Europe is being left behind when it comes to cheap long-haul flights

Telegraph

2 days ago

Birgir Jonsson, the Icelandic entrepreneur who launched low-cost carrier Play in 2019, had hoped to follow in the vapour trails of Norwegian carrier Norse Atlantic and offer non-stop budget flights from Britain to the US. But Play will soon cease all flights from Stansted, Liverpool and Glasgow to New York, Boston, Washington, Baltimore and Toronto – all routed via Reykjavik's Keflavik airport.
In future, the airline will focus on European leisure destinations. 'We're concentrating on the profitable aspects of the business – sun-destination flights – and discontinuing those that have not yielded results,' said Einar Örn Ólafsson, the airline's chief executive.
Play is not the only new low-cost airline hitting turbulence on transatlantic routes. JetBlue has trimmed some of its national schedules, dropping its summer-only service between New York and Gatwick and its second summer-season daily flight from JFK to Paris.
A third carrier, Fly Atlantic, is struggling to get off the ground. Andrew Pyne, a former British Airways and Cathay Pacific executive, aims to carry passengers from Europe to America with a stop in Belfast, using fuel-efficient, narrow-body, twin-engine Airbus A321 jets. After several delays, Pyne insists flights will start later this year – though others remain sceptical.
A graveyard for start ups
What's gone wrong? Henry Harteveldt, of Atmosphere Research Group, the leading US airline industry analyst, says: 'Very few people opt for connecting flights when non-stops are available. Play's attempts to convince travellers to fly via Iceland when Norse is offering non-stops is unappealing. Airlines fly for profit, not pride. Play's decision to shift from long-haul routes to sun-destination routes is sensible.'
Play's retreat, which follows the collapse of fellow Icelandic transatlantic budget airline Wow in 2019, leaves Norse as the only low-cost airline appearing to succeed with long-haul travel from Britain, with Gatwick–JFK return fares as low as £400. JetBlue does not really count as a discount carrier, as it has business class and fares that tend to be higher than those of Norse.
Indeed, the North Atlantic has long been a graveyard for start-ups. Freddie Laker tried to crack the market with Skytrain, which began flying from Gatwick to New York in the 1970s but went bankrupt in 1982. Norwegian, also based at Gatwick, prospered for a while but nosedived when the Covid pandemic hit and has returned to being a Scandinavian short-haul operator.
The trouble for newcomers is that the London–US east coast route is the most lucrative in aviation. BA alone generates more than £1 billion a year shuttling between London and New York. So whenever start-ups enter the market, incumbents slash prices and advertise their perks to try to force them out of business. These include better food and wine on board, loyalty programmes, a Heathrow hub, snazzy lounges, and a choice of flight times thanks to multiple daily departures.
'The North Atlantic has proven an extremely tough environment for new entrants, with the notable exception of Virgin Atlantic,' says Andrew Lobbenberg, head of European transport equity research at Barclays.
How has Norse survived, even if it is not yet thriving?
Analysts say it began with modest ambitions – and then lowered them further. It acquired only a handful of long-haul jets and quickly axed routes that did not generate profits, including services from Britain to Washington DC, Boston, Las Vegas, Fort Lauderdale, Barbados and Montego Bay – and later Los Angeles and Miami.
From this winter, it will fly from Gatwick to New York just five times a week, down from twice daily, and to Orlando up to seven times a week. It has also scrapped US flights from Paris. The Boeing 787 jets used on these axed routes have been redeployed on new services to Asia or leased to other carriers, notably the fast-expanding Indian low-cost airline IndiGo.
On the routes it still serves, Norse gives consumers better choice than its low-cost rivals by offering two classes: economy and premium economy. In both, it has undercut the 'legacy' carriers – notably British Airways and Virgin Atlantic – by around 20 per cent, even when add-ons such as luggage fees and food are included. Both cabins are comfortable, if not as lavish as BA or Virgin, and the food is surprisingly good.
Unlike Play or the defunct Wow, Norse's flights are direct, with no layovers in northern Europe. They also start and finish at major city airports, not at locations miles from the cities they serve.
Norse has also benefited from some good fortune: since its launch, the oil price has dropped by a third, reducing the biggest single cost for airlines.
Eastern promise
Play's transatlantic nosedive leaves only three long-haul budget carriers in Europe: Norse; French Bee, which now operates six A350s to destinations such as Montréal and Miami from Paris Orly Airport; and Level, the Barcelona-based low-cost carrier owned by British Airways' parent company, International Airlines Group, flying to New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco and Boston.
But that does not mean the long-haul budget sector is in trouble. Far from it – you just have to look east, not west.
In Asia, Singapore Airlines-owned Scoot, Malaysia's AirAsia, Cebu Pacific in the Philippines, and Thailand's Lion Air are all expanding their long-haul networks. Last month, AirAsia announced plans to increase flights to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and explore new routes connecting Kuala Lumpur to Riyadh and Dammam, also in Saudi Arabia. The airline is set to launch a Gulf hub this year as part of its strategy to expand to European destinations, including Gatwick, Manchester, Glasgow, Dublin and Cologne.
AirAsia used to operate routes to Gatwick and Stansted, as well as to Paris Orly, under its AirAsia X subsidiary but axed these services in 2012. India's IndiGo has started flights from India to Manchester and will soon add Copenhagen and Athens. It is expanding across Asia, the Gulf and Africa, offering some 2,300 domestic and international flights a day. Other major players include Vietnam's VietJet, South Korea's T'way Air and Air Premia, and Japan's AirJapan and Zipair Tokyo.
FlyDubai, the low-cost subsidiary of Emirates, is also expanding rapidly. Last month, Saudi Arabia announced plans to create a new national low-cost airline with a fleet of 45 planes, due by 2030. The carrier will serve 24 domestic destinations and 57 international destinations, aiming to transport 10 million passengers annually, according to state media. In South America, Brazilian low-cost long-haul operator Azul Airlines serves the country's diaspora, particularly in Florida and Portugal.
Schedules for July and August show budget airlines plan to offer 2.7 million monthly seats on international routes using wide-body jets such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330 and A350. In 2018 and 2019, during Norwegian's heyday, that figure was below two million.