Will The Return of Elon Drive Tesla Stock Higher?
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has increased by nearly 20% over the last month. This surge is partly attributed to a general market upturn, but a more significant factor has been CEO Elon Musk's renewed dedication to Tesla after stepping down from his government advisory position. Here's a deeper look at the elements driving the Tesla surge.
Elon Musk officially resigned from his position as a special government employee at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) last week. This departure enables him to concentrate more fully on Tesla's present challenges. Tesla has seen a drop in both deliveries and profitability in recent quarters, while its highly awaited Cybertruck pickup seems to be underwhelming. Musk's renewed focus on Tesla will also support the company in pursuing its long-term vision, which includes ambitious projects such as humanoid robots. Now, even though Musk has stepped back from his government duties, his rapport with the President appears to remain friendly, and his influence within the Trump Administration is anticipated to remain strong based on recent occurrences. For instance, some of Musk's associates have been appointed to lead NASA and the Air Force, two key clients for his SpaceX venture. Furthermore, following President Trump's recent visit, Saudi Arabian officials suggested that Tesla's robotaxis could be introduced in the kingdom. Musk's growing involvement within Tesla, along with his sustained influence and access to key policymakers, should be a substantial positive for the stock.
Tesla is anticipated to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, later this month, initiating what could become a significant new venture. The ride-hailing market is already massive, and we've estimated in the past that the autonomous ride-hailing sector might be even larger—a $750 billion autonomous ride-hailing market isn't unrealistic! Discover how ride-hailing can propel Tesla stock to $1500. Tesla manages the entire process—it manufactures the EVs, develops the software, and operates the charging infrastructure. Additionally, it has a significant fleet of vehicles already on the road that can swiftly be transformed into robotaxis, giving it a considerable advantage in scaling compared to competitors. That being said, Tesla will be trying to catch up with Google's Waymo, which has been providing autonomous rides in various cities for several years now. However, Waymo's business model necessitates owning its vehicles and investing heavily in retrofitting and fleet management, resulting in high operational costs. After all these years, Waymo remains unprofitable and incurs losses on every ride it provides. The superior economics and control over the entire system could provide Tesla with an advantage in the robo-taxi industry.
The rise in TSLA stock over the past 4-year period has been far from steady, with annual returns being significantly more volatile than the S&P 500. The stock's returns were 50% in 2021, -65% in 2022, 102% in 2023, and 63% in 2024. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, comprising 30 stocks, displays considerably less volatility. Moreover, it has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 4-year timeframe. Why is that? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks yielded better returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index, and a less tumultuous experience, as reflected in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment concerning rate cuts and multiple conflicts, could TSLA encounter a similar situation as it did in 2022 and underperform the S&P over the upcoming 12 months, or will it experience a significant increase?
While Musk's re-engagement and the upcoming robotaxi launch are certainly advantageous for the stock, Tesla's core automotive sector is facing challenges. Competition in the EV market is intensifying, with Chinese EV companies gaining traction in international markets, while Tesla's diminishing brand reputation, sharply declining resale values, and saturation among early adopters in the EV market are negatively impacting sales. Tesla's valuation following the recent surge is not particularly inexpensive. The stock is trading at an impressive 180x consensus 2025 earnings, and it may take quite some time for the company to adjust to this lofty valuation. Check out our analysis on Tesla Valuation: Is TSLA Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for additional insights on Tesla's valuation and how it stacks up against its peers. For more information on Tesla's business model and revenue trajectories, take a look at our dashboard on Tesla Revenue: How Does TSLA Make Money?
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