Which Mag 7 stocks will be the top performers this earnings season?

Yahoo

6 days ago

The latest earnings season will be another test for the "Magnificent 7" tech behemoths, some of which have recovered more recently following a turbulent start to 2025.
The emergence of DeepSeek's cheaper artificial intelligence (AI) model in January raised questions over the level of spending on the technology by the major US companies and rattled investors.
These questions were front of mind when going into the first earnings season of the year, in addition to increasingly high expectations from investors as to what to expect from the performance of these companies.
US president Donald Trump's announcement of unveiling of sweeping tariffs on what he dubbed "Liberation Day" on 2 April also rocked the Mag 7, as well as markets more broadly.
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However, Trump announcing a 90-day pause on many higher tariffs, followed by a further extension for trading partners to negotiate deals until 1 August, offered some relief to investors.
Any signs of progress on tariff negotiations has buoyed investor confidence and has seen them pile back into tech stocks.
Despite Mag 7 stocks recovering some ground over the past few months, tariff uncertainty continues to loom over markets and this group of tech giants as the second half of the year gets underway.
With that in mind, here's more detail on what to expect from the Mag 7 this earnings season.
Tesla (TSLA) – Releases second quarter earnings on Wednesday 23 July
Shares in electric vehicle (EV) company Tesla (TSLA) are down nearly 19% year-to-date, despite rising as CEO Elon Musk stepped back from Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and said he planned to put more time back into the EV company.
Musk's public feud with Trump, following his departure from Washington, has weighed on Tesla (TSLA) shares.
Meanwhile, sales of Tesla (TSLA) vehicles have continued to fall, amid backlash against Musk's political activities, with the company also facing increasing competition from rival EV makers.
In figures released early in July, Tesla (TSLA) delivered 384,122 vehicles globally in the second quarter, a drop of 13.5% for the same period last year.
Tesla's (TSLA) first quarter earnings missed analyst expectations, with the company posting revenue of $19.34bn (£14.3bn), compared to a Bloomberg consensus estimate of $21.37bn. Adjusted earnings of $0.27 per share, also fell short of the $0.43 expected on Wall Street.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG said that "expectations are muted" going into Tesla's latest results as "underlying concerns about demand, profitability, and brand damage remain front and centre".
"Last quarter was bruising: revenue declined, earnings missed heavily, and management pulled its full-year guidance," he said. "This time, investors want more than just autonomous hype – they want clarity on the health of the core car business."
He added: "Margins will be critical. Price cuts have propped up volumes but eroded profitability. Meanwhile, the political fallout surrounding CEO Elon Musk is increasingly material."
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) – Releases second quarter results on Wednesday 23 July
One area of focus going into Google-parent Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) second quarter results on Wednesday will be fears around increasing competition in search from AI chatbots.
Reuters recently reported that OpenAI was set to release an AI-powered web browser that would challenge Alphabet's Google Chrome.
At the same time, CNBC reported last week that OpenAI has said it will use Google's cloud infrastructure for its ChatGPT AI assistant.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that going into Alphabet's second quarter results there's "still a raging debate about the future of Google search" amid fresh competition from language models like ChatGPT.
"Markets are expecting a slight slowdown in services growth, which includes Google advertising and other subscription revenue, to around 8.5%," he said.
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"Cloud growth is the other key driver for Alphabet, with Google Cloud looking much more competitive for AI workloads than it was in previous cloud wars," Britzman said. "Top-line cloud growth of 26% is expected, and investors will have one eye on margins as AI investment into both cloud infrastructure and its Gemini language models continues at pace."
He added: "Alphabet has a quality lineup of businesses, but its long-standing crown as the entry point to the internet is under pressure, and that's put the valuation under strain."
Alphabet's first quarter results, released in April, beat expectations, with revenue of $90.2bn compared to Bloomberg consensus estimates of $89.1bn. Earnings per share (EPS) of $2.81 also bested forecasts of $2.01.
Google Services revenue rose 10% to $77.3bn, which Alphabet said reflected strong performance across Google Search and other Google subscriptions, platforms, and devices, and YouTube ads. Meanwhile, Google cloud revenues were up 28% in the first quarter to $12.3bn.
Alphabet shares rose after the release of its first quarter results, though the stock is trading just above the flatline year-to-date.
Microsoft (MSFT) – Releases fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday 30 July
Reports of a collaboration with Alphabet, signals OpenAI's latest efforts to diversify away from its major backer Microsoft (MSFT), which used to be its exclusive cloud computing capacity provider.
In fact, other reports have suggested that talks over the future of Open AI and Microsoft's partnership have turned fractious.
Despite tensions over the future of the team-up, which has been a boon for Microsoft in benefitting from being able to sell OpenAI's technologies to its customers, shares are still up 21% year-to-date.
Hargreaves Lansdown's Britzman said: "Microsoft is the king of quietly going about its business and nailing execution along the way."
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He said that cloud performance through Microsoft Azure was stronger than expected last quarter "and there could be some upside to guidance of 34-35% growth in next week's fourth quarter results if it's been able to bring more supply online."
"Margins will be in focus as eye-watering AI investment continues, but as supply/demand dynamics become more favourable there should be a natural tailwind," he said.
Britzman added that there will also be "keen interest in how efforts to boost efficiency are progressing".
"Recent reports suggest Microsoft has already saved over $500m in annual costs by integrating AI into its customer service functions," he said. "Some analysts think there's much more to come and will be keeping an eye out for any further commentary on AI driven cost savings."
