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BBC News
4 minutes ago
- BBC News
All three promoted clubs to go down? The stats around relegation
There's a pattern emerging in the Premier the past two seasons the three teams that have come up from the Championship have gone straight back newly-promoted Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland buck the trend this term?BBC Sport looks into the stats surrounding relegation and rates each of the new boys' chances. How bad were the last six promoted teams, really? Points-wise, very bad. Since 1996-97, when three promoted sides started playing in a 38-game Premier League season they have averaged 113 points between 2023-24, Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United set a record-low tally when they stumbled to a collective 66 last season, promoted sides Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton were even worse, taking a measly 59 points. Two years ago, fans could have confidently predicted that at least one of the trio of newly-promoted teams would avoid relegation the following the past two campaigns, the only other Premier League season where all three promoted clubs went straight back down was in 1997-98, when Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace all faced the then, Bolton managed 40 points and only went down on goal there have been four occasions where all three promoted teams survived. The last time was just three years ago, when Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest all beat the drop. How many points do you need to avoid relegation in the Premier League? For as long as there's been relegation, supporters have been trying to predict the minimum number of points needed to avoid what should Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland and others be aiming for? Traditionally, 40 points are said to be enough for Premier League survival. That's because only three teams have ever reached the 40-point mark in a 38-game season and gone are: West Ham with 42 in 2002-03, Sunderland with 40 points in 1996-97 and Bolton with 40 points the following given all three of those seasons were well over 20 years ago, is it time to set a lower benchmark?Over the past 10 seasons, the average points collected by the team in 18th - a total you'd need to better in order to stay up - has been exactly finished 17th last term with 38 points but, because of the weaknesses of the promoted trio, they would still have beaten the drop with just season before, 17th-placed Nottingham Forest managed 32 points - a tally which included a four points deduction - but actually only needed 27 to stay up. What's clear is that those coming up to the Premier League are finding it harder to be competitive, meaning those already in the division can do less to avoid the drop. Over the past two seasons the best newly-promoted side has averaged 25.5 points while the worst non-promoted club has averaged in stark contrast to the two seasons prior where the best newly-promoted side averaged 49 points while the worst non-promoted club averaged only 30. Does Championship performance matter? Leeds and Burnley are two of the strongest sides ever promoted to the Premier League, and before the past two seasons history would have suggested they were almost guaranteed to stay Championship dominance doesn't ensure five teams have ever gone straight back down after being promoted with 95 points or more - yet four of those five have done so in the past four years. Meanwhile, Sunderland collected 76 points last term, finishing fourth and gaining promotion through the of the past 11 teams promoted via the play-offs have gone straight back down the following that stretch, only Brentford in 2021-22 have collected more than 40 points in their season after going up (46). A fast start is crucial How each promoted side starts the season is one of the best indicators when it comes to survival promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived, while taking fewer than that has meant an almost guaranteed return to the be worth bookmarking this article and returning to it on 1 November. That's when all three promoted teams should have played 10 matches - although fixture dates can still be the two survivors - despite poor starts - were Bournemouth in 2015-16 (eight points after 10 games) and Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 (five points after 10 games). Is Premier League relegation all down to money? Why are newly-promoted clubs finding it so hard to compete in the Premier League? Football finance expert Kieran Maguire says money is "certainly a contributory factor"."The clubs coming up do have a disadvantage," he told BBC Sport. "Under the current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), if you've been in the Premier League for the past three seasons you can lose up to £105m over a three-year cycle. "But, most newly-promoted clubs can only lose up to £61m over three years. It works out to £13m per season in the Championship season and £35m per season in the top flight."That £44m gap in budgets has created a new middle class in the Premier League of clubs not strong enough to compete for Europe, but also incredibly unlikely to be dragged into a relegation battle."And turkeys aren't going to vote for Christmas. Those middle-class clubs aren't going to vote for any changes in the financial rules that would increases their chances of being relegated." 'Leeds look to data' - how promoted clubs are trying to buck relegation trend Jonathan Buchan, BBC Radio Leeds Sports Editor Leeds have their own theory when it comes to avoiding relegation. Physicality. That has been the word of the summer so far at the club, who have a strong internal belief that the difference between staying up and going straight back down is height, strength and an ability to win aerial battles in both first seven signings of the summer have an average height of 6ft 2in, which gives you a sense of that thought they need the majority of these signings to hit the ground running to have any hope of survival, and their early recruitment will certainly help that. However, they also need the other promoted clubs' new faces to falter and an established Premier League side, or two, to have difficult data may breed confidence in avoiding relegation, but football is played on grass, not spreadsheets. 'Burnley better prepared this time around' Scott Read, BBC Radio LancashireThe last time Burnley prepared for a Premier League season they'd just won the Championship title, and were comfortably the strongest side in the second tier. They then spent around £100m in the summer transfer window and were still relegated. However, despite relatively modest spending so far and losing key players from last season - James Trafford, CJ Egan-Riley and Josh Brownhill - I think most supporters will feel they probably have a better chance at bucking the trend this time around. The likelihood is they'll probably go down, but under Scott Parker I think they'll give themselves the best possible chance to avoid it. They won't be distracted about an idea of playing a 'brand of football' and a 'certain way' because that's how you need to be seen to be doing it. The promotion last season - and the record clean sheets - was built entirely on a selfless attitude, and a pride in defending and being hard to beat. It's that approach that their season will be built on. 'Renewed optimism in Sunderland' Nick Barnes, Sunderland commentator for BBC Radio NewcastleEight years in the wilderness and Sunderland are now about to embark on their latest Premier League campaign, with the landscape of the league having changed dramatically in that relatively short gulf between the Championship and Premier League is at its widestNow Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton are the shining examples of clubs who have bucked the trend of yo-yoing between the Premier League and Championship, with recruitment models the envy of many Sunderland has its own model of sustainability with a heavy emphasis on youth and academy-grown talent, they have bitten the bullet and spent over £100m in the transfer market in a bid to stay up. Sunderland is being reshaped and the owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus has to be applauded in his ambition. The financial decisions this summer won't have been taken lightly nor is a renewed optimism and Sunderland fans will hope his vision and the incredible journey - the seeds of which were sown with a return to the Championship in 2022 - can continue in the Premier League.
