In industrial belt near Delhi, Trump's tariffs cloud outlook for export of engineering goods

Indian Express

11 hours ago

In one of the many cavernous sheds dotting Ghaziabad, the industrial suburb on the outskirts of the Capital, a giant stands silent. The massive metal forging machine, hauled from China only months ago at a cost of Rs 20 crore, glints under the dim factory lights, its steel body collecting a fine coat of dust. It was meant to be the future: sleek, electric-powered, capable of shaping metal with precision and scale.
Yet, in its shadow, the old ritual continues. A knot of workers, sleeves rolled, faces flushed with heat, gather around a much smaller press, striking molten metal with steady, rhythmic blows. The clangs echo through the workshop like the heartbeat of an older era. For Ghaziabad-based CD Industries, a manufacturer of metal flanges feeding oil and gas exploration rigs across the US, the dormant machinery was supposed to answer the shifting demands of its overseas clients. Instead, it waits, inert.
'Baal mundwaate hi ole padne lage (It started raining hail stones as soon as one got his hair shaved),' Pankaj Agarwal, Director, CD Industries, told The Indian Express at his manufacturing plant in one of Ghaziabad's biggest industrial belts on the Bulandshahr Road.
Agarwal had purchased the electric metal forge to exclusively service client requests from the US, who had asked him to make flanges of up to 16 inches, as opposed to his current capacity of eight-inch flanges.
But, with US President Donald Trump's decision to raise tariffs on several Indian goods – to 25 per cent, with a further 25 per cent increase threatened by August 27 – new orders have dried up for Agarwal, and many engineering goods exporters like him. Increasingly, several US-based vendors are even cancelling earlier orders, resulting in significant financial losses for several Indian medium and small enterprises.
Engineering is the largest industrial sector in India and accounts for 3.53 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The engineering goods export of India had a share of 25.22 per cent out of the total exports during the financial year FY24, as they jumped to $109.22 billion as compared to $106.93 billion during FY23. In FY25 (April to December), India's top five export destinations in the sector were the US (15.82%), the UAE (7.36%), Saudi Arabia (5.24%), Singapore (4.46%) and Germany (3.52%). Industries like auto components and metal works are particularly at a disadvantage.
For CD Industries, the US is its exclusive export market, accounting for 50 per cent of the company's turnover. 'While we are continuing to deliver the previously placed orders, new enquiries have stopped coming in. For some companies, their previous orders have been cancelled, as importers are seeking a discount, which many manufacturers are not in a position to accept,' Agarwal said. His products are supplied across the length and breadth of the US, from the West Coast to the East Coast, and Texas to New York.
'The tariff situation is bothering us, haunting us, and we are really, really worried,' he said.
His plant in Ghaziabad employs 225 people, including floor workers, project managers and quality control managers. For now, he says the older orders not getting cancelled – a fact he attributes to his long-standing relationship with his vendors, dating back 20 to 30 years – has allowed him to not trim the workforce. But if the situation continues for a longer time, he may have to let go of some workers, Agarwal said.
Sanjeev Sachdev, general secretary of the Industrial Area Manufacturers' Association in Ghaziabad, said there are more than 400 manufacturing plants in the belt, which employ over 75,000 people.
'If the tariff situation is not resolved, and the government does not alternatively help the industry financially in the meantime, easily 5,000-7,000 people will lose their jobs. Many companies, who have purchased raw material and made finished goods, are staring at generations getting into debt,' Sachdev said.
Pankaj Chadha, chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) of India, said about $5 billion worth of engineering goods exports are at risk due to US tariffs.
'Unlike other sectors, for us the pain started early on when the US announced 50 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium. At this tariff rate, we cannot be competitive and we are not in a position to retain our market share in the US,' he said.
Sachdev speaks with the quiet fatalism of someone who is anticipating to see too many balance sheets bleed red. Between raw metal and a gleaming finished part lies a steep markup – not just in price, but in labour, skill, and the hours of heat and noise that shape it. Yet that value can vanish in an instant. If an overseas buyer pulls the plug, the goods, tailored to a single client's specifications, are suddenly orphaned, with no other market to call home.
In that moment, there are only two doors left open: swallow the buyer's demand for a deep discount, or consign the work to the scrap heap, where months of craft and capital dissolve into a fraction of their worth. For some manufacturers, it is not just a bad deal – it is the slow tightening of a noose. One too many of such blows, and the factory floor falls silent.
Many in the industry, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that the real weight of the new tariffs will fall not on the industry's giants, but on the small and medium enterprises. The big players can simply pivot, scouting for new markets, absorbing the shock with the comfort of deep reserves. For the smaller firms, there is no such cushion, no easy escape route. The blow, when it lands, goes straight to the bone.
Agarwal, Chadha and Sachdev, all said that the government's help to support companies in distress is the need of the hour. 'We expect the government to extend Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) to the steel sector and restart the interest subvention scheme to ease the pain,' Chadha said.
Vinod Kumar, president of the India SME Forum, said that export-focused countries like China have heavily invested in promoting their products globally. 'India has not done that over the years. This is a systemic problem. The nature of trade has changed over the years. Only production is not going to solve your problem, we have to market them effectively,' he said.