Gold price prediction: Will gold stay flat as U.S. jobs data battles trade war fears ahead of Fed signals?

Time of India

04-06-2025

Gold prices steady as strong
U.S. jobs data
offsets safe-haven demand amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions-
Gold prices held their ground on Wednesday, June 4, as fresh U.S. labor data showed unexpected strength, balancing out investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold due to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. As of 11:45 GMT, spot gold stood firm at $3,349.19 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $3,373.10.
The job market gave investors some relief, yet growing global concerns—especially sharp words and tariff moves from President Donald Trump—kept gold from falling further. "U.S. labor data gave markets a bit of relief yesterday, causing a small dip in gold prices. However, tensions between the U.S. and China are still keeping risks high and gold prices supported,' said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.
What's holding gold steady despite global uncertainty?
While many expected gold to climb on geopolitical stress, stronger U.S. job numbers provided a counterweight. According to new data, U.S. job openings rose in April, signaling continued hiring demand. However, the same report showed that layoffs hit a 9-month high, adding a layer of uncertainty to the picture.
These mixed signals suggest the labor market isn't entirely stable. Investors are watching closely to see if interest rate cuts are still on the table—or if the economy is stronger than expected.
How are Trump's tariffs and comments on China affecting gold?
On the same day gold prices stayed steady, President Donald Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping is 'extremely hard to make a deal with.' His comment came days after accusing China of backing out of an agreement to reduce tariffs and trade restrictions.
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In a sharp move, the U.S. doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Wednesday. The administration is also pressing trade partners to submit 'best offers' ahead of more penalties expected in early July. This backdrop is adding pressure to global trade flows and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Will the U.S. non-farm payrolls data change gold's direction?
All eyes are now on the U.S.
non-farm payrolls report
, due Friday. The data could heavily influence Federal Reserve policy, particularly around interest rates.
'If the data is stronger than expected, interest rate cut expectations are likely to wane, which would weigh on the gold price,' said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.
Gold generally performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. When rates are expected to drop, gold becomes more attractive to investors, since it doesn't yield interest itself.
How much movement can we expect in gold prices?
For now, analysts expect gold to trade within a fairly tight range. 'We see gold trading between $3,300 and $3,400 per troy ounce in the short term,' Fritsch added.
With the market split between upbeat labor signals and global trade worries, gold is likely to stay stuck in a range unless one side clearly tips the scale—either through surprise economic data or an escalation in trade tensions.
What's the latest on silver, platinum, and palladium?
Other precious metals showed mixed trends:
Spot silver dipped by 0.5% to $34.32 an ounce
Platinum rose 1.1% to $1,085.50
Palladium fell 0.5% to $1,005.11
These shifts reflect broader market caution as investors look for clarity on rate cuts, global trade, and the strength of the world economy.
FAQs:
Q1. Why did gold prices stay flat despite rising trade tensions?
Stronger U.S. jobs data offset safe-haven demand for gold.
Q2. What role does the non-farm payrolls report play in gold prices?
It helps predict interest rate policy, which directly impacts gold prices.