Indonesian economic researchers question upside surprise in Q2 GDP growth
Data released by Statistics Indonesia on Tuesday showed Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 5.12% on a yearly basis in the April-June period, the quickest since the second quarter of 2023, driven by robust investment and household spending.
The pace was higher than the 4.8% median forecast of 26 analysts polled by Reuters. The most optimistic analysts had predicted 4.9%. Growth in the first quarter was 4.87%.
However, economists from some Jakarta-based independent research groups argued that indicators like falling auto sales, shrinking foreign direct investment, contraction in manufacturing activity and reports of layoffs suggested weakening economic activity in the second quarter, not an acceleration.
Statistics Indonesia and the office of President Prabowo Subianto did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. Asked about concerns over potential data massaging, Indonesia's chief economic affairs minister Airlangga Hartarto told reporters late on Tuesday, "There's no such thing."
"Inaccuracy and transparency problems are crucial. The government would not come up with good policy without accurate data, and even worse if there is indication of manipulation," said economist Andry Satrio Nugroho from one of the think tanks, the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance.
"Trust from investors could decline because government data does not reflect economic conditions," he said.
Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies, alleged that the government was politicising data to make it more likely that economic growth would reach Prabowo's 8% target by 2029.
Mohammad Faisal, executive director of the Center of Reform on Economics, said previous GDP data had been in line with the findings of his agency, but the second-quarter numbers diverged significantly from all the leading indicators, particularly on household consumption and investment.
Jahen Rezki with University of Indonesia's Institute for Research on Economics and Society said company earnings reports for the second quarter also showed declining revenues, contrasting with the GDP report.
Sutrisno Iwantono, the public policy head of Indonesian Employers Association, a prominent business group, also questioned the data, noting that a lot of businesses had reported falling sales and weak purchasing power.
"I'm not saying the data is wrong. I hope there's no mistake in the technical calculation, the methodology, because bias and mistakes could have a serious impact," he said.
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