2025 Belmont Stakes prediction: How to use Chaos Theory to your betting advantage
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One of my favorite betting strategies when it comes to the biggest events on the sporting calendar is the Chaos Theory.
Fans of 'Jurassic Park' will recognize the concept, which is that even the tiniest change, decision or break could have an enormous impact on how the future plays out.
The reason that this concept is worth applying to handicapping horse races is that the payoff can be huge.
By now, the entire world seems to be in lockstep that the 2025 Belmont Stakes is a showdown between the two favorites, No. 7 Journalism (8-5) and No. 2 Sovereignty (2-1).
When you convert the morning line odds to implied probability, you get close to a 75 percent chance that one of these two heavyweights will win this race — and the odds are only going to go in one direction (hint: They ain't getting longer).
This kind of titanic showdown makes for a terrific watch for those who just want to sit back and enjoy the spectacle of a Triple Crown race, but it doesn't make for the best betting, especially if you're somebody who loves to go hunting for a big score.
You just aren't likely to make much money backing either, or both, of the favorites.
That's where the Chaos Theory comes in.
Before we go any further, please remember that this betting strategy is a long shot to pay off.
The point here is to build a ticket with extreme upside, based on one thing early in the race not going to plan, causing a ripple effect that completely turns this race on its head. It's unlikely to happen, but if it does, you could be in line for a massive score.
That brings us to No. 3 Rodriguez.
Everybody and their uncles believe Rodriguez will be aggressive out of the gates and duel with either No. 5 Crudo or No. 6 Baeza to get to the front of the pack in an attempt to go gate-to-wire.
But what if Rodriguez, who is two months removed from his last race after scratching at the Kentucky Derby, isn't sharp out of the gate or just gets beaten to his spot?
Journalism trains on June 5, 2025 before the running of Saturday's Belmont Stakes horse race in Saratoga Springs.
AP
Or better yet, what if jockey Mike Smith opts out of that strategy, given how this race sets up?
Journalism is a stalker who wants to sit right behind a target before making his move, and Sovereignty is an all-world closer who wants a hot pace to run into down the stretch. Perhaps that causes Smith to play things closer to the vest rather than go for broke.
If Rodriguez doesn't get to the front, that could slow things down a tad, allowing Crudo or Baeza to take charge of setting the tempo.
Baeza, like Journalism, is a presser who wants to be right behind the leaders, so a curveball from Rodriguez would throw him into an unfamiliar situation, trying to win from out front.
That would likely cause Flavien Prat to put the handbrake on Baeza to keep him in his preferred position.
This slower, more chaotic scenario would level the playing field against Sovereignty.
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He's likely the only closer in this field who can run down a scorching pace, but plenty of other runners will be brought into contention if things don't pick up.
It also would give the front-runner in this scenario, Crudo, a legitimate chance to wire this field. He just went gate-to-wire at the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day, after all.
And if it is Crudo out front, running at a manageable pace, perhaps that causes things to jam up on Journalism, and he isn't able to escape trouble like he did at Pimlico.
That could leave the door open for the lesser of the closers in this field, No. 1 Hill Country, to make a potentially race-winning move late.
