for new loans. Many lenders also cautiously reined in their own offerings. But as Upstart's top-line growth slowed down, its contribution margin improved as it automated more loans and locked in a higher mix of "super prime" borrowers to boost its take rate for each loan. In 2024, its growth accelerated again as interest rates declined. From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to grow at a CAGR of 36% and 245%, respectively. Those are robust growth rates for a stock that trades at just 22 times next year's adjusted EBITDA. SoFi's growth is still cooling off SoFi provides a wide range of loans, insurance policies, estate planning services, credit cards, banking services, and stock trading tools. It obtained a U.S. bank charter in 2022, and it operates as a digital-only direct bank that doesn't run any brick-and-mortar branches. That streamlined approach enabled SoFi to expand at a much faster rate than traditional banks, as seen in its growth in members, total financial products in use, and total revenue over the past four years. Its adjusted EBITDA margin also expanded from 3% in 2021 to 26% in 2024. Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 Members 2.5 million 5.2 million 7.5 million 10.1 million Products in use 1.9 million 7.9 million 11.1 million 14.7 million Revenue growth 74% 60% 35% 26% Data source: SoFi Technologies. However, the temporary suspension of student loan payments from 2020 to 2023, rising interest rates, and other macro headwinds throttled SoFi's growth. It also faces tougher competition from "neobanks" like Chime and Robinhood Markets, dedicated lending platforms like Upstart, and expanding fintech giants like PayPal. On the bright side, two of those headwinds are dissipating. The freeze on SoFi's student loan payments has ended, and interest rates will likely keep declining. From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect SoFi's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 25% and 37%, respectively. That bright outlook implies that while SoFi's hypergrowth days might be over, it should continue to grow at an impressive rate as it gains even more members, expands its ecosystem with fresh features, and profits from the expansion of its fintech subsidiary Galileo, which it acquired in 2020 and now serves nearly 160 million accounts on its own. Like Upstart, SoFi's stock also looks cheap relative to its growth potential at 19 times next year's adjusted EBITDA. The winner: Upstart Upstart and SoFi are both promising fintech stocks. But if I had to choose one over the other, I'd buy Upstart because it's growing faster, experiencing accelerating growth (instead of just stabilizing growth), and faces fewer direct competitors. SoFi still has to prove it can maintain its edge against its growing list of competitors. Do the experts think Upstart is a buy right now? The Motley Fool's expert analyst team, drawing on years of investing experience and deep analysis of thousands of stocks, leverages our proprietary Moneyball AI investing database to uncover top opportunities. They've just revealed their to buy now — did Upstart make the list? When our Stock Advisor analyst team has a stock recommendation, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is up 1,070% vs. just 184% for the S&P — that is beating the market by 885.55%!* Imagine if you were a Stock Advisor member when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,155!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,106,071!* The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025 Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends PayPal and Upstart. The Motley Fool recommends Fair Isaac and recommends the following options: long January 2027 $42.50 calls on PayPal and short September 2025 $77.50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Better Fintech Stock: Upstart vs. SoFi Technologies was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
107% earnings growth over 1 year has not materialized into gains for Genuit Group (LON:GEN) shareholders over that period
Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. For example, the Genuit Group plc (LON:GEN) share price is down 21% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 23%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 7.7% in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 13% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report. If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Genuit Group isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price. During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Genuit Group share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 107%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics. Genuit Group's revenue is actually up 5.9% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted. You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values). We know that Genuit Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Genuit Group What About Dividends? As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Genuit Group the TSR over the last 1 year was -18%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments! A Different Perspective While the broader market gained around 23% in the last year, Genuit Group shareholders lost 18% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.6% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Genuit Group that you should be aware of. But note: Genuit Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast). Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Fletcher King Full Year 2025 Earnings: EPS: UK£1.48 (vs UK£0.028 in FY 2024)
Explore Fletcher King's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Fletcher King (LON:FLK) Full Year 2025 Results Key Financial Results Revenue: UK£3.84m (flat on FY 2024). Net income: UK£153.0k (down 46% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 7.4% in FY 2024). EPS: UK£1.48. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Fletcher King shares are up 5.6% from a week ago. Risk Analysis We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Fletcher King (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