Microsoft's third quarter earnings, released at the end of April, beat expectations with the company reporting revenue of $70bn versus estimates of $68.4bn, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Earnings per share of $3.46 also beat estimates of $3.21.
Meta (META) – Releases second quarter results on Wednesday 30 July
In its quest to lead the AI race, Facebook-parent Meta (META) has reportedly been snapping up talent from rivals, luring in top performers with eye-watering compensation packages.
In addition, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced last week that the company plans to build several massive data centers across the US, including one it expects to come online next year.
Shares in Meta are up more than 20% so far this year, with the stock rising following the release of its first quarter earnings at the end of April.
Meta posted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.43 on revenue of $42.3bn for the first quarter, besting expectations of EPS of $5.25 on revenue of $41.3bn, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
For the second quarter, Meta said it expected revenue to come in at between $42.5bn and $45.5bn, ahead of Wall Street's expectations of $44bn.
At the same time, AJ Bell's Coatsworth said: "Tariff uncertainties also threaten to dampen advertising activity, which is a risk to Meta's social media networks and to Alphabet's YouTube platform.
"If companies are worried about a slowdown in the economy, they might be less willing to spend big on promotions. Both Meta and Alphabet make a lot of money from carrying advertisements so they would be in the firing line if corporates pull back on marketing activities."
Apple (AAPL) – Releases third quarter results on Thursday 31 July
Shares in Apple (AAPL) are down nearly 15% year-to-date, as tariff headwinds have weighed on the iPhone-maker.
Apple CEO Tim Cook warned in a second quarter earnings call at the beginning of May that tariffs were expected to add $900m to costs in the third quarter.
Hargreaves Lansdown's Britzman said that this "sounds big, but is relatively small in the grand scheme of things".
Apple's second quarter results topped estimates, with revenue of $95.4bn compared to forecasts of $94.5bn, and EPS of $1.65 compared to expectations of $1.62.
Britzman said that investors will "hoping for more meat on the AI bone" in this latest set of results. "Apple's relatively disappointing developer conference had a distinct lack of news on the AI strategy and investors are rightly looking for some updates," he said.
"Apple's approach to AI has fallen well short of what investors and consumers have come to expect from one of the world's leading brands," he added. "Apple Intelligence has so far failed to deliver the game changing experience that was promised, so investors should watch out any updates on new AI features and where Apple stands with Siri, another product with huge potential but poor execution."
Amazon (AMZN) – Releases second quarter results on Thursday 31 July
For Amazon (AMZN), a major focus of its results will be on the growth of its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud business.
Britzman said that while AWS recorded 17% growth in the first quarter, this lagged competition. "The aggressive 2025 investment guide is key and mirrors sentiments from other mega-cap players," he said. "Like Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon noted it was leaving some cloud growth on the table as it couldn't ramp up AI computer capacity fast enough – so the supply/demand dynamic will be closely watched."
He said that investors will also be keeping an eye on its retail business, given looming tariff uncertainty but added that performance has so far "held up well, with no clear signs of a demand slowdown".
"Dominant players are best placed to not only ride out slower growth but also use their scale to gain market share," he added. "Margins are worth keeping an eye on too, there should be a benefit in the coming quarters from the scaling up of facilities and increased use of robotics."
Overall in the first quarter, Amazon beat estimates, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59 on revenue of $155.7bn. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $155.1bn, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
However, the guidance it gave at the time for the second quarter disappointed against expectations. The Seattle-based group said it expected operating income of between $13bn and $17.5bn for the quarter, down from $14.7bn a year earlier and below Wall Street's forecast of $17.7bn.
Shares fell after the release of the results and are trading just 3.5% in the green year-to-date.
Nvidia (NVDA) – Releases second quarter results on Wednesday 27 August
As an enabler of the AI boom, chipmaker Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings have become a major event in the earnings calendar, with some build up to the release of its results as it tends to report later in the season.
Investor expectations have become increasingly high around Nvidia's earnings, with markets sensitive to any signs of slowdown for the chip giant.
The stock has seen a marked rebound following turbulence in the first few months of the year amid the DeepSeek AI market shock and Trump's tariff agenda.
The Trump administration imposed curbs on the sale of Nvidia's H20 AI chips to China in April. Shares popped last week after the company said that it would resume sales of its H20 chips in China. Nvidia said that the US government had assured the company that licences will be granted, with the chipmaker adding that it hoped to start deliveries soon.
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The recovery in Nvidia shares since mid-April lows has meant the stock is now up 25% year-to-date and recently saw the company become the first publicly traded company to pass the $4tn market capitalisation milestone.
In the first quarter, Nvidia beat expectations, posting revenue of $44.1bn compared to an expected $43.29bn. The chipmaker guided to revenue of $45bn, plus or minus 2% for the second quarter.
Going into the second quarter earnings, Britzman warned that investors shouldn't expect "any meaningful impact" from the recent turnaround on H20 chip curbs, given the timeframe.
"However, taking a conservative view, new Chinese sales could drive a $10bn uplift in revenue by year-end, potentially more if things move fast," he said. "NVIDIA may also be able to reverse some of the $4.5bn inventory write-down from the first quarter, providing a direct boost to earnings."
He added: "Outside of China, overall demand remains critical. Markets have already heard from major customers that data centre expansion is a priority, which should benefit Nvidia."
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