The Chaos Theory Ticket: 1-5 exacta box.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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New York Post
26 minutes ago
- New York Post
The horse Bobby Flay couldn't sell has long-shot Belmont Stakes dream
SARATOGA SPRINGS — At 15-1 odds, Crudo is a long shot to outrun Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness champion Journalism to the wire in Saturday's Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. One could argue, however, that this outcome would be no more of a surprise than the circumstances that led Crudo into the Triple Crown race in the first place for owners Bobby Flay and Jimmy Ventura and Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. 'Jimmy and I were going to buy him as a pinhook proposition — we bought him as a weanling and we were going to sell him as a yearling. We brought him to the Saratoga [Fasig-Tipton] sale, and he didn't sell, so we kept him,' Flay, the chef, restaurant magnate and Food Network star told The Post early Friday morning before visiting Crudo. 'I don't usually race colts. I usually race fillies only. But I have him, so he's racing, and he's turned out to have talent,' Flay continued. 'The Belmont Stakes is New York's most important race and as a New Yorker, it's clearly important to me.' 3 Celebrity chef Bobby Flay is pictured next to Crudo on June 6. Jason Szenes for the NY Post Flay, 60, says he's been watching horse racing since his teenage years when he and his friends from the Yorkville neighborhood in upper Manhattan would cut school and take the A train to Aqueduct. The Belmont Stakes has long been a staple of Flay's social calendar. 'I go to the Belmont every year. I usually take 20-30 people to Belmont Park and make a day out of it,' Flay said. 'It's become a tradition where I have people over to my house for brunch, everyone comes dressed in their racing gear — suits, summer dresses, hats. I feed them in the morning and then put everyone in cars and we go to Belmont and we have a day.' He said those nights usually end with a group dinner at Wolfgang's Steakhouse on 33rd Street. But Saturday, the stakes will be much higher. On Preakness Day at Pimlico, in his third career start, Crudo won the Sir Barton Stakes by 7¹/₂ lengths. Pletcher, a four-time winner in the Belmont, gave the son of 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify a few weeks to breeze, considered other options and decided to give it a go in the $2 million race. 'The horse is here, he's doing well, I don't see a whole lot of pace in the race, we've got [jockey] John Velazquez available,' Pletcher said. 'I couldn't come up with a reason not to give it a try.' Crudo's name, not surprisingly, has ties to the culinary world. 3 Bobby Flay is pictured June 6. Jason Szenes for the NY Post 'I came up with the name,' Flay said, explaining he acknowledged raw talent, though on menus everywhere the word means raw fish. 'It's so hard to name these horses. I liked the fact that it meant raw because he was such a young horse when we bought him and he had talent. 'I told Jimmy what I named him and he was like, 'Really?' He wasn't impressed,' Flay added about his partner, who is in commercial real estate and has been involved in horse racing for more than 30 years. 'Naming horses and naming restaurants. If they turn out to be good, the name makes perfect sense. It couldn't be anything else.' Flay spent much of his spring rooting on his beloved Knicks from the first few rows at Madison Square Garden. Like most fans, he reveled in the team's longest playoff run in 25 years and still is feeling the disappointment. 3 Bobby Flay and co-owner James Ventura are pictured with their horse, Crudo, on June 6. Jason Szenes for the NY Post 'I remember all the playoff seasons when we ran into Michael Jordan,' said Flay, who lists the Knicks and Yankees as his biggest sports passions. 'We were good then, but we kind of couldn't get past it. It was fun to watch those guys play this year. They're a really good team and, unfortunately, they lost to Indiana.' Flay said he was surprised at the firing of coach Tom Thibodeau. 'I am. I thought he did a good job. I mean, we beat the world champions. We beat the Celtics soundly,' he said. 'A couple things go different ways and you're in the Finals. I don't always think that new is a good idea, but it's not my team.' His team on Saturday is Crudo-Flay-Ventura-Pletcher. 'Both Bobby and Jimmy love horse racing. Bobby's been terrific to train for, for a number of years,' Pletcher said. 'He's knowledgeable and also always says, 'You can make the decision.' We've had some success together and these guys are fun to train for.'
