Stocks mixed despite GDP surprise amid hot US producer price inflation

Independent

a day ago

The FTSE 100 struggled for direction on Thursday, weighing better-than-expected UK growth figures and a surprise pick-up in producer price inflation across the pond.
The FTSE 100 index closed up 12.01 points, 0.1%, at 9,177.24.
The FTSE 250 ended down 49.89 points, 0.2%, at 21,801.67, and the AIM All-Share finished 2.17 points higher, 0.3%, at 759.71.
In Europe, the CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.7%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt advanced 0.8%.
The Office for National Statistics said UK gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% in the second quarter from the first, slowing from a 0.7% expansion in the first three months of the year.
According to market consensus cited by FXStreet, growth of 0.1% on-quarter had been expected for the three months to June.
Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja said the UK economy found an 'unexpected second wind'.
'The economy expanded by 0.3% on the quarter. But mind the third decimal. Unrounded, UK GDP grew by 0.345% on the quarter – a hair's breadth away from an even stronger surface print. This puts the UK on course to become the second fastest growing economy in the G7 (after claiming the top prize in Q1-25),' Mr Raja said.
But Mr Raja noted some areas of disappointment, such as household spending and business investment.
On-month, the UK economy rounded off the second quarter with a 0.4% expansion in June, following falls of 0.1% in each of May and April.
April's figure was revised upwards from a drop of 0.3% before.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 to 1.4% from 1.2%, above the 1.0% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Mr Raja said: 'To be sure, the economy is growing. Positive momentum is brewing.
'But animal spirits remain tepid.
'While the Chancellor is poised to focus her budget on improving productivity – a very welcome focus for the UK – Number 11 should also prioritise lifting household and business confidence to sustain the UK's outperformance.'
In the US, producer prices shot up at a faster pace than expected in July.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics said the producer price inflation rate for July was 3.3%, the fastest 12-month gain since February and nearly a full percentage point up from June's rate of 2.4%.
A much tamer acceleration to 2.5% was expected, according to consensus cited by FXStreet.
On-month, producer prices rose 0.9% in July from June, the largest monthly rise since January, and topping the consensus of a 0.2% increase.
Following a fairly benign consumer inflation print on Tuesday, the figures were seen as dampening hopes for widespread rate cuts later in the year.
'After a string of data pointing to greater odds of a September rate cut, the large upside surprise in producer prices highlights the dilemma the Federal Reserve faces in judging the risks to its dual mandate,' said Matthew Martin, at Oxford Economics.
But Veronica Clark, at Citi, said strength in services in both CPI and PPI was concentrated in a few specific components and not indicative of broad-based price pressures.
She continues to expect limited signs of persistent inflation and a weakening labour market will have Fed officials cutting rates by 25 basis points in September and each meeting after to a 3% to 3.25% rate.
Mr Martin is not so sure.
His baseline forecast expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until December, although he accepts 'our near-term outlook for monetary policy is walking a tightrope' that will be shaped by the next employment and price reports.
The data saw stock markets ease, giving back a slice of recent gains, the dollar perk up, and bond yields push higher.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4%, the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower, as was the Nasdaq Composite.
The pound eased to 1.3541 dollars late on Thursday afternoon in London, compared with 1.3566 dollars at the equities close on Wednesday. The euro ebbed to 1.1650 dollars, lower against 1.1713 dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 147.72 yen compared with 147.24 yen.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was at 4.28%, widened from 4.23%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was 4.87%, stretched from 4.83%.
In London, insurance stocks were the flavour of the day with gains for Aviva and Admiral.
Aviva, which has more than 33 million customers and operates in more than 16 countries globally, rose 2.5% as it said pre-tax profit surged 30% to £1.27 billion in the first six months of the year from £978 million a year prior.
The London-based insurer said operating profit was 22% higher on-year at £1.07 billion from £875 million a year prior.
Gross written premiums were 4.7% higher at £6.29 billion from £6.01 billion.
It lifted its interim dividend by 10% to 13.1 pence per share from 11.9p.
'With operating profit up 22% (10% ahead of consensus) and the interim dividend up 10% (2% ahead of consensus), Aviva's recent run of success appears to have continued,' Jefferies analyst Philip Kett said.
Admiral jumped 5.6% after reporting strong first-half results, led by growth in its motor insurance business, where profits leapt 56% year-on-year.
The FTSE 100-listing said pre-tax profit rose 67% to £516.1 million in the six months to June 30 from £309.8 million the year prior.
Pre-tax profit from continuing operations jumped 69% to £521.0 million from £307.6 million, beating the £508 million Visible Alpha consensus.
'Another great update from the gift that keeps on giving,' said Bank of America.
Centrica climbed 3.4% as it said it had agreed, along with Energy Capital Partners LLP, to buy the Isle of Grain liquefied natural gas terminal in Kent from National Grid for an enterprise value of £1.5 billion.
Rolls-Royce rose 2.1% as UBS raised its share price target to 1,375 pence from 1,075p, driven primarily by 'our likely above-management pricing expectations and above-guidance margin assumptions in Civil and Power Systems, where we see further opportunity for turnaround benefits to be realised'.
In an upside scenario, UBS sees 2,000p fair value as 'credible'.
A barrel of Brent rose to 66.80 dollars late on Thursday afternoon from 65.51 dollars on Wednesday. Gold eased to 3,339.74 dollars an ounce against 3,356.28 dollars.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Admiral, up 192 pence at 3,560p, Centrica, up 5.5p at 167.6p, BAE Systems, up 44.5p at 1,776p, Aviva, up 16.2p at 675.2p and Babcock International, up 21.5p at 988.5p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Rio Tinto, down 188p at 4,480.5p, Beazley, down 24p at 776p, Diploma, down 130p at 5,315p, Persimmon, down 26p at 1,103p, and Halma, down 62p at 3,224p.
There are no significant events in the local corporate calendar on Friday.
The global economic calendar on Friday has US retail sales and industrial production data.