Leader Live
33 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Southampton 2 Wrexham 1: Phil Parkinson gives his verdict
The record-breaking Reds, who have won three successive promotions, kicked off the new Championship campaign with a 2-1 defeat against the Saints at St Mary's. It was an entertaining match which saw Wrexham take a 22nd minute when Kieffer Moore was pushed over in the area and Josh Windass converted the penalty. However, Saints substitute Ryan Manning equalised with a brilliant 25-yard free-kick in the 90th minute and skipper Jack Stephens netted the home side's winner in the sixth minute of stoppage time. Despite not having anything to show for their efforts, Parkinson, who handed starts to six of his eight summer signings, remained upbeat. "I am obviously hugely disappointed not to get something from the game but there's a lot for us to build on," he said. "I thought it was a really strong performance with a lot of new players and a lot of players playing at the level for the first time. "We had chances to kill the game and to be fair to Ryan Hardie, he's not done a lot wrong. The keeper made a brilliant save. "Lewis O'Brien was clean through - a contentious moment - and we probably needed that second goal because at that point they'd run out of ideas. "It wasn't until they threw the two big fellas up top and they went direct. We gave a needless free-kick away which we got punished for and the second goal is a very frustrating one for us because we got done from a diagonal pass and we needed to deal with that. 'I think when we reflect, it's a very proud day for the club playing at this level and there was a lot of positives for us. 'The new lads came in and have acquitted themselves really well but the existing players as well, I thought they were really good. 'That gives us great heart for the season ahead.' Parkinson felt Southampton defender Ronnie Edwards should have seen red for denying a goal-scoring opportunity when he fouled Moore for the penalty and called it a 'game-changing' moment. Edwards was only booked and Parkinson added: 'He was clean through and he gets pushed down for the penalty. 'I've spoken to the ref and said, 'Look, my interpretation of that rule is if it's an intentional push it's a straight red'. 'I saw it from the touchline and the footage again at half-time. I can't see how he's not got that right because it's a game-changing moment as they're down to 10 men. 'I know the ref feels there's a covering defender. But if you're about to strike the ball on goal where he was on the pitch, and the player intentionally pushes you to the ground, the ref's got to make that call right.'
Leader Live
33 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Wrexham: Former defender sounds warning to Charlton
Phil Parkinson's side finished runners-up in League One last term to secure an historic third successive promotion alongside title winners Birmingham City. The ambitious duo were joined in the second tier by Charlton who beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in the play-off final at Wembley. Mills told William Hill Vegas that it will be tough going when his former club go up a division and that it will be less of a struggle for Wrexham who be says already have a squad that can handle life in at a higher level. Mills said: 'Charlton is a magnificent club. I had two spells there, and I'll always be grateful for what the club has done for me. But the reality is, it's going to be incredibly difficult for them in the Championship. 'You've got to look at the sides dropping down from the Premier League - there are some very strong teams. And that's without even mentioning clubs already in the Championship like Bristol City, Sheffield United, and Norwich, who will all be pushing hard. 'Even the two clubs coming up with Charlton look extremely strong. Wrexham, for example, already have a squad that is arguably Championship quality, they can challenge the top sides. So it's a tough division from top to bottom. 'Charlton's priority has to be survival. Oxford managed to stay up last season. It was touch-and-go at times, but they got over the line. That's the kind of realistic approach Charlton need to take. 'Going from League One to the Premier League in two seasons is a nice idea, but right now it's just a pipe dream. The focus has to be on staying in the division and building from there.' Mills says Charlton boss Nathan Jones, who upset Wrexham fans by labelling their story as a 'circus' last season, needs to keep his feet on the ground and he stressed the importance of making shrewd signings this summer. He added: 'Like with any promoted side, recruitment is key. They need to be smart, really pinpoint the areas that need strengthening, and make wise decisions in the market. 'Nathan Jones needs to keep his feet on the ground. He's a passionate guy and that's great, but he can get a bit excitable at times. "What's needed now is a steady hand and a clear, grounded approach for what's ahead.'