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Meet the horses running in the Belmont Stakes
The Belmont Stakes is set to host a rematch in New York on Saturday of the top three finishing horses from the Kentucky Derby to close out horse racing's Triple Crown for 2025. Five weeks after Sovereignty won the Derby over Journalism and Baeza, the three horses will be among the eight competing in the last race of the Triple Crown — the series for 3-year-olds consisting of the Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont. Sovereignty's connections chose to skip the Preakness in Baltimore to prepare for the Belmont, meaning no horse would win the Triple Crown this year. Advertisement 2025 Belmont Stakes horses and odds Journalism, who won the Preakness two weeks after coming in second at the Derby, was picked as the morning-line favorite for the Belmont with 8-5 odds. The odds will change as bettors place their wagers leading up to Saturday's approximate post time of 7:04 p.m. EDT. 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Last year, he was aboard Resilience, who finished in 10th place and was trained by Bill Mott. The two have teamed up again with Sovereignty. Mott has trained a Belmont winner before — Drosselmeyer, who won in 2010. Sovereignty comes into the Belmont after finishing second at March's Florida Derby and winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida and October's Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, the home of the Derby. Sovereignty breezes during morning workouts on the Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York, June 4, 2025. / Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images Baeza didn't initially draw a post for the Derby and only entered the field when Rodriguez was scratched from the race two days before the Run for the Roses. He broke from the post on the far outside and came in third behind Journalism by a neck. Before the Derby, the bay colt came in second at the Santa Anita Derby, also behind Journalism. 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John Velazquez will have the mount, going for his third victory at the race. Pletcher's second horse in the race, Uncaged, won at Saratoga in August and at Aqueduct in April but came in sixth at the Peter Pan. With 30-1 morning-line odds, the bay colt will be under Luis Saez, who won the Belmont with Dornoch last year and with Essential Quality in 2021. Advertisement With Heart of Honor, the other horse to be given 30-1 odds in the morning line, Saffie Osborne has a chance to become the first woman to ride to victory in a Triple Crown race since Julie Krone won the Belmont in 1993 aboard Colonial Affair. In addition to finishing fifth at the Preakness, the British-bred brown colt raced in the United Arab Emirates, coming in second at the UAE Derby in April. 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New York Post
2 hours ago
- New York Post
Baeza looking to right a Kentucky Derby wrong by besting favorites at Belmont Stakes
SARATOGA SPRINGS — While many horse racing fans are expecting Saturday's Belmont Stakes to be a rematch, it just might turn into a threematch. Baeza made a late rush from the back of the pack in the May 3 Kentucky Derby, coming up less than two lengths short of winner Sovereignty, with Journalism in between. Journalism then won the Preakness two weeks later, while Sovereignty rested. Now, in the second Belmont Stakes to be conducted at Saratoga during Belmont's renovation, Baeza is the third-favorite at 4-1 to get his slice of the Triple Crown pie. 4 Baeza is pictured June 4 ahead of the Belmont Stakes. Jason Szenes for the NY Post 'I had a hard time finding him [in the Derby] because it was so muddy that day, but once he got out and made his move, he was obviously finishing faster than any horse in the race,' trainer John Shirreffs told The Post. 'After the race, [jockey] Flavien [Prat] said he didn't get all the run he could have out of Baeza had he had an opportunity to get out a little sooner.' Shirreffs is best known for training 2005 Kentucky Derby champion Giacomo and 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Zenyatta. Prat has two Triple Crown wins — the 2019 Kentucky Derby aboard Country House and the 2021 Preakness with Rombauer. Baeza himself is in position to claim a place in history. 4 Trainer John Shirreffs is pictured June 4 ahead of the Belmont Stakes. Jason Szenes for the NY Post With a victory on Saturday, his broodmare, Puca, would become the first to have produced three Triple Crown race champions, and she would have done it in consecutive years. Mage won the Kentucky Derby in 2023 and Dornoch captured the Belmont Stakes last year. Both were by Puca and Good Magic. 4 Trainer John Shirreffs is pictured with his horse, Baeza, on June 4. Jason Szenes for the NY Post Baeza was sired by McKinzie. Like Mage and Dornoch, Baeza spent his first year and a half of life at Runnymede Farm in Paris, Ky. '[Baeza is] a dream to train. I mean, there's nothing I would want to change about that horse,' Shirreffs said. 'He's the perfect weight. He's the perfect size. He's got a beautiful stride. He's got this great appetite. He's the total package.' 4 Baeza is pictured June 4 ahead of the Belmont Stakes. Jason Szenes for the NY Post Baeza is named after Hall of Fame jockey Braulio Baeza, who in 1963 became the first Latin American rider to win the Kentucky Derby aboard Chateaugay. Owner Mike Repole, the billionaire benefactor of St. John's basketball, has a Belmont Stakes championship with Mo Donegal in 2022 and a second place with Mindframe last year. On Saturday, he sends 30-1 Uncaged to the post with trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Luis Saez. Saez won last year's Belmont Stakes aboard Dornoch. Repole's Fierceness will be hunting for an automatic bid to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile when he runs in the $1 million Metropolitan Handicap, Saturday's eighth race. Fierceness won the Travers Stakes in 2024, the signature event of Saratoga's summer meet. Giants board director Chris Mara made it to the winner's circle on Friday. He's part of the ownership group of Bellacose, who won the first race for jockey John Velazquez and trainer Wesley Ward.
